Billypg70 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 12 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: this 1 minute ago, Orangeburgwx said: I saw that too I understand that down ur way, U don't get a lot of action when it comes to winter weather but I don't think u want to jinx this either. There's plenty of time to get a thread. Let's get some type of general consensus before starting a thread. I'd say within day 4 or 5 with more model consensus. Lord know we need to get Mack & No snow for you some snow this year. They have been more antagonistic & pessimistic than usual. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RT1980 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 2 minutes ago, Billypg70 said: I understand that down ur way, U don't get a lot of action when it comes to winter weather but I don't think u want to jinx this either. There's plenty of time to get a thread. Let's get some type of general consensus before starting a thread. I'd say within day 4 or 5 with more model consensus. Lord know we need to get Mack & No snow for you some snow this year. They have been more antagonistic & pessimistic than usual. We live in an area that has a good snow every 50-11 years. No surprises there! Want snow yearly- move! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Just now, Billypg70 said: I understand that down ur way, U don't get a lot of action when it comes to winter weather but I don't think u want to jinx this either. Hell no I don't want to jinx, and as far as why I don't get a lot of action down here is usually the LP is either: 1)inland 2)too close to the coast 3) too damn amped for its own good Yes, I get more QDF, but pay the price by getting shafted with the warm nose... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 40 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: For Atlanta, the Euro ensembles are still mostly saying no but the GEFS is on board with the majority of members showing at least 1 inch It looks too NW flowy to me for anyone south of the mountains to snow. I know last winter Atlanta got a NW flow snow event but the flow above 850 was mostly SW. I don’t see that on this setup shown 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 17 minutes ago, RT1980 said: No Sir I meant the Jan 2018 thread! No disrespect intended! I think that was Lilj wasn’t it? He’s got the blue man avatar I believe. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RT1980 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 2 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said: I think that was Lilj wasn’t it? He’s got the blue man avatar I believe. Yes that’s who it was. Thanks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 6 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said: I think that was Lilj wasn’t it? He’s got the blue man avatar I believe. For the love of Heaven, don't let the bouncing blue turd start any more winter weather threads. He's bad luck... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 19 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: For the love of Heaven, don't let the bouncing blue turd start any more winter weather threads. He's bad luck... Is he even still around? Haven't seen him in awhile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 10 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: For the love of Heaven, don't let the bouncing blue turd start any more winter weather threads. He's bad luck... Hahaha, I’m from the Tennessee valley forum so I meant no Ill will. I just remembered that blue man avatar from last year and how it hit once for y’all but then the second time he jinxed the crap out it for just about everybody. After the second bust y’all started referring to him as the blue turd I think, lmao. I thought I saw him during y’alls December storm but like oburg said, I haven’t seen his name since. I’d wait till the last possible second to start a thread if it was me but I’m superstitious! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 3 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: GFSv3 6z = Carolinas crush job! Get the keys to the bus! Great to see! Verbatim it would be only a quick glancing shot for upstate and piedmont, but would be a big one from Cola to MYB and eastern NC. CAE is certainly due, but I'd like to see a better turn up the coast for the upstate. Obviously this is just one OP run and it'll change. Good to be in the game! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Just now, AMZ8990 said: Hahaha, I’m from the Tennessee valley forum so I meant no Ill will. I just remembered that blue man avatar from last year and how it hit once for y’all but then the second time he jinxed the crap out it for just about everybody. I thought I saw him during y’alls December storm but like oburg said, I haven’t seen his name since. I’d wait till the last possible second to start a thread if it was me but I’m superstitious! Yep, we have seen so many of these 7 day threats go up in smoke. I agree... wait until we can "see the whites of their eyes" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 9 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: Yep, we have seen so many of these 7 day threats go up in smoke. I agree... wait until we can "see the whites of their eyes" CMC is onboard! Game on 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 So the NAM has had some light freezing rain on the morning of the 23rd, which of course would be a nightmare with the temps over the next few days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 At church, so someone is going to have to take my spot in the pbp chair Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 6 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: At church, so someone is going to have to take my spot in the pbp chair We’ve lost the icon, game over, say a prayer! