JoshM Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 Good morning, everyone! Here's something nice to wake up to (for some of us) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 8 minutes ago, JoshM said: Good morning, everyone! Here's something nice to wake up to (for some of us) Yep, sure looks good right now. Noticed that we lost the Great Lakes low from last run. Mac will be happy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 12 hours ago, CaryWx said: Yes, may not be snow sign yet but I can open the fireplace again after mid month I think We dont fire up the bus for cold, even if its vodka cold. Only winter precip. GFS says to put the key in the ignition. Ill wait a couple more days. Seen to many head fakes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 Random but why is the GFS still active? I thought it was supposed to change to the FV3 by now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icy Hot Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 2 minutes ago, ajr said: Random but why is the GFS still active? I thought it was supposed to change to the FV3 by now? The government shut down had delayed it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 50 minutes ago, Icy Hot said: The government shut down had delayed it. It was supposed to go on till the 20th of Jan or something, before the GFSv3 officially takes over 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 Check out the heights crash on the Ukie. Has the 582dm line on the NC/SC border at day 2,then south of Cuba and approaching Jamaica at day 6.That line usually hangs around south/central Florida in a typical winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 The CMC shows a Major Snowstorm for VA next weekend. Way to soon to think that will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 The GFSv3 crushes NC/SC, what could go wrong!? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 Just now, mackerel_sky said: The GFSv3 crushes NC/SC, what could go wrong!? At least it’s something. Better than what we’ve had lately. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 48 minutes ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said: At least it’s something. Better than what we’ve had lately. Yes, it's much better than the crappy pattern we have been in. Let the fun and games begin. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 RAH says... A complicated pattern evolves late Friday into Saturday as energy in both the southern and northern streams move across the eastern U.S. while an extension of a strong, cold high pressure system over eastern Canada extends into the region. Confidence on the timing and the extent of moisture is limited but some wintry weather is possible next weekend. For now have introduced slight PoPs with a mention of rain or snow across the climatologically favored locations on Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 OP Euro isnt that enthused but does have about an inch across the mountains and foothills down to about a trace from CLT to about Kernersville. Euro control run is a bit more impressive with 2" around Maggie Valley with just up to an inch along and west of 321. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 *Shrug* 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 Repeating patterns, atmospheric memory if that verifies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 Well the tropical convection over the Maritime Continent and the Western Pacific has calmed down over the past week. If we don't see colder conditions develop during the 2nd half of January, it may be time to just throw the hands up as the tropical forcing should be more favorable then. Februarys are almost always cool in the east during El Nino, but: 1) we haven't come close to locking in typical El Nino-like ocean-atmosphere coupling, and related, 2) the tropical forcing (MJO) may not be in the colder phases during that timeframe (7-8-1-2). On the image below, you can see the GFS FCST taking the VP portion of the MJO thru phases 7-8-1 during Jan 4-17 (the green line). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 Grit, The MJO could loop tightly right back inside the COD and pop out in phase 6 or 7 though right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 25 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Grit, The MJO could loop tightly right back inside the COD and pop out in phase 6 or 7 though right? During an El Nino, we would expect to see more periods than not of below normal convection over the Maritime Continent (phases 7-8-1-2) from fall thru winter, but since late Sept, we've seen a lot of cycling of the MJO/tropical forcing - the lower stratosphere -QBO / low solar combo that hailstorm mentioned and the weakened strat PV are likely contributing to the enhanced MJO cycling that we've seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gman Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Glad to see this image. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 6 hours ago, Queencitywx said: *Shrug* Already had one of those. Next. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Should start to see some stronger high pressures coming down if the SSW was strong and persistent. They'll filter down from the strat to the troposphere,Ukie has a 1039 coming into SE Canada at day 6. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 0z Canadian may be lighter, but all of NC gets in on the fun! 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 FV3-GFS continues to show a NE GA, Up State SC, central/western NC, and northward snow threat for next weekend. From RAH: The models are then in good agreement that the aforementioned mid- upr low/trough will lift newd and away from the nern US through the end of the week, with a reloading of the longwave trough from cntl Canada to the middle Atlantic states through the weekend. At the same time, a srn stream one is forecast to migrate across the srn US. Though uncertainty with respect to the timing, amplitude, and possible phasing of those features is high, the overall pattern will be one supportive of cyclogenesis from the GOM to the middle Atlantic coast, with sufficient cold air in place to present precipitation type concerns across cntl and especially wrn NC by Sat- Sat night. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 2 hours ago, FallsLake said: FV3-GFS continues to show a NE GA, Up State SC, central/western NC, and northward snow threat for next weekend. From RAH: The models are then in good agreement that the aforementioned mid- upr low/trough will lift newd and away from the nern US through the end of the week, with a reloading of the longwave trough from cntl Canada to the middle Atlantic states through the weekend. At the same time, a srn stream one is forecast to migrate across the srn US. Though uncertainty with respect to the timing, amplitude, and possible phasing of those features is high, the overall pattern will be one supportive of cyclogenesis from the GOM to the middle Atlantic coast, with sufficient cold air in place to present precipitation type concerns across cntl and especially wrn NC by Sat- Sat night. Gotta love repeating patterns if you live in that area right? As for me, cold rain as always 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 18 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: Gotta love repeating patterns if you live in that area right? As for me, cold rain as always I still think the actual pattern change is going to be late this month into February. If we get this storm (as depicted above), it will be another perfectly timed event. Once we get a "real" pattern shift to a predominant cold pattern for the eastern US, that's when folks down east (including you) will have better chances. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Hopefully today we see more model agreement on this next weekends potential. One thing I really like is we get cold air in place before the precip comes in. Also on the FV3-GFS it lost the lakes low (from 0z) and showed more of a CAD signature. If we get a good CAD setup expect more transition precip types to start showing up in later runs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 The models are going about the winter threat in different ways. CMC and FV3 are dropping in the northern stream whereas the Euro and GFS keep the streams more separated...but each camp at the surface has the gulf to SE coast low. The surface high and damming setup is better with the Euro/GFS camp IMO as the northern stream interaction on the CMC/FV3 brings in more Great Lakes/Ohio Valley Low influence 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Robert just made a great post on Facebook about the possible threat and what lies ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Looks like the 12z ICON is on board for a winter storm. At hr 156 has the snow line from SW NC to Raleigh then Rocky Mount. It only shows rain/frozen so I'm sure there is some ice below that line. Edit: Has the surface freezing line from Greenville SC to south of Charlotte, to south/east of Raleigh. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 1 hour ago, griteater said: The models are going about the winter threat in different ways. CMC and FV3 are dropping in the northern stream whereas the Euro and GFS keep the streams more separated...but each camp at the surface has the gulf to SE coast low. The surface high and damming setup is better with the Euro/GFS camp IMO as the northern stream interaction on the CMC/FV3 brings in more Great Lakes/Ohio Valley Low influence How do we want it to happen , to get more cold and snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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