beanskip Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 How much for Ocala? 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 UKMET does have a little accumulating snow around Florence and Lumberton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 3 hours ago, Queencitywx said: fv3 has been warmer and warmer with this one......now has just a run of the mill cold. Only upper 20s here to low to mid 20s in nc. 5 minutes ago, beanskip said: How much for Ocala? Probably will get more than ga/sc in the end. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 We’re all going to die from frostbite looking at the Lunar eclipse Sunday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC2Winston Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Cold and dry sucks. That is all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted January 15, 2019 Author Share Posted January 15, 2019 Well at least this weekend's storm looks to lay down some pretty good snow in the Midwest, on top of some areas that just got snow earlier this week. This should lay down the tracks for the cold air to come south without a lot of moderation. I know what the ops are showing but I am still not a 100% convinced the system late next week goes as far north as modeled. A lot of moving parts in play after this weekend make it hard to have faith in any specifics beyond 5 days. We do know, however, that there will plenty of cold air, s/w's entering the west and more favorable indices. I wouldn't jump off the cliff just yet..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernskimmer Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, Upstate Tiger said: Well at least this weekend's storm looks to lay down some pretty good snow in the Midwest, on top of some areas that just got snow earlier this week. This should lay down the tracks for the cold air to come south without a lot of moderation. I know what the ops are showing but I am still not a 100% convinced the system late next week goes as far north as modeled. A lot of moving parts in play after this weekend make it hard to have faith in any specifics beyond 5 days. We do know, however, that there will plenty of cold air, s/w's entering the west and more favorable indices. I wouldn't jump off the cliff just yet..... And if you do decide to jump, there is a thread devoted to that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Where have all the clippers gone to this winter? Be nice to see one when we are at max suppresion. Those are the only ones we can get to halfway work east of the apps. The ones that go down into Albabma, Georgia underneath the NC 6,000 ft peaks, then swing back up off the coast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Where have all the clippers gone to this winter? Be nice to see one when we are at max suppresion. Those are the only ones we can get to halfway work east of the apps. The ones that go down into Albabma, Georgia underneath the NC 6,000 ft peaks, then swing back up off the coast. I think they're coming. We just haven't had deep enough troughs to get them going yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 13 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Where have all the clippers gone to this winter? Be nice to see one when we are at max suppresion. Those are the only ones we can get to halfway work east of the apps. The ones that go down into Albabma, Georgia underneath the NC 6,000 ft peaks, then swing back up off the coast. Yesterday's 12z FV3 was about as good as it gets from about 270 on, in the way it evolved the pattern. Today's guidance, virtually across the board, is to back the western ridge out west and sneak energy into the SW. If that turns out to be accurate, and I'm not saying that it is, that puts the storm track west of us and puts us back into a holding pattern, waiting yet another few days to get a better trough/ridge alignment and/or blocking. All of that is allegedly coming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Ukie could bode well for NE NC and SE VA with this track Sunday/Backside as Cold air flies in. I hope so. I just don’t see it. Looks like typical cold chasing moisture unless the LP slows down some. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Realistically what are going to have to have happen to stop these troughs from bottoming our over Texas and actually start setting up over the Eastern US? Outside of scoring perfect timing (see yesterday’s 18z GFS) I just don’t see how we can possibly get anything noteworthy from this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 All guidance shows heavy rain this weekend and middle of next week. No sustained cold. Give me all the indices you want, the proof is in the pudding. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 14 minutes ago, wncsnow said: All guidance shows heavy rain this weekend and middle of next week. No sustained cold. Give me all the indices you want, the proof is in the pudding. There's a significant cold shot for 36 hours from Sunday Evening until Tuesday. It goes normal, at most, for the next 3-4 days before the hammer drops. The ensembles look as good as they have in years. There's not even really heavy rain totals, 1.5" through 10 days on the euro. I dont understand the cliff diving. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 3 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: There's a significant cold shot for 36 hours from Sunday Evening until Tuesday. It goes normal, at most, for the next 3-4 days before the hammer drops. The ensembles look as good as they have in years. There's not even really heavy rain totals, 1.5" through 10 days on the euro. I dont understand the cliff diving. The "cliff diving" I think up and down most of the seaboard is the guidance today kind of flipped a bit for next week based on what we were seeing yesterday. Let's give it a another 24-36hrs and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, CaryWx said: The "cliff diving" I think up and down most of the seaboard is the guidance today kind of flipped a bit for next week based on what we were seeing yesterday. Let's give it a another 24-36hrs and see. The thing is, things really havent changed at all except operational models in fantasy land. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 I’m not really cliff diving yet because at this point I’ve yet to even climb up. Outside of a fluke run at 18z yesterday there hasn’t been anything close to a credible threat for the SE US. Just rather consistent troughing over the Midwest, the west Atlantic ridge overlapping the East coast, and storms constantly cutting way inland. Now we may get lucky and score perfect timing, get a wave to hold back, and a high pressure move across in tandem to keep it suppressed. But that will be the exception, not the rule until the pattern changes a bit hopefully by February. