NCSNOW Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Nice little thump on 0z euro.2-4 i40 Nc From mtns to Raleigh area. Continues to not wind up the low, sheared energy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 21 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Nice little thump on 0z euro.2-4 i40 Nc From mtns to Raleigh area. Continues to not wind up the low, sheared energy. 6z GFS improved over 0z... Colder, low off coast, and better CAD. Baby steps 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 During heart of precip... I have a feeling of deja vu Dewpoints look decent... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 6z trending the right way! A few more tics S, I could get some frozen! Looks good from warm-biased GFS though! 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 GFS turned into a southern slider.. looks like mainly driven by the jetstream flattening out and good confluence up north. Hopefully not a blip and trends continue for NC/SC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 1 minute ago, ajr said: GFS turned into a southern slider.. looks like mainly driven by the jetstream flattening out and good confluence up north. Hopefully not a blip and trends continue for NC/SC GFS caving to the Euro.... what a surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Another snow event for the South ? Incredible 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Another snow event for the South ? Incredible With cold air already in place, I think CAD will come in a little stronger in upcoming runs and ice may be the bigger story; especially for folks in S. NC into the upstate / NE Ga. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Just now, FallsLake said: With cold air already in place, I think CAD will come in a little stronger in upcoming runs and ice may be the bigger story; especially for folks in S. NC into the upstate / NE Ga. Happy for the South but some of us in the northeast are starving lol Enjoy if this ends up being squashed =) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Worried about stale cold, slightly!? If this cold front comes through Wed, an the storm came later Saturday, then might be hard to hold on to cold that long? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 19 hours ago, jjwxman said: It's now the "old" GFS. Let's see what the FV3 has to offer. Out with the old in with the new right? Heh... “Suru Saha, a union steward at the Environmental Modeling Center in College Park, Md., said the main impact has been on the National Weather Service’s new global forecast model, which was scheduled to go live in February but will surely be delayed because of the shutdown. But in the meantime, the current Global Forecast System — or the GFS — the United States' premier weather model, is running poorly, and there’s no one on duty to fix it. “ -Angela Fritz https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/01/07/national-weather-service-is-open-your-forecast-is-worse-because-shutdown/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.8e077a25ee84 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 31 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Worried about stale cold, slightly!? If this cold front comes through Wed, an the storm came later Saturday, then might be hard to hold on to cold that long? As long as we can keep that feed of cold air down from the north (in CAD), we should be fine. Cut that source off and we end up rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 We still have some model wars: The euro, Ukie, icon, and now the GFS have a more suppressed look; which gives many more folks (like me ha ha) a chance of wintery precip. The CMC and the FV3 are stronger and farther north with the low; which gives DC a big hit. NW NC & S. VA would still get a decent hit of ice. Edit: added Ukie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 lol...and the GFS says round two comes at day 9: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 55 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Worried about stale cold, slightly!? If this cold front comes through Wed, an the storm came later Saturday, then might be hard to hold on to cold that long? I fully understand where your coming from. This will be different than one of our normal worries you alluded to. We will have NE flow the whole time at the surface. For mby Id say my biggest concern is to end up getting northern fringed due to suppression, which would be good news for you upstate folks. Still think from your area back into NE GA will score frozen. Precip should start before sunrise Sat for yall if my timing is right reading models. Dont hold me to it, but thats another posotive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Looked good for Asheville, Marion, Morganton, Hickory, Wilkesboro, Winston, and other points north and west.Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk06Z GFS keeps all these same cities in the game and expands the impacrs to Greensboro, Burlington, Roxboro, etc. I'm liking our chances...Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: Happy for the South but some of us in the northeast are starving lol Enjoy if this ends up being squashed =) Its 2009/2010 reversed. Yall couldnt find ways not to jackpot. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 32 minutes ago, FallsLake said: As long as we can keep that feed of cold air down from the north (in CAD), we should be fine. Cut that source off and we end up rain. So far, it looks like a pretty classical CAD setup. And, the air mass should be colder than December, so I’d expect a bigger deal, if these trends continue. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 How bout the Nam. Is it runing poorly and no govt worker around to fix it as well? Or is runing normal and we can rely on it like we normally do, the caveat having to adjust to all its known biases, faults etc. Hate to be looking at it Friday and no warm nose showing up, thinking our column is all snow sounding,then waking up saturday to pinging noise. