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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019


Upstate Tiger
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2 hours ago, CaryWx said:

Getting that feeling now we will see something between the 25th and 31st but too far out still for details, exact locations, and amounts

I agree with this 

2 hours ago, CADEffect said:

What is giving you that feeling?

Look at the indexes, plus the fact the GFS has been sniffing at it for the last few days. The 12z Euro backed it up, and the ensembles look pretty damn good all things considering. All we can do is watch and wait, for it is just the matter of timing the low-high tandem just right.

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28 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

Doesn’t seem to be a whole lot of support for the solution the GFS has had for that time period the last two runs. Color me skeptical. 

You mean we don’t get our biggest snows with frontal passages? Just kidding, but this next two week stretch doesn’t look any better that the previous 2 weeks and we lost the single digit highs on the models! :(

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So I can contribute something useful, I do like the look of this on the Euro. Low over S Texas with sprawling high pressure up top. But where's the long advertised NAO? Hopefully that's not warning shots that it won't materialize. Shocker if it doesn't I know. But we've scored without it for the better part of a decade so who cares?

Screenshot_20190117-182101_Chrome.jpg

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2 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said:

So I can contribute something useful, I do like the look of this on the Euro. Low over S Texas with sprawling high pressure up top. But where's the long advertised NAO? Hopefully that's not warning shots that it won't materialize. Shocker if it doesn't I know. But we've scored without it for the better part of a decade so who cares?

Screenshot_20190117-182101_Chrome.jpg

The ensemble has it.

ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_11.png

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6 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said:

So I can contribute something useful, I do like the look of this on the Euro. Low over S Texas with sprawling high pressure up top. But where's the long advertised NAO? Hopefully that's not warning shots that it won't materialize. Shocker if it doesn't I know. But we've scored without it for the better part of a decade so who cares?

Screenshot_20190117-182101_Chrome.jpg

Probably just a one run thing. Euro hadn’t done that before that and nothing on either ensembles have backed away from the -NAO. 

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#8. 8 Days in a row Greensboro has been below normal. Wasnt for the next 40-48 hours no telling how long this record would stretch, easilly 20+ days. 
Greensboro is also 150%+ above annual climo snowfall. Minus the 2 week torch from last week December and first 9 days of January. This truly has the potential to go down as a stellar top 10 winter if we can score a couple more marginal events.Had a -4 BN November and the potential to cash in a stellar last 6 weeks of winter. Of course there are no gurantees and it could go to the crapper next 6 weeks. But signals are strong things should unfold in a favorable way.

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9 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Notice how quiet it is in here? Yea there is still nothing that interesting on the horizon the next 10 days. Also after that there are signs of the cold relaxing and the trough being centered too far to the NE. 

You clearly know better than the professionals talking about this pattern.

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23 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

You clearly know better than the professionals talking about this pattern.

Never said that. The pattern could reload but there will be plenty of relaxes IMO. You should know SE winters better. We have heard for months how amazing this winter will be. If not for a freak early December storm it would be an F. 

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