December Discussion II

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

We’ve become spoiled. Just about every pattern, even meh ones, have produced great results for the last 7-10 years (save 2011-12). We’ve been on a pretty big hot streak.

It wouldn’t surprise me even a little if we fail to produce in a good pattern in the near future. Whether that’s this year or several years from now, who knows 

Were due, that’s not up for debate.

[Ginx snewx]

Thanks Scott/Will for triggering Tip

[CoastalWx]

John, give me the cliff notes.  

[EastonSN+]

Wow!

[HoarfrostHubb]

To ride in on Tip’s coat tails, it is remarkable about how winter weather/model debate/discussions dwarf tropical or severe ones.  I get it that most of the users on this board are in the NE US, but 15 pages+ about a dusting vs not much more than that about some really disastrous events within our country

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Kinda like the LR look, I know I know. But Raymond’s late Jan arctic shortwave infused over the gulf stream monster storm that rains on the cape and islands....looks to be right on track. 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

Let's see if we start a 00z/12z yo-yo. 

I think that's possible... in fact, "...but it's probably just..." was the internal monologue this morning.

As I'm sure you are aware, there is a whopper (as of yesterday ...) signal in the late mid and extended range American cluster for a paradigm shift. 

This (for others...) precedes and is not consequentially related to the side-car discussion in the last couple of weeks re the SSW and any eventual -AO. That's a separate, albeit 'winter encouraging' matter.

Anyway, said shift features a robust 2 to 2.5 total SD recovery in the positive direction by the PNA, true at both the CDC and CPC agencies. And it's reasonably well continuity-footed.  Meanwhile, having the EPO flirt with neutrality is not a bad complexion (though CPC doesn't appear to calculate the latter?  ...which is annoying) for winter enthusiasts. The NAO is showing it's usual stochastic bop around but it too is also been more neutral with intervals of neggie curvature out there in time. 

I like it that both the low lvl wind flux calculation is on the same page with the middle tropospheric height anomalies.  There disparate methods will move more together than not for obvious theoretical reasons... however, the continuity spanning several night's worth of computations with neither playing catch-up (which does happen from time to time) is suggestive of a well anchored pattern.

I mentioned this to Don in his thread out there in the Gen. W. D. late last night recovering from an 'nog buzz ...that it's interesting how the ECM' cluster seems to be more reflective of the MJO forcing, if not empirically ...by complexion of the fact that it cannot seem to find another look than pummeling lower heights through western N/A and maintaining the SE ridge at least excuse imaginable.

Which segues into your yo-yo ... The model (operational that is...) did start bending the total layout of it's curved lines (hahaha) a little more suggestive of said paradigm shift in that previous run...But, last night, it went right back home to mommy MJO.  The GGEM ...it went much more aggressively in favor of the GEFs/GFS's fyi - ...

Either way, the MJO is moving quickly... The free-sites have the GEFs version of it strengthening in Phase 6 (while again... somehow limiting it's influence), which is a bad correlation for winter geese over eastern middle latitudes, granted ... but it's haulin' ass and 'ill be entering a Phase that IS a good correlation in just ten or so days.  I wonder if the Euro cluster sort of collapses (if we will) when that extrapolation comes into their range?   I wonder what those Weekly sources are doing now - 

Not intending to preach to the quire here ... just sayn'

[EastonSN+]

EURO couldnt be more different wrt amplification.

[powderfreak]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I get all that, but that troll post earlier was based on Freaks discussion about an off hour 18z GFS op run . 

Yeah and my comment was more a laugh on how this forum would be.  

I'd always take the over on being blanked for two weeks in mid-winter in New England.

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

John, give me the cliff notes.  

Sorry dude !  hahaha...

two phenomenon:

what will said -

new one, model entertainment as a codependency source ...  that codependency is much like a drug (seriously...) because there are 'joy' and 'elation' sensations provided by these virtual stories and cinema of the models.

 

[NorEastermass128]

It’s official. We’re at more than 200 pages of December pattern discussion between parts 1 and 2 with BOS failing to see measurable for the month. 

[ORH_wxman]

29 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Agree in principle ... but, I think there is a new kid in the "neurosis" neighborhood ... and he (or she...heh) goes by the name of 'model codependency'.  It's been a fascinating evolutionary ... sort of, 'anthropological' journey over the many years.   

, 

 

I agree with you that the model aspect has become more obsessive and that is likely due to much easier access to more model data and more aesthetically pleasing maps. Back when we were reading 24 hour increment weather.unisys maps for the ECMWF, we could put a lot of interpretation as to what that meant rather than deferring to snow algorithm and qpf maps as if they are more skillful than an H5 map. 

The model data overload has probably been one of the worst things that ever happened to deep meteorological discussion on the forums. 

[Typhoon Tip]

17 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Thanks Scott/Will for triggering Tip

It's fascinating how that... in turn triggers defensive attempts to abase by laughter and chiding ...because laughers and chiders know inside, the truth is a representation of them.

[dryslot]

Social media hasn't helped in this regard with all the fake weather news that gets portrayed by totally unskilled weenies.

