December Discussion II

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

 

Thank you, Ray, and again, I didn't intend to imply that your call for this month was a lucky one. You've had a great handle on the pattern thus far. Hopefully, this winter will continue in accordance to what we've both forecasted.  

That was more sarcasm on my part....I knew that you weren't, but rather the caustic rhetoric was merely a vehicle to spark further discourse on the topic that could prove beneficial.

Mission accomplished-

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, michsnowfreak said:

With the increasing snowfall this century, an undeniable trend here in the southern Great Lakes east into New England, I suppose it is possible we may one day exceed the snowfall total, which broke a record that had been in place since 1880 for Detroit's snowiest Winter. Its also definitely possible to see a wall-to-wall Winter with no breaks like that one, just probably not as harsh. What I just could not believe is that we had that much snow with that much cold. Shoveling a foot of snow in -50° wind chills? Snow drifts to top of barns in rural areas and tops of fences in most backyards? Daily ground blizzards and several snowy days with temps below zero? It should have been a tundra, not the snowiest winter on record. If I heard grandpa tell these stories without weather data to back it up, I wouldn't believe him for a minute.

2013-2014 was insane in the lakes...the cold might have been even more ridiculous in the western lakes that winter even if the snow was less so. Several spots had their coldest winter on record, breaking the 1978-1979 winter. Not an easy task to accomplish.

[40/70 Benchmark]

22 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

I mean im pretty sure it averaged positive during the first two weeks. There's a significant rise there into late week 1/early week 2 of the month. Trying to pin down the intraseasonal stuff is pretty difficult anyway. You could even argue that the confluence from the positive NAO was a contributor in the futility in the seemingly good pattern. 

It did, and I never implied nor contended that it would not, or did not. I merely stated that there would be a period of negative NAO early in the month that would have long since abated by Christmas...which happened. I would have gone cold had I though that that would not have been the case.

I have a bad habit of always referring to negative NAO as blocking....in that context, I didn't mean sustained blocking. Later in January and February, I do.

 

[moneypitmike]

1 hour ago, Isotherm said:

 

@CoastalWx @40/70 Benchmark

 

This is in response to both of your inquiries.

I concur that it was easier to see from about the middle point of the month, once it became ostensible that the MJO would continue intensifying further beyond low-orbit. However, my contention is that this was not easily foreseen from the pre-season period in November, and but for the stratospheric induced MJO amplification, December would have finished less warm, and likely with more snow in the Northeast than it did. The literature demonstrates a trop-->strat-->trop pathway, whereby heightened tropospheric induced stratospheric perturbation, climaxing in a sudden warming event, can operate on a dual pathway, with the stratosphere thereupon modulating the intraseasonal signal and further amplifying it. This significant, anomalous amplification of the MJO, in my opinion, as a consequence of the major stratospheric event, was the curveball. A low-orbit MJO would not have ruined late December, in light of other background signals, which favored cooler December. I believe the argument has merit, further, as December was cooler than average through the latter point of the month, at which time the intraseasonal signal amplified materially, driving trough after trough into the Western US. There are numerous cases historically in which the MJO amplifies significantly contemporaneously with a significant stratospheric event, and this is not a coincidence in my view, due to the dual feedback pathway. We saw it last year, for example, wherein the MJO amplified quite strongly prior to the sudden warming event.

So, when I say, curveball/largely unforeseeable, I'm referring to from early/mid November, not a couple weeks ago. Yes, canonical Nino analogs supported a warm December, but we were not following the canonical Nino playbook as far as how we arrived at the result in my opinion. The primary reason for the decline of the pattern late December was the amplification of the intraseasonal signal, brought about largely by feedback from stratospheric modulation.

So, Ray, we'll have to agree to disagree on how the results arrived the way they did for December - as in my view, background signals supported a normal or cooler December. My initial winter forecast included a non-SSW year, so again, the resolution of it is immaterial to the rest of the winter, but I strongly believe this trop-strat->MJO interference aided significantly in hampering winter chances in the Northeast in late December.

Boy. I was sure this was Tip post.

[tamarack]

33 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Boy. I was sure this was Tip post.

Only without the psychiatric undertones. 

[Typhoon Tip]

My last tune in was page 61 ...so, as I type I have no idea what has been written/posted since in this or the ensuing January discussion ... but, the 00z GGEM was an absolute comedy of personal attacks on the winter weather enthusiasts of this sub-forum  No question... that one specific model run was fall-off-chair hilariously mean.

It has a full latitude warm pulse followed by an M/A snow storm that cirrus' SNE...followed by a full latitude warm pulse. 

