Upstate Tiger Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 In my 7 years on here I have never started a thread. Maybe I can bring the MoJo. Indices and forecasts seem to be lining up for a wintry January in the Southeast. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Allan stated on Twitter today he officially has his eye on the event post NYE 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 25 minutes ago, Poimen said: *keeps my mouth shut* 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 46 minutes ago, Poimen said: It's good to be north of I-40! I40 - I85; here's a tease. Everybody else; sorry Charlie I honestly don't know how to feel about things going forward. I think there is a lot of potential, but I am concerned about the lack of true cold so far, not just around here, but nationwide. Despite the early signs of blocking we still don't seem to be able to get that in winter, and it's frustrating we're already playing the SSW card in hopes of getting some to come our way. The only thing that seems to be working out is the (endless) rainfall, but we need the cold. When I say we, I mean everybody outside of NC that got burried a couple of weeks ago and have gotten in on several small events already. I said before I fear this is going to be an I-40 /north or even state line/north winter, despite all the positive factors leading in, and that fear has not abated. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 32 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said: It's good to be north of I-40! I40 - I85; here's a tease. Everybody else; sorry Charlie I honestly don't know how to feel about things going forward. I think there is a lot of potential, but I am concerned about the lack of true cold so far, not just around here, but nationwide. Despite the early signs of blocking we still don't seem to be able to get that in winter, and it's frustrating we're already playing the SSW card in hopes of getting some to come our way. The only thing that seems to be working out is the (endless) rainfall, but we need the cold. When I say we, I mean everybody outside of NC that got burried a couple of weeks ago and have gotten in on several small events already. I said before I fear this is going to be an I-40 /north or even state line/north winter, despite all the positive factors leading in, and that fear has not abated. I’m picking up what you’re putting down. It’s been one heathy rain event after another. I’m not so sure these types of juicy (Niño) waves will be able to produce around here. We definitely need something flat. Every rain event here in the past several months has been 2”+ storm rainfall amounts. Blocking will be crucial as well as stout HP’s dropping into the plains to keep our southern waves from exploding. Much like our early December event (except with BLOCKING). It’s never easy getting a big dog around here and I don’t think this year will be any different, but I am hopeful. Euro weeklies looked If I was in the MA it would be hard to contain my excitement 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Here's this aftn's week 3-4 forecast from NOAA (for Jan 5-19). Their forecast discussion is good and touches on many things that have been part of the long range discussion in here over the past few weeks - http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Above normal in Alaska is the gift that keeps on giving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 1 hour ago, griteater said: Here's this aftn's week 3-4 forecast from NOAA (for Jan 5-19). Their forecast discussion is good and touches on many things that have been part of the long range discussion in here over the past few weeks - http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ "While we do not issue explicit forecasts of winter weather potential at this lead, it would seem prudent to note that the forecast circulation pattern would favor an enhanced chance of winter storm events east of the Appalachians, including the major population centers of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, especially later in the period."---That's about as good as you will get from them to signal snow chances even for our (NC/SC) respected areas 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 22 minutes ago, CaryWx said: "While we do not issue explicit forecasts of winter weather potential at this lead, it would seem prudent to note that the forecast circulation pattern would favor an enhanced chance of winter storm events east of the Appalachians, including the major population centers of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, especially later in the period."---That's about as good as you will get from them to signal snow chances even for our (NC/SC) respected areas Bring it! Yeah that's the best forecast I've heard from the fed level NOAA in forever. I'm still waiting for things to fall off the rails but it hasn't. The back of my mind I'm thinking I got my 5 inches for the year, I don't deserve/won't get anymore statistically speaking. Hard to believe everything's lining up for a really great January and February. Cautiously optimistic. Very cautious. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 I live in Northeast Georgia, and based on the forecast for the next 10 days, it's almost certain that we will have another above-normal December in terms of temperatures. That makes 8 AN Decembers in a row, going all the way back to 2011. Is that some kind of record? Have there ever been any other months for which the temperatures were above normal 8 years in a row? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 3 hours ago, WarmNose said: I’m picking up what you’re putting down. It’s been one heathy rain event after another. I’m not so sure these types of juicy (Niño) waves will be able to produce around here. We definitely need something flat. Every rain event here in the past several months has been 2”+ storm rainfall amounts. Blocking will be crucial as well as stout HP’s dropping into the plains to keep our southern waves from exploding. Much like our early December event (except with BLOCKING). It’s never easy getting a big dog around here and I don’t think this year will be any different, but I am hopeful. Euro weeklies looked If I was in the MA it would be hard to contain my excitement Yeah the rain has been incredible, crazy to see so many multi-inchers one after another. Seems we've been pretty paltry with the highs and the cold, other than our Dec storm, and even that was borderline for most. I remain hopeful, as even the upstate has nine more