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December Discussion II


Typhoon Tip

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1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

NAEFS guidance has quite a few members that wipe out much of the pack at Moretown, VT. On average it's only about an inch liquid lost, but quite a few knock it down below an inch left on the ground. Even the picnic tables are under attack.

MOOV1.NAEFS.SWE.expvalue_zps7swojnxt.gif

Knock it down To a inch Water equivalent on ground, not inch of snow 

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Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I kno you are aware lol, I imagine many on the board reading that fast and hearing inch left and ya .

”3 to 1” is a disaster . Is the pack ripe or something 

Probably not yet, but 1-2 inches of rain and warm temps will get it there quickly. I'm not entirely sure how the model determines snowmelt (i.e. how it ripens the pack) so it could be too aggressive. 

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1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Winter was coming back on the 20th, then the 25th....now it’s early Jan? You keep rushing it, be patient. You’ll get 4 weeks of it, mostly in Feb. No wire to wire, just a bunch of strings dangling cold carrots in your sleep. 

Let’s look for one, high-sun-angle slopfest in mid March? :thumbsdown:

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This season has always had grinch written all over it....sucks.

At least I have no snowpack to wipe out lol

The grinch has no toys to swipe...

Yeah .. strangely enough this one doesn’t bother me at all. Nothing to protect . Just hope the 24th system can whiten things up 

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29 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I kno you are aware lol, I imagine many on the board reading that fast and hearing inch left and ya .

”3 to 1” is a disaster . Is the pack ripe or something 

06z GFS dumps about 2.3" RA at Augusta late week, with temps creeping over 50.  That might do it, a high-end Grinch.  (Of course, GFS always seems to majorly dump snowstorm qpf about 12-24 hours before first flakes.  Maybe the same for a cutter?)

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I was in BUF this past weekend and watched a weak snowpack vaporize there. But at least it looked decent the first day. 

Looks like not much has changed in a few days. Still looking ugly for dec 21-22...our last ditch effort for Xmas eve is still possible but it looks pretty paltry right now. 

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23 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah .. strangely enough this one doesn’t bother me at all. Nothing to protect . Just hope the 24th system can whiten things up 

Doubt it. I have always felt that it would take until the last week of the season in order to even entertain the notion of a significant snow event. Its probably more likely that we wait until after the new year.

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SSW Event

Earthlight

"This is about a consistent of a signal as you will see for major, near record-breaking warmth at 10hPa from 60-90N ."

 

Isotherm

"This SSW event appears to be a virtual lock, and it's been awhile since I've been positive about a winter; I'm more interested about prospects than I've been in 4+ years, going forward for this winter"

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13 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

SSW Event

Earthlight

"This is about a consistent of a signal as you will see for major, near record-breaking warmth at 10hPa from 60-90N ."

 

Isotherm

"This SSW event appears to be a virtual lock, and it's been awhile since I've been positive about a winter; I'm more interested about prospects than I've been in 4+ years, going forward for this winter"

That is awesome....January may very well be colder than I had anticipated because I didn't expect a SSW. HM was saying that the last time that he saw this profound a signal was January 2004 (Steve may nail the brutal cold)....now imagine overlaid onto a weak modoki canvas.....not saying that it will happen again, but I agree with Tip that this season should be the February 2015....not that season :lol:

If that makes sense?

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That is awesome....January will probably be colder than I had anticipated because I didn't expect a SSW. HM was saying that the last time that he saw this profound a signal was January 2004 (Steve may nail the brutal cold)....now imagine that under a weak modoki canvas.....not saying that it will happen again, but I agree with Tip that this season should be the February 2015....that that season :lol:

If that makes sense?

WOW

 Ray talking dirty

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My trousers have been off since my honey moon....I started looking at ENSO stuff after the wife has passed out in Hawaii, and just never got dressed.

Probably will be ballz to the breeze til April

No trousers, Hawaii, ocean-atmosphere coupling...

You're hitting all the erogenous zones. 

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Just to be clear, I don't expect 100" in 30 days....all I mean is that this period looks more favorable to me than 2015.

But its akin to scoring 15 runs against Chris Sale, then expecting 20 the next game because Porcello is pitching....you reach a point where the sheer magnitude of the anomaly is prohibitive of commensurate expectation.

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1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

NAEFS guidance has quite a few members that wipe out much of the pack at Moretown, VT. On average it's only about an inch liquid lost, but quite a few knock it down below an inch left on the ground. Even the picnic tables are under attack.

MOOV1.NAEFS.SWE.expvalue_zps7swojnxt.gif

Interesting. No idea how much water is in my pack, but I've seen it happen before. That said, I just had a showing for a wedding and we walked around the yard and it's incredibly sturdy. You can stand on top of a foot of snow with zero give, other than the 3" of fluffy stuff on top

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4 minutes ago, alex said:

Interesting. No idea how much water is in my pack, but I've seen it happen before. That said, I just had a showing for a wedding and we walked around the yard and it's incredibly sturdy. You can stand on top of a foot of snow with zero give, other than the 3" of fluffy stuff on top

NOHRSC has you a hair over 4" liquid in that pack.

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