Got ...'magine the vitriol? priceless

[weathafella]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

My last tune in was page 61 ...so, as I type I have no idea what has been written/posted since in this or the ensuing January discussion ... but, the 00z GGEM was an absolute comedy of personal attacks on the winter weather enthusiasts of this sub-forum  No question... that one specific model run was fall-off-chair hilariously mean.

It has a full latitude warm pulse followed by an M/A snow storm that cirrus' SNE...followed by a full latitude warm pulse. 

Got ...'magine the vitriol? priceless

So I went ahead and looked.  It doesn’t resemble what you posted John.  It even has a snow event at the end of the run.

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

So I went ahead and looked.  It doesn’t resemble what you posted John.  It even has a snow event at the end of the run.

He was talking about the 00z run.

[weathafella]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

He was talking about the 00z run.

Lol..posted well after 12z came out...

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Tip references cmc and icon an awful lot for a seasoned veteran. 

[Typhoon Tip]

boy ... you guys are easily trolled these days.  Sensi!

 

[NorEastermass128]

11 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Tip references cmc and icon an awful lot for a seasoned veteran. 

He mentions those when it rubs salt in our wounds...he's a great met.  Just need to understand his sense of humor.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

boy ... you guys are easily trolled these days.  Sensi!

 

When snowstorms are on the horizon, you analyze cmc and icon more than snow88. You have a fetish, ok to admit it.

[weathafella]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

boy ... you guys are easily trolled these days. Sensi!

Wensi 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

34 cold rain w some sleet pellets yeay

CAD really impressive w this 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

 Surprise to come home just now and see that my neighborhood is just getting above freezing now.  

still plenty of glaze in the trees but a mile into town nothing

[STILL N OF PIKE]

3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

 Surprise to come home just now and see that my neighborhood is just getting above freezing now.  

still plenty of glaze in the trees but a mile into town nothing

There’s gotta be some decent  ice in SNH over to SVT NW MA. 

MHT is 31 and was suppose to be 40 by now 

[CoastalWx]

50 here. 

[CoastalWx]

Isotherm that does make some sense. I’m sure some other things are involved too. It’s been a standing wave more or less with easterlies too prior to more recent westerlies. We are still getting a strong PAC jet. We’ll need that wave to finally move east. I’m sure it will over the next two weeks.

[MJO812]

Another rainstorm  for the 4th on the Euro

SMFH

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

Heh... annywho, stupid government shut-down.

CDC isn't even on line 'cause of it. I'd like to see their numbers.

The CPC is, however ...  wow, zippo reflection out to the end of week 2 regarding any exertion by SSW on the polarward mixing depths ....That's the theoretical course work toward pancaking the vortex into blocking nodes.  In fact, quite the mocking contrary ... having the index showing a 10 days positive spike enough to try and melt the ice cap in winter.

Sarcasm aside...  it may stand to reason.  No sooner did the American cluster start sniffing out SSW shenanigans did the plethora of Tweets fire off counting their dream chicks of winter grandeur before any eggs were in the nest.  I tried to the tease out a semblance of this event being a down-ward welling plume, using that 10 to 30 mb overlay ... it's still in play, but... we still haven't absolutely determined if this will be a real downward propagating event - which over and over again, is the correlation for lag/subsequent -AO.  ...Non of which would happen until the mid January -->   ...It may be that the current troposphere is currently in wait of said exertion... and the index collapses in some future extended range - in fact ...that's my hunch. 

Before that happens, as of last check the CDC had a favorable look... five days ago   Who knows now... But the CPC's PNA is positive throughout the next two weeks, more so than less... That, despite the MJO showing that ludicrously high Phase 6 arc - although it may have relaxed slightly.  So more uncertainty, because what all that means is that the MJO and the PNA progs are out of sync/correlation ... at least as far as the CPC.  ECM' don't show any kind of the same evolution of the MJO but they haven't updated... 

anyway it's tough to use these ancillary means to back into an impression of PNA et al when they are conflicting.  The impetus being ... who knows if we can change the pattern before hand.

   

[snowman19]

2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Another rainstorm  for the 4th on the Euro

SMFH

 

 

The pattern is still going to be horrible then

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

20 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Another rainstorm  for the 4th on the Euro

SMFH

 

 

Move on to Jan10th. That’s the day winter begins.

[Hazey]

Probably another cutter on the 8th or 9th if one were to roll the euro past the 240hr period. Verbatim

[SnoSki14]

17 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Move on to Jan10th. That’s the day winter begins.

Highly doubt it, Pacific jet is raging. Looks like a full blown Nina. 

This is starting to remind me of the bad winters where the models kept pushing back the pattern. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

Highly doubt it, Pacific jet is raging. Looks like a full blown Nina. 

