December Discussion II

[CoastalWx]

16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Omg

That’s on the table. While I wouldn’t say the odds are high, it’s not 0 either. We could easily have bad luck. It happens and we are due for some. 

[moneypitmike]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

12z euro giveth, 00z taketh. 

'tis the taking season.

[moneypitmike]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

That’s on the table. While I wouldn’t say the odds are high, it’s not 0 either. We could easily have bad luck. It happens and we are due for some. 

Great patterns can be squandered just like needle-threading in a crappy pattern can deliver.  Giveth/taketh.

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That’s on the table. While I wouldn’t say the odds are high, it’s not 0 either. We could easily have bad luck. It happens and we are due for some. 

That no snow or cold is coming given all model data showing a beautiful pattern starting early Jan? I’ll sell all that silliness. Comments like are just going to give troll posters like that credence 

[OceanStWx]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That’s on the table. While I wouldn’t say the odds are high, it’s not 0 either. We could easily have bad luck. It happens and we are due for some. 

Let's see if we start a 00z/12z yo-yo. 

[moneypitmike]

They way things are shaping up with so many moving parts that's possible.  Better yet, let's see if we can rotate the up/downs between the models to add to the uncertainty.

 

18*

[OceanStWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

That no snow or cold is coming given all model data showing a beautiful pattern starting early Jan? I’ll sell all that silliness. Comments like are just going to give troll posters like that credence 

At various times in the last several days all models have shown how we could whiff on the coming 10-15 days, whether it's missed phase progression or suppression.

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

At various times in the last several days all models have shown how we could whiff on the coming 10-15 days, whether it's missed phase progression or suppression.

Don’t all op runs do that on 10+ day progs periodically?  We’re always told to use ensembles which haven’t shown that 

[OceanStWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Don’t all op runs do that on 10+ day progs periodically?  We’re always told to use ensembles which haven’t shown that 

The point is that each op run is physically possible, and so should be viewed as a way the pattern could fail if they whiff us. An ensemble will smooth everything out, including snowfall from the higher producing members.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, OceanStWx said:

The point is that each op run is physically possible, and so should be viewed as a way the pattern could fail if they whiff us. An ensemble will smooth everything out, including snowfall from the higher producing members.

I get all that, but that troll post earlier was based on Freaks discussion about an off hour 18z GFS op run . 

[moneypitmike]

2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

The point is that each op run is physically possible, and so should be viewed as a way the pattern could fail if they whiff us. An ensemble will smooth everything out, including snowfall from the higher producing members.

 

As is each member of the ensembles.

17*

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I get all that, but that troll post earlier was based on Freaks discussion about an off hour 18z GFS op run . 

 

1 minute ago, moneypitmike said:

As is each member of the ensembles.

17*

Well the EPS certainly has several members that skunk SNE, and a few that even whiff NNE. That's why the mean of 6" only gets to about ORH.

[moneypitmike]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

 

Well the EPS certainly has several members that skunk SNE, and a few that even whiff NNE. That's why the mean of 6" only gets to about ORH.

Anxiety, celebrations, and frustrations loom.

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I get all that, but that troll post earlier was based on Freaks discussion about an off hour 18z GFS op run . 

It doesn’t get good until after first week to be honest. I said between now and then it’s gravy. Between now and then isn’t a lot of time so nuances in the flow could easily help skunk us. Do I expect it, probably not, but it isn’t a slam dunk as you have   seen lately. 

[CoastalWx]

23 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Let's see if we start a 00z/12z yo-yo. 

[CoastalWx]

All guidance has a good look in the 11-15 day. The EPS in the middle is the least amped with ridging our west, but continues to build after hr 300 shown below.

 

[Whineminster]

At first the pattern was good starting Christmas, then it was good starting new year's, then it was good starting a week after New year's, now it looks like it's good starting Jan 16.

 

Happens every year we have a ratter winter. Not anyone's fault, it's just what the models show. 

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, Whineminster said:

At first the pattern was good starting Christmas, then it was good starting new year's, then it was good starting a week after New year's, now it looks like it's good starting Jan 16.

Happens every year we have a ratter winter. Not anyone's fault, it's just what the models show. 

I mean I'm pretty sure most of the discussion was Bruce Willis runway caution flags post-Christmas into early January. A serviceable, gradient look somehow got turned into epic. 

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I mean I'm pretty sure most of the discussion was Bruce Willis runway caution flags post-Christmas into early January. A serviceable, gradient look somehow got turned into epic. 

Fits his name well.

[Ginx snewx]

It was pretty nice to enjoy Christmas with a small covering of snow , not having to worry about the weather and effects on people's plans. Still have hope the 12/31 system can produce. 

[Damage In Tolland]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Fits his name well.

 

[CoastalWx]

18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

 

More like this for him

 

[dendrite]

 

[CoastalWx]

Anyways I don’t see glaring pessimism to me like I did a month ago. Looks like we are ready to go for some potential fun after the first week. The weenies are funny. A month ago I was battling them when they all thought we were locked and loaded for cold and snow. Now, they are all swallowing shot guns as things look up shortly. Quite the mental exercise and weenie-ology.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

 

Diane?

