Orangeburgwx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Midnight GFS out to 192, two things to note: 1) 24th is still in play 2) Temps crash! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, CaryWx said: That looks odd though to me Josh Looks like there could be bigger surprises in future runs, with that much energy flying around 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, JoshM said: Looks like there could be bigger surprises in future runs, with that much energy flying around I like where the CMC is headed next Sunday. Matches the EPS threat of the 27th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Wtf is this s**t 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 11 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said: Wtf is this s**t TOSS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, Orangeburgwx said: TOSS Not even sure that is meterologically possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Wtf is this s**tLinking up of the +PNA and -NAO?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, tramadoc said: Linking up of the +PNA and -NAO? . I have no clue what I'm looking at! Super -NAO that pops a -PNA and torches the east. If that happens it'll be a first and we should definitely quit! Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, Waiting on snow said: I have no clue what I'm looking at! Super -NAO that pops a -PNA and torches the east. If that happens it'll be a first and we should definitely quit! Lol That is exactly what it looks like... But isnt the AO supposed to bottom out soon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 8 minutes ago, tramadoc said: Linking up of the +PNA and -NAO? . PNA is negative in that pic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, Orangeburgwx said: That is exactly what it looks like... But isnt the AO supposed to bottom out soon? 1 minute ago, Orangeburgwx said: That is exactly what it looks like... But isnt the AO supposed to bottom out soon? Yes. It gets even more comical at 384. Surely it'll do a 180 in 6 hrs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, Waiting on snow said: Yes. It gets even more comical at 384. Surely it'll do a 180 in 6 hrs! What in the actual buck... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Imagine that, models warmed significantly overnight! We can’t even get a cold front right! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 11 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Imagine that, models warmed significantly overnight! We can’t even get a cold front right! warm and rain,same old same old, but thinking things will change to the cold and snowy side end of next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 5 minutes ago, Tacoma said: warm and rain,same old same old, but thinking things will change to the cold and snowy side end of next week. If you believe the 6z GFS, no real cold through the 28th, then there’s a rain system up into Indiana on the 29th! Pattern change ????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 44 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: If you believe the 6z GFS, no real cold through the 28th, then there’s a rain system up into Indiana on the 29th! Pattern change ????? Not really, it's a clipper really. But even posting individual panels 10 days out for a single operational run seems silly. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 11 minutes ago, msuwx said: Not really, it's a clipper really. But even posting individual panels 10 days out for a single operational run seems silly. Unfortunately though it looks like both the GEFS and the GEPS both break down this so far phantom epic pattern by Feb now. Hard to believe we may screw it up but I guess it is the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Pattern is ripe!! If we don’t score between Jan 25 - Feb 5, we suck! Whats even awesomer, the cold is always pushed back a few days and or backs off of the cold severity, but I guarantee the pattern breakdown to warm, will be right on time or early, and just as warm as models are showing! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gearhead302 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 23 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Pattern is ripe!! If we don’t score between Jan 25 - Feb 5, we suck! Whats even awesomer, the cold is always pushed back a few days and or backs off of the cold severity, but I guarantee the pattern breakdown to warm, will be right on time or early, and just as warm as models are showing! Just bring on the torch..... I'd rather be able to enjoy the outdoors than constantly swing and miss down here in the SC rainforest. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 It's only meterologically possible if it shows rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 @Bob Chill, paging Bob Chill, you have been invited to play a round of golf in February down in the Triad. Please delete your aforementioned historic cold posts, grab those clubs and head on down. I hear there may also be some great mullet fishing as well. Lol!! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, kvegas-wx said: @Bob Chill, paging Bob Chill, you have been invited to play a round of golf in February down in the Triad. Please delete your aforementioned historic cold posts, grab those clubs and head on down. I hear there may also be some great mullet fishing as well. Lol!! Everything looked so great yesterday! Biblical cold on both models and only 10 days out!? How dare they change! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, mackerel_sky said: Everything looked so great yesterday! Biblical cold on both models and only 10 days out!? How dare they change! Yeah, I'm just yanking Bob's chain, but I wonder if this is a case of extremes to the point that the models simply go wonky not knowing how to handle it? I've never seen anything like those runs yesterday in my 15 years of hobbying. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 15 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: Yeah, I'm just yanking Bob's chain, but I wonder if this is a case of extremes to the point that the models simply go wonky not knowing how to handle it? I've never seen anything like those runs yesterday in my 15 years of hobbying. Yeah, they were amazing. I remember when we were chasing a pattern change around Christmas 17, models were swinging wildly from run to run, and finally got the extreme cold the first weeks of January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 20 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: Yeah, I'm just yanking Bob's chain, but I wonder if this is a case of extremes to the point that the models simply go wonky not knowing how to handle it? I've never seen anything like those runs yesterday in my 15 years of hobbying. I'm glad they're moderating. Sure it would be nice to set cold records in a time where that is so rare. But it would never snow with that kind of cold push. And in the end snow is all I care about. But that's just me. Others may enjoy the dry cold. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 As others have stated, we're not going to get a good model read on the sensible weather past 7 days. Indices are good for something to occur for the next two weeks. That's all we have at this point. I wouldn't be surprised to see another huge storm at 12z for the day 9/10(or 11...) period just to have it disappear at 18z (or vise versa). PNA - Stays positive until the LR, then it goes neutral; which others have stated could signify a whole continental trough. NAO - Looks to average negative AO - Looks to go and stay strongly negative https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 9 minutes ago, FallsLake said: As others have stated, we're not going to get a good model read on the sensible weather past 7 days. Indices are good for something to occur for the next two weeks. That's all we have at this point. I wouldn't be surprised to see another huge storm at 12z for the day 9/10(or 11...) period just to have it disappear at 18z (or vise versa). PNA - Stays positive until the LR, then it goes neutral; which others have stated could signify a whole continental trough. NAO - Looks to average negative AO - Looks to go and stay strongly negative https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml Yeah the long range ensembles look to lose the PNA. The blocking up top is there but I don't see how a conus wide trough is good for us at all. I could be wrong but seems like the storms would amplify due to the block and cut without a strong trough centered on the east coast. I sure hope we squeeze something in from the 26th through the 31st. Because if the models are correct and we lose the west coast ridge and waste the first week of Feb trying to rebuild it, then we're on borrowed time after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 As I have said before, it does not look promising at all for a SE winter storm with the upcoming pattern. It will either be clipper city or a conus wide trough and cutters. Historic winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 8 minutes ago, wncsnow said: As I have said before, it does not look promising at all for a SE winter storm with the upcoming pattern. It will either be clipper city or a conus wide trough and cutters. Historic winter! I have to buy one of those crystal balls you guys seemingly own. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 10 minutes ago, wncsnow said: As I have said before, it does not look promising at all for a SE winter storm with the upcoming pattern. It will either be clipper city or a conus wide trough and cutters. Historic winter! Already has been a pretty good winter here and it’s mid Jan. 15+ inches of snow and 3 ice storms. More than MA or NE for that matter. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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