This is starting to remind me of the bad winters where the models kept pushing back the pattern. 

Highly doubt it. Nothing is pushed back. It’s coming in as expected. Back loaded winter from the get go. Enjoy it very soon. 

[#NoPoles]

Pouring and 51 degrees

[Typhoon Tip]

4 hours ago, Isotherm said:

 

@CoastalWx @40/70 Benchmark

 

This is in response to both of your inquiries.

I concur that it was easier to see from about the middle point of the month, once it became ostensible that the MJO would continue intensifying further beyond low-orbit. However, my contention is that this was not easily foreseen from the pre-season period in November, and but for the stratospheric induced MJO amplification, December would have finished less warm, and likely with more snow in the Northeast than it did. The literature demonstrates a trop-->strat-->trop pathway, whereby heightened tropospheric induced stratospheric perturbation, climaxing in a sudden warming event, can operate on a dual pathway, with the stratosphere thereupon modulating the intraseasonal signal and further amplifying it. This significant, anomalous amplification of the MJO, in my opinion, as a consequence of the major stratospheric event, was the curveball. A low-orbit MJO would not have ruined late December, in light of other background signals, which favored cooler December. I believe the argument has merit, further, as December was cooler than average through the latter point of the month, at which time the intraseasonal signal amplified materially, driving trough after trough into the Western US. There are numerous cases historically in which the MJO amplifies significantly contemporaneously with a significant stratospheric event, and this is not a coincidence in my view, due to the dual feedback pathway. We saw it last year, for example, wherein the MJO amplified quite strongly prior to the sudden warming event.

So, when I say, curveball/largely unforeseeable, I'm referring to from early/mid November, not a couple weeks ago. Yes, canonical Nino analogs supported a warm December, but we were not following the canonical Nino playbook as far as how we arrived at the result in my opinion. The primary reason for the decline of the pattern late December was the amplification of the intraseasonal signal, brought about largely by feedback from stratospheric modulation.

So, Ray, we'll have to agree to disagree on how the results arrived the way they did for December - as in my view, background signals supported a normal or cooler December. My initial winter forecast included a non-SSW year, so again, the resolution of it is immaterial to the rest of the winter, but I strongly believe this trop-strat->MJO interference aided significantly in hampering winter chances in the Northeast in late December.

Not to pin anyone's ears back in this discussion... is that published.  I'm just curious, how/what is/are that physically connective tissues - if you will.  Obviously, ...goes without notice that the arctic domain is opposite the equitorial band.  That tends to stretch the direct model's credibility some but ... who am I to say. Perhaps there's some larger integral that concurrently favors both ... so they are not causally linked, per se, but are given 'boosts' at the same time.  ...heh, I like that... 

I mean, on the surface. ...certainly seems plausible do to the eerily coincident timing of this sudden onset warm intrusion in the usual SSW-candidate sigma levels over the arctic domain and the modeled acceleration of the MJO... Okay... But... SSW years (looking back over the 40 year's worth) tend to fire off beginning now anyway - do they all have concomitant MJOs' going nuts?  I'm not sure it wasn't just a coincidence.  It'd be cool if it was more directly instructive though...

Know what it almost reminds me of... well, does, otherwise I wouldn't of thunk it.  But, if you take a conditionally chilled medium of water ...say at 37 F (2.5 C) and suspend it in ice for a few moments...then, just slightly ting the side of the glass beaker, the suspended liquid medium flashes to ice. It's really pretty cool looking.  Going the other direction ... different physics mind you, but, take a boiling cup of water... run out into field five miles outside Tower Minnesota (...but ya gotta be naked for this to work) while it's -40 F ... and throw said boiling contents into the air... Half instantly freezes and half falls shimmering to the ground while the other looks like the anvil on a thunderhead kiting away as a semi-translucent airborne snowball.  

The impetus there is neither... It's to draw examples pertaining to capped conditional saturation forces being suddenly set into restorative balancing, in general ... Here's a hypothesis:  Ozone residence in the polar stratospheric vortex may be unable to absorb heat due to being at a delicate equilibrium with a PV=NRT ...But some kind of gravity wave... perhaps produced by the MJO its self ... very subtle propagates through the medium is that "ting" that allows the cascade uptake of thermal energy ... the PV flashes warm.  I dunno...just spit ballin'  

[dryslot]

21 minutes ago, Hazey said:

Probably another cutter on the 8th or 9th if one were to roll the euro past the 240hr period. Verbatim

Not with that look @H5, Looked more of a SWFE but that's out in lal la land anyways

[codfishsnowman]

where are the low 50s??   rotting at 36/37f here