December Discussion II

[CoastalWx]

Could be a tough morning commute for areas just inland tomorrow morning.  Even BOS looks to start as a bit of a mix.

[moneypitmike]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Could be a tough morning commute for areas just inland tomorrow morning.  Even BOS looks to start as a bit of a mix.

That the best we can muster in December is a brief period of sn/ip/zr before a quick change to RN+ is a little disheartening.

[OceanStWx]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Could be a tough morning commute for areas just inland tomorrow morning.  Even BOS looks to start as a bit of a mix.

NE MA could snag a quick inch.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, OceanStWx said:

NE MA could snag a quick inch.

More of a freezing rain type of thing, no?

[CoastalWx]

Just now, OceanStWx said:

NE MA could snag a quick inch.

Yeah definitely. But a nasty PL and maybe ZR mix too inland and not by much. BOX has it nicely covered but I could see it sneaking into 128 for a time.

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

More of a freezing rain type of thing, no?

Yeah, maybe more sleet. Warm nose is not particularly warm initially, and cold will be fairly deep. Once the warm nose gets warm enough for full melting it looks like the surface will be warm too. 

But the soundings have that look of maybe an hour or two of decent snow before any flip. Under the right circumstances a quick inch is totally possible before it all washes away.

[CoastalWx]

Just going by previous experience, but a fresh cold airmass 24 hrs before onset of precip usually is not easy to move inland. 

[OceanStWx]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah definitely. But a nasty PL and maybe ZR mix too inland and not by much. BOX has it nicely covered but I could see it sneaking into 128 for a time.

I don't really think the cold is going to retreat that quickly. So especially Metro West could be dicey.

[CoastalWx]

Chris, how come no WWA for MHT?

Edit: MHT is, but counties just east aren't. 

[dendrite]

Yeah...looks messy up here. Even the GFS op is trying to keep me 33-35F with the 2nd cutter too. So visions of sugarplum 60F dews will have to remain a fantasy. These are really the systems I hate the most. 1-2" of crap followed by cold rain and then a freeze up. Luckily I have tomorrow off so I can get out there right when the snow and sleet are done.

[Chrisrotary12]

16 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

it is a discussion thread not a snow thread no?

Guess my point was more aimed at 1) there isn't much to discuss and 2) 80% of posts in the forum provide no value at all.

[dendrite]

Although the NAM punches a warm layer at 800mb first. It has my H8 wetbulb at +2C at 30hr while H85 is -2C. The GFS is definitely colder so we'll see how it plays out. If the NAM wins out it'd probably be a quick chance at snow, a brief burst of sleet, and then a cold rain.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Its funny how I spent all of November and the first couple of weeks of December fending off weenies expecting a big December, and now I'm ringing the New Year in trying to talk them out of planting themselves directly under the ball as it drops.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its funny how I spent all of November and the first couple of weeks of December fending off weenies expecting a big December, and now I'm ringing the New Year in trying to talk them out of planting themselves directly under the ball as it drops.

It’s your forecasted world, we’re just emotionally living in it.

[Ginx snewx]

18 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Guess my point was more aimed at 1) there isn't much to discuss and 2) 80% of posts in the forum provide no value at all.

Free flowing New England, wait until there is a legit thread,we discuss everything here Chris, you should know that,even the Curmudgeons have finally realized how it all works, time to play and a time to work.This Dec we play

[Typhoon Tip]

3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

We had some big decembers in 2005, 2007, 2008, and 2010...and before you moved in 2002 and 2003. So yeah, you are right. We've been pretty unlucky in December in the 2010s but we were kind of due after the 2000s. We've been making up for it with big Marches recently which ironically were pretty crappy for a decent stretch between 2006 and 2012. So things tend to swing back and forth. 

We're paying the piper early on this year. Even patterns like between 12/22 and about January 7th this winter should usually produce maybe one event but we might get skunked...sometimes that just happens. We ended up on the wrong side of the gradient...but that was always a risk. 

Depends on what one means when they draw from the due philosophy.

The issue I have with it is that I, ...and I suspect many others, hear/read the word due and it sounds like "just deserts," or something. Like sort of poetic justice ... I hate that. For what? I didn't draft up that 44" December, and I'm sure there are just as many folks out there, not of our ilk, who suffered mightily as much as many in here rejoiced - and on and so on... As though the weather (and model cinema haha) has this built in penance scheme, working to punish and reward based upon whether one liked a thunderstorm or something.  Wow, that's one helluva persecution complex, huh. ...And so it gets into a quagmire of nonsense in a real hurry. 

I suppose I just wish there was another way of expressing that    ... Like, just say, "...Since we've observed three big Decembers out of the last five years, the longer term average suggests that a correction to the numbers has to happen, or else, the system is changing"  ... with certain impetus to that ending facet.  Something like that, perhaps word-smithed down into a quicker turn of phrase.  And note, that is different than that other fallacious logic called the law of averages, which I also can't stand; it seems to tacitly assume the failure of randomness in lieu of the averages themselves, somehow dictating the future. When we say "...we are due.." heh - that sounds a goodly bit like that's what we are doing - even though I suspect you were talking about the following:

Purely based upon distribution theory ... the events of course happen when they do, period.  Particularly one that is heavily guided by fractals ... randomness "usually" still falls inside a scope whose boundaries are blurred by a spattering of increasingly rarefying SD events, indifferently.  Time will iron things outs around two Natural orders:  the first being the mean; the 2nd being the changing mean - which doesn't typically happen so fast that one cannot rely on the former altogether...  That is save for some truly ginormous pan-system jolt...  asteroid or MEI 9 volcanism...etc.., in which case, the discussion is moot.