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 18 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: The thing is, things really havent changed at all except operational models in fantasy land. Yep. Sunday was a long shot at best. Mid next week another one. But the money period truly begins in 9 days now and getting closer. Theres no more kicking can past January 24-25. After that one (storm ) rides by Its hammer time day after day. All we have to do is find moisture and presto. We no longer fight WAR or SER after middle of next week and the block is set up top. I miss snow late Jan into Feb, it will be because Im to far north. The even better news is this could last through late Feb/Early March. So good times are coming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 hour ago, wncsnow said: All guidance shows heavy rain this weekend and middle of next week. No sustained cold. Give me all the indices you want, the proof is in the pudding. All of the indices are for 8-10 days AT A MINIMUM, not for this weekend or even next week. I think a month from now, most people will be singing a different tune! 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 hour ago, Queencitywx said: The thing is, things really havent changed at all except operational models in fantasy land. Give it time. We went from Jan 15th to Jan 20th to now Jan 25th. By the weekend we'll be punting until Jan 31st. Even if it does come we can't seem to get more than a couple days of below average at a time. Can't punt but a few more times after that and it's all over but the crying. Always 10+ days away. I believe nothing about the phantom NAO modeled. Someone posted 18 winter months straight of positive NAO. We've had plenty of fake outs this year too already. But we can always hope. Has to change someday. Sorry for the rant. I hope this is different. But I've fell for it too many times. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 50 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said: Give it time. We went from Jan 15th to Jan 20th to now Jan 25th. By the weekend we'll be punting until Jan 31st. Even if it does come we can't seem to get more than a couple days of below average at a time. Can't punt but a few more times after that and it's all over but the crying. Always 10+ days away. I believe nothing about the phantom NAO modeled. Someone posted 18 winter months straight of positive NAO. We've had plenty of fake outs this year too already. But we can always hope. Has to change someday. Sorry for the rant. I hope this is different. But I've fell for it too many times. I believe that is what most folks think. "We have been fooled too many times". The pattern in the long range has looked wonderful, only to be muted as we approach verification time. It has to do with the strength of the highs dropping down being modeled too strong in the long range. I believe we will get cold, but I am a little skeptical about the big cold blasts that are being modeled at this range. I see great potential, and I will be very relieved in the next few days if it doesn't get pushed back yet again. The new FV3 has a cold bias in the long range. We have already seen that several times. Now that we know that, it will help us see more clearly. One thing I like is the fact that the Euro has a similar cold solution and the GFS ensembles have stood their ground, despite the operational runs looking like a 3 year old's coloring book. Now let's get this show started. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Talk about an arctic front..... temps pushing 50 in Charlotte while Boone is 18 degrees. However, that is 288 hours away. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 The storm system this weekend opens the door for the new pattern. System this weekend and the 24th-ish are longer shots as the pattern change takes place. But after that.... The ensembles look about as good as possible. And it’s not getting further away. It’s getting closer, right on schedule. There’s no punting. 17 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 19 minutes ago, msuwx said: The storm system this weekend opens the door for the new pattern. System this weekend and the 24th-ish are longer shots as the pattern change takes place. But after that.... The ensembles look about as good as possible. And it’s not getting further away. It’s getting closer, right on schedule. There’s no punting. Thanks Matt for posting. I have always followed your forecasts and enjoyed your internet videos. Hopefully there are some good times ahead. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 The MJO has been and may still be the thorn in our side as it's now projected to go back into warm phases. Hopefully HL blocking will kick in and Trump or mitigate it's effects. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 hour ago, msuwx said: The storm system this weekend opens the door for the new pattern. System this weekend and the 24th-ish are longer shots as the pattern change takes place. But after that.... The ensembles look about as good as possible. And it’s not getting further away. It’s getting closer, right on schedule. There’s no punting. Hopefully. Next 10 days will be frustrating for the "give me snow or give me 60s" crew. Gonna warm up and rain, then get cold. Then warm up and rain, then get cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 hour ago, cbmclean said: Hopefully. Next 10 days will be frustrating for the "give me snow or give me 60s" crew. Gonna warm up and rain, then get cold. Then warm up and rain, then get cold. Yep. I'm in that crew. That is worse than being in an endless torch pattern. I'll be spending a lot of time in the sanitarium I'm sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 17 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said: Yep. I'm in that crew. That is worse than being in an endless torch pattern. I'll be spending a lot of time in the sanitarium I'm sure. I'm a little better off for this pattern, since I am one of those who can enjoy plain cold. Of course I would rather my cold come with snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 We just had the wettest year on record for many locations on the east coast including millions of dollars in damage to my city and workplace so no I am not excited about widespread 2 to 4 inch rain amounts the next 7 to 8 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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