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

I mean I'm pretty sure most of the discussion was Bruce Willis runway caution flags post-Christmas into early January. A serviceable, gradient look somehow got turned into epic. 

We see this happen all the time. We go from a garbage pattern to a better pattern still with some flaws and there's always some weenies who view everything binary. The pattern is either crap or epic. There's nothing in between. 

But once again....I've posted this for over a decade....there's a lot of weenies who don't give a flying fook if the pattern changes or not, only if it snows. That's why they probably should stay out of the pattern thread and only post in the banter thread or the actual storm threads once a legit threat materializes. 

Pattern threads are for discussing the pattern and a lot of probabilistic forecasting is involved. That is not for those obsessed with binary outcomes. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Anyways I don’t see glaring pessimism to me like I did a month ago. Looks like we are ready to go for some potential fun after the first week. The weenies are funny. A month ago I was battling them when they all thought we were locked and loaded for cold and snow. Now, they are all swallowing shot guns as things look up shortly. Quite the mental exercise and weenie-ology.

This was pretty well forecast by you, Tip, Chris, Denny, Will, etc.... no one should be shook.

Even the weenie melts were nailed a few weeks ago.   Patience will pay off.  No need to get excited one way or the other for a bit.

The early returns from Ray’s outlook are looking promising

[HoarfrostHubb]

I was expecting more big positive temp departure days (+6, +10, etc).  We did have a couple but I thought we would get more.  Friday and Saturday will help with that.

Last Friday’s +22 was a killer

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I was expecting more big positive temp departure days (+6, +10, etc).  We did have a couple but I thought we would get more.  Friday and Saturday will help with that.

Last Friday’s +22 was a killer

I posted about it in the banter thread but KBOS is pulling a mini BTV.

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We see this happen all the time. We go from a garbage pattern to a better pattern still with some flaws and there's always some weenies who view everything binary. The pattern is either crap or epic. There's nothing in between. 

But once again....I've posted this for over a decade....there's a lot of weenies who don't give a flying fook if the pattern changes or not, only if it snows. That's why they probably should stay out of the pattern thread and only post in the banter thread or the actual storm threads once a legit threat materializes. 

Pattern threads are for discussing the pattern and a lot of probabilistic forecasting is involved. That is not for those obsessed with binary outcomes. 

Agree in principle ... but, I think there is a new kid in the "neurosis" neighborhood ... and he (or she...heh) goes by the name of 'model codependency'.  It's been a fascinating evolutionary ... sort of, 'anthropological' journey over the many years.   

What your saying is certainly true. As someone who has been in varying involvement since the early days of ... oh, gees "Wright Weather"? ( Wow)  ... then, Eastern... ultimately, this social media outlet/community, I've been able to witness the transmutation of contributor styles and agendas, looking back over the last ten to fifteen years. I can say with objective confidence, when Wright was in its hay-day, the contributorship was more generically weather fixated... But, there was a tendency/bias toward winter.  As Eastern got more popular and hijacked user-ship away from Wright et al ... eventually the crucible of time purified mostly just winter obsession ... with a few folks of pan-dimensional interests - but honestly, I noticed these latter types would not stick around. The most logical explanation for the attrition of that sector ... the best I can guess is/was that the daily grind of was like pushing their content and subject matter to the outside like a centrifuge hyper-focusing winter at a hot core of enthusiasts... So perhaps they lost interest and moved on.  

As American was speciated from that environment ... lifting the ballast of its original user-base from that pool, concomitantly that means it's already pretty strongly tended toward what you are describing ... however, I propose a new phenomenon: I call it 'model codependency' but ...what that is intended to mean is best described by saying:  'for some returning users....  a lot of them, the desire to encounter model presentations of drama supersedes the event its self'.

A fact that came to coherence for me when observing a clear and registerable difference in 8" events that were modeled 7 days ahead of time, successfully, versus those that reared up and 'little crittered' with little headway/warning for which the user core could marinade in the imagination and wonder of what might be in a dystopian model cinema. 

And here's the way that works - probably - ... the 'feeling' excited about a dramatic 'modeled' event, simply becomes a phenomenon-relationship that is not part of reality. Sorry for what that implies... but it simply is true. It's a closed system - user sees model bomb, get excited (which is technically a dopamine response by the way...), and thus, need to see the next model run to get back to that high. All the while this distraction of their lives (which ...of course they do not see or deem as being such...), ...it can be taking place without ever having looked out the window!

Anyway, while I agree with your sentiments entirely (snow enthusiasts filter what they read...), I sense a separate sort of phenomenon has evolved over the years in the general public access to modeling tools.  And, it's not just endemic to the users of this social media, either... Evening news' have taking to elaborate graphical cinema ...tapping into the natural tendency of the average viewer's imagination and excitement to 'hook' them into watching the next showing, by putting up GFS vs the ECMWF virtual storms.   All that excitement of impending "cautiously harmless" dystopian entertainment is really a pretty heavy intent by the users whether they realize that pattern of behavior or not. 

Just another charm of the e-zombie world we've created for ourselves.