That said, that "reliance" is really what you mean... I get it.  If one observes three huge Decembers spanning back-to-back years, it is at least wise to consider not achieving a fourth huge December in that series without introducing countering result (or more..) first. 

By the way, 2015 winter was 350% above normal snowfall at some sites...  Since the winters since have not been compensating/below average to atone for all that surplus, ...if we go by the due mentality...we probably should never see another flake until 2021

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s your forecasted world, we’re just emotionally living in it.

You've been pretty reasonable.

[dryslot]

50 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Chris, how come no WWA for MHT?

Edit: MHT is, but counties just east aren't. 

He can't get some of his data so he is taking it out on the public.

[Ginx snewx]

holy crap is the NAM cold for CNNE , legit ice

[Baroclinic Zone]

DIT check out?

[dryslot]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

DIT check out?

out

[mahk_webstah]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Yeah...looks messy up here. Even the GFS op is trying to keep me 33-35F with the 2nd cutter too. So visions of sugarplum 60F dews will have to remain a fantasy. These are really the systems I hate the most. 1-2" of crap followed by cold rain and then a freeze up. Luckily I have tomorrow off so I can get out there right when the snow and sleet are done.

Look on the bright side.  Snow cover of even an inch allows for burning brush without a permit! Lol.  I have 4 large brush piles full of multi-floral rose and bittersweet that has literally killed hundreds of my trees.  Burning it all on New Years and it will be a great party.

 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

out

He melted.

[dryslot]

19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

He melted.

The cutters are really taking there toll on some here, I expect them to continue melting.

[mahk_webstah]

Scott Will Ray and others...you have been right.  Isotherm too aggressive with late December (it seems, as he expected models to correct toward colder solutions) although the ideas expressed by him Ray Don (and probably others) still may be prescient we fiercly hope.  It sure is great to have access to this kind of expertise.

[NorEastermass128]

I will say that this feels like the winter I experienced in DC a couple years back. Lots of rain. Hoping for brief mixes at the onset. Rinse and repeat. At least it’s good for those training for the marathon. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Depends on what one means when they draw from the due philosophy.

The issue I have with it is that I, ...and I suspect many others, hear/read the word due and it sounds like "just deserts," or something. Like sort of poetic justice ... I hate that. For what? I didn't draft up that 44" December, and I'm sure there are just as many folks out there, not of our ilk, who suffered mightily as much as many in here rejoiced - and on and so on... As though the weather (and model cinema haha) has this built in penance scheme, working to punish and reward based upon whether one liked a thunderstorm or something.  Wow, that's one helluva persecution complex, huh. ...And so it gets into a quagmire of nonsense in a real hurry. 

I suppose I just wish there was another way of expressing that    ... Like, just say, "...Since we've observed three big Decembers out of the last five years, the longer term average suggests that a correction to the numbers has to happen, or else, the system is changing"  ... with certain impetus to that ending facet.  Something like that, perhaps word-smithed down into a quicker turn of phrase.  And note, that is different than that other fallacious logic called the law of averages, which I also can't stand; it seems to tacitly assume the failure of randomness in lieu of the averages themselves, somehow dictating the future. When we say "...we are due.." heh - that sounds a goodly bit like that's what we are doing - even though I suspect you were talking about the following:

Purely based upon distribution theory ... the events of course happen when they do, period.  Particularly one that is heavily guided by fractals ... randomness "usually" still falls inside a scope whose boundaries are blurred by a spattering of increasingly rarefying SD events, indifferently.  Time will iron things outs around two Natural orders:  the first being the mean; the 2nd being the changing mean - which doesn't typically happen so fast that one cannot rely on the former altogether...  That is save for some truly ginormous pan-system jolt...  asteroid or MEI 9 volcanism...etc.., in which case, the discussion is moot.

That said, that "reliance" is really what you mean... I get it.  If one observes three huge Decembers spanning back-to-back years, it is at least wise to consider not achieving a fourth huge December in that series without introducing countering result (or more..) first. 

By the way, 2015 winter was 350% above normal snowfall at some sites...  Since the winters since have not been compensating/below average to atone for all that surplus, ...if we go by the due mentality...we probably should never see another flake until 2021

Yeah John. It's not that we are more likely to get a crappy December because we had some good ones...we know that isn't true. It's more like "given a long enough time scale, we are going to get a -2 SD string just as often as a +2 SD string."  

So the word "due" is kind of a lazy shortcut for saying that. 

[ApacheTrout]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah John. It's not that we are more likely to get a crappy December because we had some good ones...we know that isn't true. It's more like "given a long enough time scale, we are going to get a -2 SD string just as often as a +2 SD string."  

So the word "due" is kind of a lazy shortcut for saying that. 

Good, concise explanation. 

The problem we have is the μ has shifted warmer, while our memory of μ has remained the same. 

[NECT]

10 hours ago, ice1972 said:

Was there some good December’s though from 2004 for a few or several years?  We moved here in August that year and I remember December not being such a buzzkill as it seems it’s been recently....last December has snow though and that cold....holy S

There have been a few good Decembers, but I seem to remember more disappointments than wintery months.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Yeah...looks messy up here. Even the GFS op is trying to keep me 33-35F with the 2nd cutter too. So visions of sugarplum 60F dews will have to remain a fantasy. These are really the systems I hate the most. 1-2" of crap followed by cold rain and then a freeze up. Luckily I have tomorrow off so I can get out there right when the snow and sleet are done.

Wish we lived there.