DownS.EasternVa Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Models have been trending southward in regards of wintry precip on Sunday. 6z Fvs now drops 3-5in of frozen precip across northern NC into S. & Se Va. Could be a decent event for those area's. Its still time to get it a lil more south, considering there are strong H pressures over top and behind the Arctic front. Wouldn't be surprised if models show more wintry precip as the front gets closer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 RDU has a max of 27 on the 0z euro for next monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Temperatures on latest model runs have backed off extremes... More marginal and close to freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 4 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: Temperatures on latest model runs have backed off extremes... More marginal and close to freezing. The GFS has been not as cold as the Euro from the beginning. The euro is exactly as cold as it’s been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 hour ago, DownS.EasternVa said: Models have been trending southward in regards of wintry precip on Sunday. 6z Fvs now drops 3-5in of frozen precip across northern NC into S. & Se Va. Could be a decent event for those area's. Its still time to get it a lil more south, considering there are strong H pressures over top and behind the Arctic front. Wouldn't be surprised if models show more wintry precip as the front gets closer. Some mets have discussed this in days past, but most have backed off. 6Z FV3 is really the only model showing anything (halfway) significant. Maybe something starts to show on more models in coming days but right now I wouldn't count on it. **this is where our friends on the other side of the mountains can actually score a small event. Our mountains are great for CAD but (in this case) usually slow the cold air down too much to catch moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 My concern with the FV3 is it’s really been struggling since the shutdown. I think @nrgjeffbrought that up yesterday. It’s hard for me to buy anything it’s selling. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Looking to the skies Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 The 25th 05 26th.....look at the teleconnections. The EPS and GEFS agree on this. Every one of these goes into the most favorable position they could, all synchronized perfectly. -AO -NAO +PNA -EPO 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, Looking to the skies said: The 25th 05 26th.....look at the teleconnections. The EPS and GEFS agree on this. Every one of these goes into the most favorable position they could, all synchronized perfectly. -AO -NAO +PNA -EPO If I remember some of the discussion on the above indices, a -PNA is not bad if we have the AO, NAO and specifically the EPO on our side (all negative). Usually when I see a -PNA I think we're done for... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 4 minutes ago, FallsLake said: If I remember some of the discussion on the above indices, a -PNA is not bad if we have the AO, NAO and specifically the EPO on our side (all negative). Usually when I see a -PNA I think we're done for... Yeah, I think the PNA goes a bit negative/neutral because essentially there's no ridge on the west coast. I could be wrong through. There's basically a full conus trough as all the ridging is up top. I think in that instance it's a good thing. The vortex is displaced into SE Canada and suppresses the flow so everything's going to come south, with a good feed of cold. All the other indices therefore offset the lack of a west coast ridge. Really like what the ensembles are selling for very end of January to start February. Like Matt said, it looks good. I don't know if it's ever been better? And it could last well into March potentially. Just have to wait another week or so and we should start seeing the models light up in the medium to long range I bet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Congratulations to Eric Webb @webberweather for making The Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/01/15/polar-vortex-has-fractured-eastern-us-faces-punishing-stretch-winter-weather-just-underway/?noredirect=on. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 hour ago, FallsLake said: If I remember some of the discussion on the above indices, a -PNA is not bad if we have the AO, NAO and specifically the EPO on our side (all negative). Usually when I see a -PNA I think we're done for... 1 hour ago, SnowNiner said: Yeah, I think the PNA goes a bit negative/neutral because essentially there's no ridge on the west coast. I could be wrong through. There's basically a full conus trough as all the ridging is up top. I think in that instance it's a good thing. The vortex is displaced into SE Canada and suppresses the flow so everything's going to come south, with a good feed of cold. All the other indices therefore offset the lack of a west coast ridge. Really like what the ensembles are selling for very end of January to start February. Like Matt said, it looks good. I don't know if it's ever been better? And it could last well into March potentially. Just have to wait another week or so and we should start seeing the models light up in the medium to long range I bet. You do NOT want energy to start getting shunted out into the SW and off the west coast, causing a trough out there unless you have a big time west -NAO pressing the vortex south. You don't want it split either, having a piece over western Canada and one over eastern Canada with a weakness in the middle for storms to work into. This is not a good look at all. Fortunately, it's the 0z 384 Op GFS. So it's unlikely to evolve this way. The 6z looks like this. Even worse: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 hour ago, tramadoc said: Congratulations to Eric Webb @webberweather for making The Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/01/15/polar-vortex-has-fractured-eastern-us-faces-punishing-stretch-winter-weather-just-underway/?noredirect=on . Congrats to him! I follow him on Twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CADEffect Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 5 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: You do NOT want energy to start getting shunted out into the SW and off the west coast, causing a trough out there unless you have a big time west -NAO pressing the vortex south. You don't want it split either, having a piece over western Canada and one over eastern Canada with a weakness in the middle for storms to work into. This is not a good look at all. Fortunately, it's the 0z 384 Op GFS. So it's unlikely to evolve this way. The 6z looks like this. Even worse: At least its a good look for the other boards. Like you said it wont materialize due to the fact its 384hrs. Side note: Where did you guys read that the shutdown was impacting the American weather models? