SnowNiner Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 On 1/13/2019 at 5:52 PM, Queencitywx said: This is going to be a good pattern for clipper snow in the south. Expand Please no. That seems to never work except to get some flurry action at best. Cutter pattern is worse than cold and dry! lol. I think we're just going to have to wait until the pole blocks up, the pv gets pushed SE and the flow suppresses. It may be a few more weeks....I hope. We really need the SSW to get down to the troposphere stat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 If we dodge this next two weeks without a snow event in the southeast, then somebody "just ain't living right" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 On 1/13/2019 at 6:09 PM, CAD_Wedge_NC said: If we dodge this next two weeks without a snow event in the southeast, then somebody "just ain't living right" Expand Yeah, it's going to happen, we just dont know when. I'm pretty confident in this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 So much for those monster runs for a winter storm next weekend... that faded away fast... theirs a storm but to warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 On 1/13/2019 at 6:47 PM, BornAgain13 said: So much for those monster runs for a winter storm next weekend... that faded away fast... theirs a storm but to warm. Expand Ops runs at range. You know how that goes. That being said, things aren't looking good for snow in the SE next weekend. There's a good chance for some serious cold, and there will be moisture, just not the right kind of blocking to get them to be in the same time at the same place. On the bright side, there is serious support for significant high latitude blocking the last week of January and into February. It would be nice if it was happening now though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Euro is a nice thump backside mtns no doubt next Sunday as polar air comes gangbusters on backside. We need the trough to go neutral quicker. To posotive leaning. If it would we could see those solutions like last night show up again. The ensembles still look good all next week, the icing on the cake would be to score on the sunday event. There is a way for us to do it. Just have to see if the models work toward it over next couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 On 1/13/2019 at 7:05 PM, NCSNOW said: Euro is a nice thump backside mtns no doubt next Sunday as polar air comes gangbusters on backside. We need the trough to go neutral quicker. To posotive leaning. If it would we could see those solutions like last night show up again. The ensembles still look good all next week, the icing on the cake would be to score on the sunday event. There is a way for us to do it. Just have to see if the models work toward it over next couple of days. Expand Besides at this range (D8-5) we lose storms anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 On 1/13/2019 at 6:47 PM, BornAgain13 said: So much for those monster runs for a winter storm next weekend... that faded away fast... theirs a storm but to warm. Expand Why look at op runs past 7 days? Hell even past 5 days! I'm sure next weekend won't workout. Cold chasing moisture never does and that surely won't change now. I'm as pessimistic about snow as they come. And I'm sure we'll screw it up. At least SC will. But the pattern after next weekend is as good as any to cash in. Why do we need a -NAO? Haven't had one in almost a decade and it's snowed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 On 1/13/2019 at 7:13 PM, Waiting on snow said: Why look at op runs past 7 days? Hell even past 5 days! I'm sure next weekend won't workout. Cold chasing moisture never does and that surely won't change now. I'm as pessimistic about snow as they come. And I'm sure we'll screw it up. At least SC will. But the pattern after next weekend is as good as any to cash in. Why do we need a -NAO? Haven't had one in almost a decade and it's snowed. Expand Next week was a wave developing on an arctic front. It was nothing near cold chasing moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 On 1/13/2019 at 7:23 PM, Queencitywx said: Next week was a wave developing on an arctic front. It was nothing near cold chasing moisture. Expand I'm guessing it was on this front after it cleared the area then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 On 1/13/2019 at 7:29 PM, Waiting on snow said: I'm guessing it was on this front after it cleared the area then? Expand The front passed through and a secondary wave developed in georgia, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 On 1/13/2019 at 7:33 PM, Queencitywx said: The front passed through and a secondary wave developed in georgia, yes. Expand In the past that seemed to be a good way to get a snow here. If that's the case with this one it still has legs I'm sure. Can't expect the models to catch that at this range I wouldn't think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 On 1/13/2019 at 7:35 PM, Waiting on snow said: In the past that seemed to be a good way to get a snow here. If that's the case with this one it still has legs I'm sure. Can't expect the models to catch that at this range I wouldn't think. Expand Yeah, that's why i was so excited about it. I've seen that scenario work but it seems like it's been lost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 On 1/13/2019 at 7:36 PM, Queencitywx said: Yeah, that's why i was so excited about it. I've seen that scenario work but it seems like it's been lost. Expand Seems like those always popped up at 3 days out or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 So we’ve went from blockbuster pattern, to clippers will save us, in about 12 hours ! This winter is the best ever! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 On 1/13/2019 at 7:16 PM, Bob Chill said: Your area needs suppressed blocked flow. This panel is nearly perfect for NC snow and it's just getting started. The most impressive part is every past piece of long range guidance looks like this. You guys are getting snow. It's not an if but a when. Bad luck and chaos are the only negatives. Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 On 1/13/2019 at 7:56 PM, mackerel_sky said: So we’ve went from blockbuster pattern, to clippers will save us, in about 12 hours ! This winter is the best ever! Expand Relax. No guarantees, but the coming pattern (late January-February) looks about as good as it can look at this range. I feel the system next weekend is what opens the door for the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 What the EURO ensembles look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 On 1/13/2019 at 8:06 PM, msuwx said: Relax. No guarantees, but the coming pattern (late January-February) looks about as good as it can look at this range. I feel the system next weekend is what opens the door for the pattern. Expand I would call it an epic pattern, but we have to remember, in the non-mountain SE, "epic" means 30% chance of significant winter weather, as opposed to the usual 1%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Hey guys and gals, havent posted much this year in your sub. Next weekend is going to be really tough for snow for both our regions. Ice is a legit threat though. Beyond that things get really ripe for the mid atlantic and southeast. Davis straight block, neg ao, pos pna, and trough north of HI in the pac. Pac energy undercutting the pna ridge and suppressed flow in the east could lead to a big dog down there. This pattern is the best since 09-10 in general but appears to be colder to much colder than jan/feb 2010. Get your rest now because sleep will be at a premium here shortly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 On 1/13/2019 at 8:42 PM, Bob Chill said: Hey guys and gals, havent posted much this year in your sub. Next weekend is going to be really tough for snow for both our regions. Ice is a legit threat though. Beyond that things get really ripe for the mid atlantic and southeast. Davis straight block, neg ao, pos pna, and trough north of HI in the pac. Pac energy undercutting the pna ridge and suppressed flow in the east could lead to a big dog down there. This pattern is the best since 09-10 in general but appears to be colder to much colder than jan/feb 2010. Get your rest now because sleep will be at a premium here shortly... Expand Looks amazing!! The Pacific I can buy. But what's the chances the -NAO isn't just a phantom? We've seen that modeled dozens of times the last few years only to never materialize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 On 1/13/2019 at 8:49 PM, Waiting on snow said: Looks amazing!! The Pacific I can buy. But what's the chances the -NAO isn't just a phantom? We've seen that modeled dozens of times the last few years only to never materialize. Expand This sure looks like the real deal. All global ens and longer range weeklies/seasonal guidance shows the exact same thing... a big red ball over Greenland with a strong signal for a west based neg nao and neg ao. Previous blocking episodes like the one being advertised last between 30-60 days with the average around 45. It will wax and wane over longer timescales but if it forms, expect it to stay. This isn't looking like a phantom digital block. If things change i'll post about it. Keep an eye on the western atlantic ridge. That's the feature that throws a wrench in next weekend but it's all part of a large scale process. The atlantic ridge should move into the nao region after next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Is there any reason to worry about the MJO re-emerging on the non favorable side? I know for the most part the magnitude looks weak, and thankfully for now it looks to quickly loop back towards 7-8 or at least back in the circle so it’s not too bad. But what sort of wrenches could it throw, if any? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Ensembles: 7/50 give me at least .1" next weekend, 5/50 give me recordable snow on the 27th including one really nice 4" event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 On 1/13/2019 at 9:04 PM, SnowDawg said: Is there any reason to worry about the MJO re-emerging on the non favorable side? I know for the most part the magnitude looks weak, and thankfully for now it looks to quickly loop back towards 7-8 or at least back in the circle so it’s not too bad. But what sort of wrenches could it throw, if any? Expand I'm not sure. I'd say it's always a concern in the south anytime a tele is unfavorable. I guess it would depend on how strong it is in the unfavorable phases and how quick it gets through them. A lot of people think the MJO is what ruined our pattern for the last month and lead to the dreadful Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 On 1/13/2019 at 8:58 PM, Bob Chill said: This sure looks like the real deal. All global ens and longer range weeklies/seasonal guidance shows the exact same thing... a big red ball over Greenland with a strong signal for a west based neg nao and neg ao. Previous blocking episodes like the one being advertised last between 30-60 days with the average around 45. It will wax and wane over longer timescales but if it forms, expect it to stay. This isn't looking like a phantom digital block. If things change i'll post about it. Keep an eye on the western atlantic ridge. That's the feature that throws a wrench in next weekend but it's all part of a large scale process. The atlantic ridge should move into the nao region after next weekend. Expand Thanks for dropping in Glad things are finally turning for you guys in the MA forum as well Bob. Checking in there from time to time over the last few weeks was beginning to wonder if someone was going to need to medicate that thread. The MA was getting the DT's from snow drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 On 1/13/2019 at 8:58 PM, Bob Chill said: This sure looks like the real deal. All global ens and longer range weeklies/seasonal guidance shows the exact same thing... a big red ball over Greenland with a strong signal for a west based neg nao and neg ao. Previous blocking episodes like the one being advertised last between 30-60 days with the average around 45. It will wax and wane over longer timescales but if it forms, expect it to stay. This isn't looking like a phantom digital block. If things change i'll post about it. Keep an eye on the western atlantic ridge. That's the feature that throws a wrench in next weekend but it's all part of a large scale process. The atlantic ridge should move into the nao region after next weekend. Expand Thanks for dropping by... you are always welcome here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 18z GFS took a nice step in our favor for 1/20 - looks like maybe less interaction with the northern energy keeping the system a little further south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 On 1/13/2019 at 10:24 PM, ajr said: 18z GFS took a nice step in our favor for 1/20 - looks like maybe less interaction with the northern energy keeping the system a little further south? Expand Yeah and a beautiful twin 1045mb banana high to boot (shift that track south since it isn't going to plow into it like that) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 I'm currently arguing with a weanie in NY on a Discord server about the track of that low... He thinks it will plow into those 1045s to give him that fantasy 15" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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