wncsnow Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 The operational models look meh at best in the long range. It sets the trough up too far west giving us mostly SE flow and rain while storms cut through the Ohio valley then somewhat colder behind them but nothing remarkable.. Some pattern change if it comes to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 7 minutes ago, wncsnow said: The operational models look meh at best in the long range. It sets the trough up too far west giving us mostly SE flow and rain while storms cut through the Ohio valley then somewhat colder behind them but nothing remarkable.. Some pattern change if it comes to fruition. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Yeah not really any need to model watch the operational runs at this point, it's not healthy. Ensembles look good long range, so hopefully they stay that way. Central US pattern change is happening this weekend. Ours seems about a week later. Strangely, the euro weeklies look just about right on time so far. Just have to wait until the end of the month for the SE. Just hurts losing most of January, and waiting sucks. But it could be worth it if the weeklies come to fruition. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 58 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: Yeah not really any need to model watch the operational runs at this point, it's not healthy. Ensembles look good long range, so hopefully they stay that way. Central US pattern change is happening this weekend. Ours seems about a week later. Strangely, the euro weeklies look just about right on time so far. Just have to wait until the end of the month for the SE. Just hurts losing most of January, and waiting sucks. But it could be worth it if the weeklies come to fruition. Pattern change 2 weeks away again. Wow that's a shocker! Wouldn't have seen that coming! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 That's about as ugly as it gets. If the MJO was the primary driver behind the dumpster fire for the past month this isn't good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Looking at the teleconnections, there is a brief spike in +NAO and +AO around 1/23 but they quickly go back negative. The PNA is about neutral. I can definitely deal with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Looking to the skies Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 I have a question for you who are watching the operational models instead of looking at the overall picture. Why are you putting faith in something that changes from run to run-- DAILY, not every other day or so, but sometimes 2-3 times daily? It is plain to see , even for just a geek like me without the credentials that Sunday starts the ball rolling with the cold train that has been advertised. After that with the snow that is going to be put down, the cold just gets deeper and deeper. The models are not picking that up, and common sense says otherwise and the big picture does too.... Also we have History and similar years and patterns to go by for us to understand that a Modili winter means moisture and cold for the East and S East.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 12 minutes ago, Looking to the skies said: I have a question for you who are watching the operational models instead of looking at the overall picture. Why are you putting faith in something that changes from run to run-- DAILY, not every other day or so, but sometimes 2-3 times daily? It is plain to see , even for just a geek like me without the credentials that Sunday starts the ball rolling with the cold train that has been advertised. After that with the snow that is going to be put down, the cold just gets deeper and deeper. The models are not picking that up, and common sense says otherwise and the big picture does too.... Also we have History and similar years and patterns to go by for us to understand that a Modili winter means moisture and cold for the East and S East.... I agree with what you say about op models. I can't speak for anyone but me, but this is the south. I always look for the fly in the ointment and it's usually there. When it comes to winterstorms I usually ride the warmest least snowy model because it's usually right. As far as pattern changes I'll believe it when it actually happens. Especially the phantom NAO that always shows up never to materialize. I'm hoping the MJO is not the fly in the ointment now. When it was last in the warm phases and forecast to hit 7 and 8 it took awhile for the ensembles to show it. They had an endless torch and gradually went to colder. Now it's the opposite and I'm hoping the ensembles don't start backing away on any cold pattern once they recognize the MJO in the warm phases. But as I said, that's just me. I'm not a pro by any means. I just look for what can go wrong because it usually does down here. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 41 minutes ago, Looking to the skies said: I have a question for you who are watching the operational models instead of looking at the overall picture. Why are you putting faith in something that changes from run to run-- DAILY, not every other day or so, but sometimes 2-3 times daily? It is plain to see , even for just a geek like me without the credentials that Sunday starts the ball rolling with the cold train that has been advertised. After that with the snow that is going to be put down, the cold just gets deeper and deeper. The models are not picking that up, and common sense says otherwise and the big picture does too.... Also we have History and similar years and patterns to go by for us to understand that a Modili winter means moisture and cold for the East and S East.... Big picture definitely shows a change is underway. It's not a winter storm pattern for most yet, but that doesn't mean a perfectly-timed event can't happen. Anyway, longer range tools continue to suggest we're moving in the right direction. But at some point, the operationals will lock in on that. When a good winter storm pattern actually gets close enough to worry about, the operational models will pick it up. Right now, they're bouncing around with where they want the trough to set up and where the PV is placed. So far, they have not locked in on a good winter pattern. But at least the change is underway, and we look to be stepping down colder. The good thing is, cold is nearby now, but we're going to have to wait and see if a suppressed flow actually sets up and whether or not we can get the right configuration up north to allow high pressure to set up in a good location. In the meantime, we can drool over the long range ensembles and hope they're onto something. Although they often show better depictions than the operational models in the LR, due to smoothing, they should be a bit more accurate this time, given the myriad well-reasoned predictions of a back-loaded winter. But at some point, when we're really on the doorstep of a good winter storm pattern, the operationals will pick it up and hold it. We're still probably 10 days away from that at least. That's probably what the anxiety is about. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