weeks we could legitmately see snow, but I'm getting that sinking feeling that many of the ingredients we were looking at a few weeks ago aren't coming together. Maybe I'm just being inpatient, as this is "supposed" to be a back loaded winter setup, but I just haven't seen too many signs of bona fide cold yet, anywhere in the country. I know the SSW event has the potential to help with that, but it may also not help us at all; and we always seem to be Charlie Brown with the SSW and -NOA being the footballs. I agree that MA and NE are probably golden this year, but we've got to get a lot in our boat south of NC to get anything. That's another reason why I hated to miss the big dog a couple weeks ago. Despite the common view it was a "bonus" snow, it could also end up having been our best chance all winter in this area. You never know, here's to a big pattern change after mid Jan! It's just a bit of a gut punch looking at the mid range forecasts and seeing nothing below normal for at least a couple weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 Just seems like the new norm to be a week or so away from Christmas and searching 10, 15,20 , days ahead to look for the big chill and pattern change!? It’s almost like clockwork! We have the magical unicorn ready to pull out of our butts ( SSW) to make the cold and snowy pattern set up, but that’s far from a certainty! I look forward to the snowman pics from Iran and Egypt in the upcoming weeks, as the split goes the wrong way for us! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 8 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Just seems like the new norm to be a week or so away from Christmas and searching 10, 15,20 , days ahead to look for the big chill and pattern change!? It’s almost like clockwork! We have the magical unicorn ready to pull out of our butts ( SSW) to make the cold and snowy pattern set up, but that’s far from a certainty! I look forward to the snowman pics from Iran and Egypt in the upcoming weeks, as the split goes the wrong way for us! Seen it happen before...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 3 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: Just seems like the new norm to be a week or so away from Christmas and searching 10, 15,20 , days ahead to look for the big chill and pattern change!? It’s almost like clockwork! We have the magical unicorn ready to pull out of our butts ( SSW) to make the cold and snowy pattern set up, but that’s far from a certainty! I look forward to the snowman pics from Iran and Egypt in the upcoming weeks, as the split goes the wrong way for us! Well the 2010s have definitely been noted for some impressive winter torches, but to be fair the historic cold last year set in right after Christmas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 Overnight LR guidance looking pretty good. Lots of good signs showing up as we get into January! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 9 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Overnight LR guidance looking pretty good. Lots of good signs showing up as we get into January! Yup, have to agree there. I’m okay with 5 sunny, close to normal days coming up too. We need to dry out desperately 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 Well it snowed the day me and my wife went to the hospital to induce her labor for my son to be born. Both his 1st and 2nd birthday parties were affected by snowstorms and had to be moved up a day early and his 3rd birthday is Jan 5th. If the trend keeps up then we should see some snow that weekend. Totally non-scientific but hey a trend is a trend! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 I don't know what y'all are looking at. All of the indices except the PNA are going in the wrong direction or are neutral. CFS is blowtorch across most of the continent as we head into January. The SSW probably won't result in a full PV split and may not propagate downward. The models are slowly backing off that solution. There's a chance of a cold January, but it's far from likely TBH. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 LOL @ CFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 35 minutes ago, WidreMann said: I don't know what y'all are looking at. All of the indices except the PNA are going in the wrong direction or are neutral. CFS is blowtorch across most of the continent as we head into January. The SSW probably won't result in a full PV split and may not propagate downward. The models are slowly backing off that solution. There's a chance of a cold January, but it's far from likely TBH. I see that you are back to your old self, now that all your snow has melted. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 56 minutes ago, WidreMann said: I don't know what y'all are looking at. All of the indices except the PNA are going in the wrong direction or are neutral. CFS is blowtorch across most of the continent as we head into January. The SSW probably won't result in a full PV split and may not propagate downward. The models are slowly backing off that solution. There's a chance of a cold January, but it's far from likely TBH. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 51 minutes ago, CaryWx said: But it's 384. The 384 from yesterday's GFS (which is now 360) had significant ridging on both the east and west coasts, with a minimal trough in the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 Hit on the Euro today day 9/10 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 Not very cold, but certainly a nice hit for the same areas that got hit 2 weeks ago. TW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 Euro woof woof. Happy New Year! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 42 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said: Hit on the Euro today day 9/10 https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/north-carolina/snow-depth-in/20190101-1200z.htmlThis looks pretty good too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 44 minutes ago, tarheelwx said: Not very cold, but certainly a nice hit for the same areas that got hit 2 weeks ago. TW Yep, the rich getter richer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 1 hour ago, NC_hailstorm said: Hit on the Euro today day 9/10 Wow an I85 transition line. Who'd have thunk it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 Basically zero EPS support for that solution or any snowstorm where the OP has it painted. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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