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 7 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: You do NOT want energy to start getting shunted out into the SW and off the west coast, causing a trough out there unless you have a big time west -NAO pressing the vortex south. You don't want it split either, having a piece over western Canada and one over eastern Canada with a weakness in the middle for storms to work into. This is not a good look at all. Fortunately, it's the 0z 384 Op GFS. So it's unlikely to evolve this way. The 6z looks like this. Even worse: You can see the storm track NW of our location (story of the past few weeks). Hopefully with this pattern change the models are having difficulties; especially the American models because of all the talk of low maintenance (..budget impasse). Just looking out 10 days, the euro does look good. Maybe it's the model that will lead all the others: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, FallsLake said: You can see the storm track NW of our location (story of the past few weeks). Hopefully with this pattern change the models are having difficulties; especially the American models because of all the talk of low maintenance (..budget impasse). Just looking out 10 days, the euro does look good. Maybe it's the model that will lead all the others: Brad Panovich has a good video this morning on the cold coming. Brad Panovich Twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 39 minutes ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said: Brad Panovich has a good video this morning on the cold coming. Brad Panovich Twitter That was a good video. Everybody that wants to jump should see this first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 2 hours ago, Looking to the skies said: The 25th 05 26th.....look at the teleconnections. The EPS and GEFS agree on this. Every one of these goes into the most favorable position they could, all synchronized perfectly. -AO -NAO +PNA -EPO Except the MJO goes into warm phases! That’s what’s driven the dumpster fire of a winter and doesn’t look to change anytime soon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 9 minutes ago, FallsLake said: That was a good video. Everybody that wants to jump should see this first. Because he put out that video, I want to jump!! He never hypes cold or snow!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CADEffect Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 The more our American models run the more I'm convinced something is a foot. 384hr the GFS has the 540line all the way in Baja California. Granted I know its 384 but you just don't see that. Some of the data also doesn't make sense. A warm up around the late on the 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Congrats to him! I follow him on TwitterMe too.Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 37 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Except the MJO goes into warm phases! That’s what’s driven the dumpster fire of a winter and doesn’t look to change anytime soon! Since Jan 10 we've been in a favorable MJO and Greensboro has had 6 straight days below normal. All in the -4 to-6 range. Today may make it 7. Anyway we stay within 2 to 3 of AN or BN till Monday and Tuesday which will end up BN. So seeing how we torched Jan 1-10 and how Jan 11-23 will easily end up BN. It matches the MJO cold and warm phases and gives support to what you are stating. Lets see what happens Jan 23-Feb 1. No doubt MJO forecasted to go back in the warm phase. Just pray its not stuck for weeks like it was Mid December to Jan 10. Make no mistake I'm on board with a fantastic pattern continuing from Jan 25- Early March. I say continuing because the pattern changed Jan 11, It just gets better after Jan25th. Bought into weeklies lock , stock n barrel for various reasons not just because weeklies say so. Until I see evidence from the euro camp I've been head faked I refuse to let the GFS change my mind. Especially when the GEFS says is off its rocker. I will be the 1st to call myself out if indeed this winds up going down in flames post Jan 25. No need to wait till FEB 15th etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 2 hours ago, Cold Rain said: You do NOT want energy to start getting shunted out into the SW and off the west coast, causing a trough out there unless you have a big time west -NAO pressing the vortex south. You don't want it split either, having a piece over western Canada and one over eastern Canada with a weakness in the middle for storms to work into. This is not a good look at all. Fortunately, it's the 0z 384 Op GFS. So it's unlikely to evolve this way. The 6z looks like this. Even worse: Thanks CR, yeah you see the storm track better with the heights there. Yeah I guess we don't want lower heights to the west at all, still makes it hard to get everything south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Euro keeps trending south every run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 at 96/ 12z : May help with some back side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Cold coming down post storm: watch the clipper as well. Throwing stuff against the wall hunting anything to stick. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Cant imagine NE NC/Tidewater and obviously mtns not getting couple hours changeover post front passage. We'll see 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Cold coming down post storm: watch the clipper as well. Throwing stuff against the wall hunting anything to stick. That’s what I don’t understand about talk that MJO going warm in long range. We can’t even get a storm settled less than 4 days out but we know that MJO is gong to warm phase because One model says so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 18 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Cold coming down post storm: watch the clipper as well. Throwing stuff against the wall hunting anything to stick. Clipper is a no go with a 1035 parked off the Carolina coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 We don't know what's going to happen: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Need to get closer to the -nao initiation date. If it slides or stays in the +10 day range I'll begin to have my doubts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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