33rd Street Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Some backside snow this run for the Triangle and Triad this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Looking to the skies Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Really not expecting anything here in NW Georgia from this weekend's system. I do believe the low will be right over us here and any snow will be a flurry or two with the arrival of the artic cold. But i am very excited for the time period after that. No matter where or how, if the cold is entrenched, then possibilities or there. So it is just a matter of time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 6 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: Some backside snow this run for the Triangle and Triad this run. Yeah, at least it's something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Looks like a good run incoming at 240 Hr on 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: Looks like a good run incoming at 240 Hr on 12z GFS The pattern is good but the run sucks. This is the opposite of what we're use to; where we normally need perfectly timed events to get snow. At hour 264 it's a perfectly timed event to turn us all to rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 4 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Looks like a good run incoming at 240 Hr on 12z GFS Maybe not, ICE , Then Rain. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 i think Mother Nature is just messing with us. She says lets see how cold I can get it but keep the southeast rain. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 My guess is until we get closer (or through next weekend) the operational models will continue to bounce around. They do not yet have a good handle on the new 'colder' pattern that is supposed to emerge beginning sometime next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Heres 12z GFS at 144: ends up being to late and off coast before we can get the trough to tilt neutral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Heres 12z GFS at 144: ends up being to late and off coast before we can get the trough to tilt neutral. I’d much rather see that at this lead than a big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Heres the Canadian 12z @ 144. Getting closer to what we need to get some backside ( secondary LP) on the front coming through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: I’d much rather see that at this lead than a big storm. This might trend enough to help eastern NC more than western. we'll see, right now it just looks like a NE paste bomb, SE monsoon, followed by Frigid air. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: This might trend enough to help eastern NC more than western. we'll see, right now it just looks like a NE paste bomb, SE monsoon, followed by Frigid air. For this one, I'll be in the mountains up near blowing rock. Just hoping for some wrap around upslope snow. It's going to be a strong storm I think so I like my chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 This might trend enough to help eastern NC more than western. we'll see, right now it just looks like a NE paste bomb, SE monsoon, followed by Frigid air.Well, if my local forecast is indicative of what’s to come for Eastern N.C., I have a high of 33° next Monday, followed by 50’s by Wednesday. Some arctic blast. Lasts all of one day before moderating to temps that I’ve seen for the last week. Upper 40’s to low 50’s is not my idea of winter blast. Sorry.Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 I think the 24th-25th storm is our best bet in the immediate long range. 1040+ high over the NE, low on the gulf coast, arctic air behind, and at least some lingering cold from the initial cold burst. I think the storm is cutting too soon on the GFS with the high where it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 44 minutes ago, FallsLake said: The pattern is good but the run sucks. This is the opposite of what we're use to; where we normally need perfectly timed events to get snow. At hour 264 it's a perfectly timed event to turn us all to rain... Generally for us in eastern NC anyways it seems like the models never really pick up on the threat in a meaningful way until its 5-7 days out.....there is potential in the models after Jan 20th. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CADEffect Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: I think the 24th-25th storm is our best bet in the immediate long range. 1040+ high over the NE, low on the gulf coast, arctic air behind, and at least some lingering cold from the initial cold burst. I think the storm is cutting too soon on the GFS with the high where it is. Agreed the FV3 showed this storm on Friday as a major miller A on the run 12z January 11. Now the GFS is sniffing one out. I must say I do like the HP placement at this time period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Yep the 10 day euro and eps from 0Z are solid on SER. So thats why tramadoc you see the warmup by next wednesday. Lets all hope that trends away at 12z today. Otherwise we may be finding ourselves head faked again by this post 20th holy grail lock down pattern. Getting a bad feeling in my stomach SER is gonna throw a monkey wrench in things last of Jan into Feb. Clock starts ticking Friday. Have exactly 6 weeks till March1st and we all know what that means. Plus Friday kicks off sun angle season and all that other jibe that comes along with it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 FWIW: 1/25/19. 12z OP GFS vs 12z GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 5 minutes ago, CADEffect said: Agreed the FV3 showed this storm on Friday as a major miller A on the run 12z January 11. Now the GFS is sniffing one out. I must say I do like the HP placement at this time period Need Euro to get on board. Cause if the SER is there its gonna cut right up to our west. Notice you dont see that on 12z gfs or fv3. So hopefully its gone today on euro and eps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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