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RT1980 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Live by it and die by it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 11 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: We’ve lost the icon, game over, say a prayer! 12z ICON has a healthy wave diving way south into the gulf at the end of the run Sun night. Hard to say how much it would turn the corner and pump precip inland as the wave is a bit positive tilt, but I'll take that look for sure at this juncture. 00z CMC was amped and on the warm side. The new 12z run is chilly, but weak and off the coast with the low 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 12z GFS is a clipper with light mtn snows on Sat/Sat night...night and day difference with the wave handling compared to the ICON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 9 minutes ago, griteater said: 12z GFS is a clipper with light mtn snows on Sat/Sat night...night and day difference with the wave handling compared to the ICON Night and day difference compared to its own 06z run. Ridiculous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 I dont think we see anything until the second arctic front passes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 1 minute ago, WarmNose said: Night and day difference compared to its own 06z run. Ridiculous New 12z FV3 is close to the ICON look. It has a nice backside wave that dives down into the conus trough into New Mexico, then along the gulf coast with sfc low from NE gulf to off the SE coast. It doesn't quite turn the corner and pump good precip inland 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 All about the ridge out west if it can build tall enough to cause our shortwave to dig and bomb ne gom se coast. See if ukie has this at h5 today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 3 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: All about the ridge out west if it can build tall enough to cause our shortwave to dig and bomb ne gom se coast. See if ukie has this at h5 today. 12z UKMet is digging the wave nicely down into the Rio Grande of West Texas at 144...some decent looks with the FV3/ICON/UKMet 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 6 minutes ago, griteater said: UKMet is digging the wave nicely down into the Rio Grande of West Texas at 144...some decent looks with the FV3/ICON/UKMet Agree, we got a good shot if we can get cyclogensis going in the ne gom and get the trough to neg tilt. Gonna need it to bomb out down there in the sweet spot. If it doesnt phase or phases to late well miss out here in western piedmont. Be an interesting week tracking. Strong consensus for a phaser, with the exception of the old gfs op , screwing up the pac ridge from run to run and being all over the place. Gefs and eps need to continue to trend in our direction today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Im actually sold we are gonna get a sustained negative nao from last few days jan into atleast first half February. After years of whining for one to show up in prime climo, i cant beleive this is gonna most likely come to pass. What will we use for an excuse now lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Just now, NCSNOW said: Im actually sold we are gonna get a sustained negative nao from last few days jan into atkeast first half February. After years of whining for one to show up on prime climo, i cant beleive this is gonna most likely come to pass. What will we use for an excuse now lol. "Too much suppression"... I can hear it now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 4 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Agree, we got a good shot if we can get cyclogensis going in the ne gom and get the trough to neg tilt. Gonna need it to bomb out down there in the sweet spot. If it doesnt phase or phases to late well miss out here in western piedmont. Be an interesting week tracking. Strong consensus for a phaser, with the exception of the old gfs op , screwing up the pac ridge from run to run and being all over the place. Gefs and eps need to continue to trend in our direction today. Yes, for our parts, this is one where we will need some good phasing to pull it negative. This is Jan '96 style with a wave diving south from MT all the way to the GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Also looks like Lookout eye for wed morning mischief, freezing drizzle, light zr has some legs on the models now. Good catch yesterday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 The main threat I am seeing on the GEFS is a week from late Monday/Tuesday, not that much hope for more than a dusting with the Saturday system IMO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 1 minute ago, NCSNOW said: Im actually sold we are gonna get a sustained negative nao from last few days jan into atleast first half February. After years of whining for one to show up in prime climo, i cant beleive this is gonna most likely come to pass. What will we use for an excuse now lol. Check out MA forum--PAC jet issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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