FallsLake Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 For right now, this is good enough for me: While the aforementioned mid-upr low/trough will lift newd and away from the nern US through the end of the week, renewed nrn stream amplification is forecast to occur from cntl Canada to the cntl Appalachians Fri-Sun. At the same time, a srn stream shortwave trough is forecast to migrate across the srn US, with some interaction/phasing possible invof the srn middle Atlantic coast over the weekend. While the complexity of the flow will yield uncertainty regarding forecast details for the next several days, the overall pattern is one supportive of cyclogenesis from the GOM to the middle Atlantic coast, with sufficient cold air in place to support snow across parts of the middle Atlantic states, including probably the NC Piedmont, by Sat-Sat night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Has anyone seen the UKIE from overnight? Its usually good at dissecting phased storms. IF its not seeing a phaser like the gfs is showing, then It definitely lends more credence to the euro . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 3 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Has anyone seen the UKIE from overnight? Its usually good at dissecting phased storms. IF its not seeing a phaser like the gfs is showing, then It definitely lends more credence to the euro . I had a link at one point but even then it was like looking at the euro on Tropical Tidbits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Bustardi's negative 3-5 for the winter will likely bust. What's new? CLT was +3.4 for December and the first half of Jan will be even higher than that. Going to have to be sustained cold the back half just to get down to average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 52 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Has anyone seen the UKIE from overnight? Its usually good at dissecting phased storms. IF its not seeing a phaser like the gfs is showing, then It definitely lends more credence to the euro . UKMet valid 0z Sunday. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 FWIW: The 6Z GEFS MSLP Anomaly doesn't jive with the OP. More Miller A-like. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 22 minutes ago, msuwx said: UKMet valid 0z Sunday. Thanks for posting. Just as I suspected. Thats a good spot for the HP as well, unlike the american suite which has the axis way up in Canada and the primary L in eastern KY/TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 6 minutes ago, jjwxman said: FWIW: The 6Z GEFS MSLP Anomaly doesn't jive with the OP. More Miller A-like. That's a pretty good configuration for a southeast winter storm. It would be nice to have some snow cover established up north to refrigerate the air being transported in here. I would definitely favor very western zones with this one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 I don’t remember how far out during the tracking of the Dec storm it was, but I think a few model runs showed miller B options, before finally honing in on the miller A track 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 13 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: That's a pretty good configuration for a southeast winter storm. It would be nice to have some snow cover established up north to refrigerate the air being transported in here. I would definitely favor very western zones with this one. If we can get a good low track / high location, we should be good for surface temps. The initial cold front coming through this week is cold. GFS(s) have low teens (dew points) for many of us. If we can keep that from being scored out, we may have something with this storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 4 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: I don’t remember how far out during the tracking of the Dec storm it was, but I think a few model runs showed miller B options, before finally honing in on the miller A track Yep - Miller A didn’t show up until a few days before if I remember correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 8 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: I don’t remember how far out during the tracking of the Dec storm it was, but I think a few model runs showed miller B options, before finally honing in on the miller A track Yes I think it was day 6 or so. The FV3 ran the surface low into KY an few times. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 12z NAM shows highs on Thursday in the 30s (outside mountains) for many of us. Dew points in the single digits in south VA to near 20 in NE Ga. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 12Z ICON much snowier as it runs a weak low along the gulf with big arctic high to the north. Really picking up on CAD now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 If this storm does happen this weekend....Ground temperatures will be very cold the days leading up to the storm. Sticking would not be a problem at the onset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 12z ICON is Miller A-like. Taken verbatim, would be a moderate-major snow for central and southern VA, Northern NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 GFS looks to cut through Apps again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 28 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: 12Z ICON much snowier as it runs a weak low along the gulf with big arctic high to the north. Really picking up on CAD now. Every bit the snowstorm IMBY that December was and probably more. Some times the euro follows it(and vice versa) so we’ll see, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sarcean Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 isn't it about time to make a thread for it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Not 100% sure, but from what I can tell, 12z CMC is Miller A... tracks up the coast... very different from 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 CMC didnt have anything in the last run so now its in the ball game. Looked Miller A but the 850s looked weird at first look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 8 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Not 100% sure, but from what I can tell, 12z CMC is Miller A... tracks up the coast... very different from 12z GFS yep, much further south. although they handle the low much different, both solutions look icy for many. at least this system has one thing the last one didn't, actually respectably low dewpoints/dry air, and evap cooling potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 CMC looks like a good track but it's a little to warm for all snow... Snow to ICE Scenario for Piedmont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Alchemist Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 isn't it about time to make a thread for itA little early yet, maybe midday tomorrow?? Somebody help me out here is my thinking correct ??. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 It's now the "old" GFS. Let's see what the FV3 has to offer. Out with the old in with the new right? Heh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 18 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: 12z ICON is Miller A-like. Taken verbatim, would be a moderate-major snow for central and southern VA, Northern NC RDU looks to never get above freezing....ICE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 2 minutes ago, FallsLake said: RDU looks to never get above freezing....ICE Yeah, ouch if that’s true. Come on euro and icon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 4 minutes ago, jjwxman said: It's now the "old" GFS. Let's see what the FV3 has to offer. Out with the old in with the new right? Heh... Definitely not a good solution; but one of many real possibilities. Does have some snow/ice in the far western areas before it pushes everything to rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 2 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: Yeah, ouch if that’s true. Come on euro and icon. Canadian is very close to the same solution. But wake County would be the dividing line of significant ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Geez, I'd take 33 and rain over the apocalyptic ice storm the CMC has. Drops 1.50-1.75" qpf over the I-85 corridor which remains below freezing for the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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