Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 When did I melt? I said I’d lose it if we don’t snow prior to Jan 20. No melt yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 56 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Look on the bright side. Snow cover of even an inch allows for burning brush without a permit! Lol. I have 4 large brush piles full of multi-floral rose and bittersweet that has literally killed hundreds of my trees. Burning it all on New Years and it will be a great party. Best NYE parties always involve a big fire pit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 An excellent read for those interested in the types of Strat warming and effects on the sensible weather. https://simonleewx.com/2018/12/27/not-all-ssws-were-created-equal/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 1 hour ago, dryslot said: The cutters are really taking there toll on some here, I expect them to continue melting. I just don’t like how they wreck the skiing. It had been good. Now it’s icy. Ah well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 1 hour ago, mahk_webstah said: Scott Will Ray and others...you have been right. Isotherm too aggressive with late December (it seems, as he expected models to correct toward colder solutions) although the ideas expressed by him Ray Don (and probably others) still may be prescient we fiercly hope. It sure is great to have access to this kind of expertise. I am not worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 Looks like counting tonight/tomorrow front end mix notwithstanding we have 3 cutters between nw and the end f next week. Enjoy. Close them until MLK day is in the medium range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: I just don’t like how they wreck the skiing. It had been good. Now it’s icy. Ah well Its not good for most winter activities having no snow, At least we have plenty of ice, It would be worse if this was 06 when the lakes and ponds didn't freeze until mid Jan that winter, I'll just wait it out to ride, In the meantime, I'll fish.............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 50s on NYD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBinStoughton Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: 50s on NYD Blech. Out with the bad and in with the worse lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 May you be without clothes on NYD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: May you be without clothes on NYD. I'll be really happy for all of those in Times Square enjoying the ball dropping in beautiful 55F temps. Yore just like 1876. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 6 hours ago, moneypitmike said: I'm happy that the drought mitigation pattern we had been in for the past many months has shifted from rain events every 2 days to only 2 rain events per week. Things are looking up. Lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 Three more cutters and then onto the promised land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 Warm and wet or Cold and dry is the look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 2 hours ago, mahk_webstah said: Look on the bright side. Snow cover of even an inch allows for burning brush without a permit! Lol. I have 4 large brush piles full of multi-floral rose and bittersweet that has literally killed hundreds of my trees. Burning it all on New Years and it will be a great party. multiflora Rose is the bane of my existence . If you need any diesel fuel let me know . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 8 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: Three more cutters and then onto the promised land. The 1/3 event may very well cut as well. I don’t buy that event being suppressed at all. When has the WAR ever underperformed once in the last few winters or an arctic boundary arrived faster than expected 5-6 days out when we have any semblance of a WAR or SER? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: Warm and wet or Cold and dry is the look. Maybe, Someday Saved by Nino Shortwaves, phase together Saved by Nino Maybe it'll snow (saved by Nino) Maybe it'll snow (saved by Nino) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: The 1/3 event may very well cut as well. I don’t buy that event being suppressed at all. When has the WAR ever underperformed once in the last few winters or an arctic boundary arrived faster than expected 5-6 days out when we have any semblance of a WAR or SER? Sure. 12/28, 12/31, 1/3...did I miss any? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 Give it up, yall. Winters will be like this from now on. Snow will be a rarity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 Just now, LurkerBoy said: Give it up, yall. Winters will be like this from now on. Snow will be a rarity. Our loss is AK gain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 Until the pattern actually changes this is what we all get. The High pressures keep running out ahead of the Lows. Theses Highs need to be coming as the Lows are coming or following very closely behind. Never put you money on a CAD (Retreating Highs) and that seems to be the fault of a poor Pacific set-up pattern. I really hope the Pacific gets its act together or else this will end up being the proverbial "monkey wrench" that ruins a potentially great weak El Nino Winter set-up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 Its been some bad luck and some bad timing on these threats with cold retreating, The one time we had some confluence or building cold its was congrats RIC or dry weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 5 minutes ago, dryslot said: Its been some bad luck and some bad timing on these threats with cold retreating, The one time we had some confluence or building cold its was congrats RIC or dry weather. That's deemed somewhat normal with cold air/arctic around. However, eventually the odds with a pattern like that favor a winning pattern. But this pattern right now won't get it done at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 I don't know. I kinda wanna see the winter of yore turn into the winter of up yore's...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 27, 2018 Author Share Posted December 27, 2018 1 hour ago, ApacheTrout said: Good, concise explanation. The problem we have is the μ has shifted warmer, while our memory of μ has remained the same. Ha ha! zactly... I stopped shy of venturing there in that verbose rendition... The memory has an interesting way of interfering with objectivity ... It seems, mental data parts company from empirical -based data at times. Particularly, in those that assign a 'personal' value to matters. But... yeah, I agree we are 'changing the mean' - as I put it before. How much... how that may express (or not) relative to circumstance and so forth ... meh, too murky of a subject matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 I could do without the cold dry windy days in between warmups/rainers. Let’s just get DSD’s going. Maybe Saturday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 20 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said: Give it up, yall. Winters will be like this from now on. Snow will be a rarity. Well no, the past 20 years have been some of the snowiest we've ever seen. I'm shocked we haven't had more bad years. As far as this winter goes, the moment of truth is only 3 weeks away. Either the warmies will look foolish and be forced to eat crow or the forecasters will hide in their bunkers to escape the warmies. Fun times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 As others have alluded to, this pattern is prone to cutters and here we are. It’s not a pretty sight for the time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 11 minutes ago, Greg said: That's deemed somewhat normal with cold air/arctic around. However, eventually the odds with a pattern like that favor a winning pattern. But this pattern right now won't get it done at all. Sure, But to much of a good thing could also be a bad thing, To much of a block and threats will end up in the Mid Atlantic region if it does set up, Then watch what happens on here if that would be the case after these cutters. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 To bad i have 0 faith in the GGEM but its shows how some can get lucky with the NYD event as it develops a secondary that tracks along the coast and keeps the cold air in place longer, That's something to watch going forward to see if anything more reliable picks up on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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