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 3 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: How bout the Nam. Is it runing poorly and no govt worker around to fix it as well? Or is runing normal and we can rely on it like we normally do, the caveat having to adjust to all its known biases, faults etc. Hate to be looking at it Friday and no warm nose showing up, thinking our column is all snow sounding,then waking up saturday to pinging noise. ...we'll have to use the RGEM in its place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mclean02 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 So it looks like it's time to create a thread? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 RAH sounds really bullish this far out. Really good discussion. There remains little to no change in forecast rationale from 24 hrs ago, with average to above average forecast confidence in the overall pattern, but below average confidence in details. The middle Atlantic states will be firmly influenced by cold, continental polar high pressure extending from the upr Midwest to the Carolinas through the end of the week. 850 mb temperatures trailing a pair of polar fronts that will cross cntl NC tonight and Wednesday are forecast to nadir around minus 11-12 at GSO by 12Z Thu. Related cold air advection will support a strong nwly breeze, amidst a deeply mixed boundary layer, even nocturnally Wed night, with wind chill values in the teens through late morning Thu. Although the wind will subside by Thu night, the presence of a "break-off", 1030 mb surface high over the wrn Carolinas Fri morning will support colder air temperatures - mostly between 20 and 25 degrees. High temperatures will be similarly chilly, in the upr 30s to mid 40s Thu and perhaps a 2-3 degrees less cold on Fri. While the aforementioned mid-upr low/trough will lift newd and away from the nern US through the end of the week, renewed nrn stream amplification, with a few distinct shortwave troughs embedded within, is forecast to occur from cntl Canada to the cntl Appalachians Fri-Mon. At the same time, a srn stream shortwave trough is forecast to migrate across the srn US, likely immediately preceding the nrn stream troughs (ie. slightly out of phase), through Sat-Sat night. None of those features, most borne from the large, deep cyclone over the ern/e-cntl N. Pacific this morning, are not forecast to reach the NOAM rawinsonde network until 12Z Thu; and it will likely be the 00Z Fri NWP runs that provide a marked boost in model agreement and forecast confidence - after those features will have been sampled twice by the upr air network (12Z Thu and 00Z Fri), and previous model run initialization influences been dampened by hopefully "better" data. Further complicating the forecast by D6-7 --and possible continuation of large scale ascent, deformation, precipitation production over the middle Atlantic states-- will be the degree of Arctic stream amplification across the sern Canada/Great Lakes/Northeast vicinity, as well as the ejection of additional srn stream energy beneath a developing Rex block over the wrn CONUS. Despite those complexities and details, the overall pattern will be one supportive of cyclogenesis from the GOM to the middle Atlantic coast, with a track and intensity close to the preferred GEFS and EPS means. Specifically, such a solution is unlike the wrn outlier 00Z/8th deterministic GFS track, which favors an inland track through ern NC and warmer solution for cntl NC; and it is closer to the 00Z/8th deterministic ECMWF track (ie. more offshore and colder for cntl NC), and stronger. Additionally strong confluence aloft over the nrn middle Atlantic states and Northeast, though to varying degrees given the uncertainties aloft described above, will favor a well-positioned, and strong, cold high extending across the middle Atlantic states - one that will provide sufficient cold air to support measurable snow across parts of the middle Atlantic Piedmont, including probably the climatologically-favored nrn and wrn NC Piedmont, from late Sat-early Sun, and potentially longer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Let me know if that runs off the page to the right and I’ll delete it. Posting from my phone and it was giving me a hard time with selecting the appropriate section. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 9 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Let me know if that runs off the page to the right and I’ll delete it. Posting from my phone and it was giving me a hard time with selecting the appropriate section. No its fine, and you're right they're bullish. Might be time for a dedicated thread..... but I know nobody wants to jinx it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Going off what RAH said, the 6z GEFS was even better than the 0z (which RAH was refereeing to). Low slight more south with a better high configuration to the north: 6z: 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 I like that high placement but not so much where the LP is edit: It's baggy though at 1017 so hopefully not too much WAA in my neck of the woods Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Do it Falls, you got the MOJO 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 That's a CAD signature if I ever saw one (shame the 850s are still warm though) 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sarcean Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Have to feel pretty good in Greensboro when the official NWS forecast is: Saturday A chance of snow after 2pm. Cloudy, with a high near 37. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Saturday Night Snow likely, mainly after 8pm. Cloudy, with a low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Sunday Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 QUE The Brick to start us up a thread. He usually has the mojo. Tell you what this will be the second thread a needle timing event this winter with the Cad HP sliding into perfect position right as we have a southern wave sliding west to east underneath us. Tis our season so far, knock on wood! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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