[kdxken]

9 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

It’s official. We’re at more than 200 pages of December pattern discussion between parts 1 and 2 with BOS failing to see measurable for the month. 

Yeah but there are pattern changes to discuss.

[Typhoon Tip]

16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I agree with you that the model aspect has become more obsessive and that is likely due to much easier access to more model data and more aesthetically pleasing maps. Back when we were reading 24 hour increment weather.unisys maps for the ECMWF, we could put a lot of interpretation as to what that meant rather than deferring to snow algorithm and qpf maps as if they are more skillful than an H5 map. 

The model data overload has probably been one of the worst things that ever happened to deep meteorological discussion on the forums. 

That "easier access," right right ... 

And it's ease for multiple reasons. Folks getting to consume those sources more readily at a couple index probes and thumb slide or two... But also, really are benefiting from graphics that have dumb-down and spelled it all out. Your in your 30's now... I'm not sure when you came of Met age...but, me being in my 40's I remember when all there was was black and white DIFAX charts... About my Sophomore year in college...the internet and graphics-related software really took off and overnight... the landscapes of consumable weather-related products - it was like opening a door into a new interpretive universe of reality.  Suddenly...it's true: wrenches and pliars and hammers became fascinating to look at.

It's funny ...because I don't think that was the intent of the technology - it seems like the entertainment and subsequent 'joy' dependency emerged as sort of a result of giving all these numerical models their three-dimensional corporeality. 

[NorEastermass128]

When was the last time BOS recorded a T or less for the month of DEC?  Fairly recently IIRC. 

[CoastalWx]

Man every morning is a new melt and nothing has changed.

[weathafella]

Just now, NorEastermass128 said:

When was the last time BOS recorded a T or less for the month of DEC?  Fairly recently IIRC. 

2014.  Care to repeat the rest of the winter?

[CoastalWx]

Just now, NorEastermass128 said:

When was the last time BOS recorded a T or less for the month of DEC?  Fairly recently IIRC. 

Logan has been unlucky. Not that it’s been better here, but I had a half inch from two squalls. Logan has a trace. If Sunday misses,  can’t say it’s from an awful torch pattern. Break out the aqua net hairspray and mullets. We 80s. 

[Typhoon Tip]

20 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

It’s official. We’re at more than 200 pages of December pattern discussion between parts 1 and 2 with BOS failing to see measurable for the month. 

not to be a dink, but are you reading these posts?  like, taking them in?

I'm asking because this statement of yours seems almost amusing given the tenor of this last two pages, in which Will himself has just mused the lost virtuosity in discussing pattern changes in lieu of obsessing about snow.

In other words, you made his point!  I would be willing to guess that ...roughtly half that two hundred pages is grab-assy internet frolic as usual, which can and does constitute pain and anguish by those that 'just want snow' but, ...that leaves a considerable contribution by those that are engaging in "pattern discussion"

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

2014.  Care to repeat the rest of the winter?

BOS actually had 0.3" in 2014. Not that it's much different but technically if you want a trace for December the last time was 2011. 

[weathafella]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

BOS actually had 0.3" in 2014. Not that it's much different but technically if you want a trace for December the last time was 2011. 

Oh boy....lol.

[NorEastermass128]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

not to be a dink, but are you reading these posts?  like, taking them in?

I'm asking because this statement of yours seems almost amusing given the tenor of this last two pages, in which Will himself has just mused the lost virtuosity in discussing pattern changes in lieu of obsessing about snow.

In other words, you made his point!  I would be willing to guess that ...roughtly half that two hundred pages is grab-assy internet frolic as usual, which can and does constitute pain and anguish by those that 'just want snow' but, ...that leaves a considerable contribution by those that are engaging in "pattern discussion"

Just making a passing comment/observation. Earlier in the month (like 12/5 or something) I guessed correctly that we’d see 200+ pages before BOS saw measurable for the month. Don’t read too much into it.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Oh boy....lol.

I’m guessing you don’t want a repeat of that winter lol

[NorEastermass128]

7 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’m guessing you don’t want a repeat of that winter lol

And we aren’t.

The redeeming part about that winter was that we knew we had pretty much zero chance from the getgo. Here, we have chances lining up week 2 and beyond. Hopefully we make some contact. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

22 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Oh boy....lol.

That would suck. lol 

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

And we aren’t.

The redeeming part about that winter was that we knew we had pretty much zero chance from the getgo. Here, we have chances lining up week 2 and beyond. Hopefully we make some contact. 

That was the easiest call ever. Every piece of guidance just said futility. We had one period of cold and a big snow on the south coast, but that was it. I do remember the tropics forcing become more favorable, but all the cold went to Europe where they had extreme and record breaking cold and snow. Even Northern Africa got snow. Lol.

This is just 100% completely different. It’s not even a debate. 

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Kinda like the LR look, I know I know. But Raymond’s late Jan arctic shortwave infused over the gulf stream monster storm that rains on the cape and islands....looks to be right on track. 

Let's take the rain away from Cape and Islands, and place it on Nantucket

[SnoSki14]

The tellies aren't really signalling any big upcoming shift yet. AO/NAO/EPO looks to be mainly positive.