Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

December Discussion II


Typhoon Tip

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 2.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, I did say that blocking would vanish before xmas and there would be intervals of RNA early....close enough.

I don't think its full steam ahead until like 1/20...people are going to get ahead of themselves and drive themselves nuts with blueballz...."bust this" and "bust that"..."winter cancel".

Your forecast was very close. Ultimately I think December will end up between +1 and +2 thanks to the big cutter later this week.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Weeklies also went winter early Jan as many of us except Pickles and Runaway surmised 

Winter was coming back on the 20th, then the 25th....now it’s early Jan? You keep rushing it, be patient. You’ll get 4 weeks of it, mostly in Feb. No wire to wire, just a bunch of strings dangling cold carrots in your sleep. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 hours ago, dendrite said:

I think this is the report I recall reading. Guess I need to put up a tall dual fence around my rain gauge now for maximum accuracy. Maybe put it inside the run? :weenie:

https://www.weather.gov/media/asos/ASOS Implementation/AWPAG Altershield Final Report 08-09 v2.doc

Yeah, the double screens are key. Though the screens are a pain the rear to get inside to clean equipment. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

50 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

December is shot. It’s just not a good hemispheric look in the mid to  long range. Hopefully the seasonal guys and gals sniff this out....it doesn’t look nino esque atm. 

The mjo is ruining it right now but it's going to change.

45 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Winter was coming back on the 20th, then the 25th....now it’s early Jan? You keep rushing it, be patient. You’ll get 4 weeks of it, mostly in Feb. No wire to wire, just a bunch of strings dangling cold carrots in your sleep. 

It's coming back near NYE

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Lot of comparing the hemispheric appeal as being either Nina or Nino ...but doing so in the context of blaming a less than desirable December on the former.

Which is it ...? 

I ask that because we can't have it both ways.  In a "better semblance" Nino year, the statistics are signaling less cold and snow in December anyway...with winters tending to be back-end. 

So are we to infer that Nina's also have poor Decembers?  That may be. I don't honestly get that intimate with this stuff..  I don't pour over tedious decimal intervals of ENSO anomalies and compare them to hundreds of Decembers.  Sufficed it is to say, we are neutral-positive in the ENSO with a prediction to more coherently warming as the winter progresses...  Here's the rub (for me..) in a global atmospheric environment that is warm already, and therefor ... no triggering (via established gradient) an ENSO forcing has likely thresheld in the first place.

In other words, it's nadda - neither Nina or Nino "caused" - it may look like Nina, okay... but just in case, I think any confusion might be allayed by the notion that there prooobably shouldn't be any blaming/mentioning of it in the first place.  We could just as easily have ended upo with more -EPO ... and then we'd-a had what?  A cold shot  and and a storm or two in a month that warm ENSO was supposed to be a bad performer. In the antithesis to present performing month...it is not hard to visualize  that getting a by-line in a post but by and large most people just ignoring that little incongruity in lieu of their spoils. 

And around and around we go in the reel of simply not facing the fact that it's just not realistically going to be boreal every December every year.  Eat it in other words... good to have other hobbies when things are frustrating you.

In the end ... it may just turn out that the 'Nino's tend to have bad December' part of this is just simply getting satisfied.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Lot of comparing the hemispheric appeal as being either Nina or Nino ...but doing so in the context of blaming a less than desirable December on the former.

Which is it ...? 

I ask that because we can't have it both ways.  In a "better semblance" Nino year, the statistics are signaling less cold and snow in December anyway...with winters tending to be back-end. 

So are we to infer that Nina's also have poor Decembers?  That may be. I don't honestly get that intimate with this stuff..  I don't pour over tedious decimal intervals of ENSO anomalies and compare them to hundreds of Decembers.  Sufficed it is to say, we are neutral-positive in the ENSO with a prediction to more coherently warming as the winter progresses...  Here's the rub (for me..) in a global atmospheric environment that is warm already, and therefor ... no triggering (via established gradient) an ENSO forcing has likely thresheld in the first place.

In other words, it's nadda - neither Nina or Nino "caused" - it may look like Nina, okay... but just in case, I think any confusion might be allayed by the notion that there prooobably shouldn't be any blaming/mentioning of it in the first place.  We could just as easily have ended upo with more -EPO ... and then we'd-a had what?  A cold shot  and and a storm or two in a month that warm ENSO was supposed to be a bad performer. In the antithesis to present performing month...it is not hard to visualize  that getting a by-line in a post but by and large most people just ignoring that little incongruity in lieu of their spoils. 

And around and around we go in the reel of simply not facing the fact that it's just not realistically going to be boreal every December every year.  Eat it in other words... good to have other hobbies when things are frustrating you.

That's a good point....la nina forcing in December is actually more prolific than that of el nino.......no absolutes, though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This excerpt from the Washington Post had me grinning... 

"...Winter got off to a fast start in the Lower 48 even before it was technically winter. Waves of cold gripped the eastern two-thirds of the United States and several winter storms tracked across the region.

Conditions have since eased relaxed some, but the heart of winter lies ahead. Will cold and snowy conditions return and turn more harsh? .... "

Gee -

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, alex said:

3.25" overnight, not bad! Still snowing. Stake up to 14". 

John up in Pittsburg snagged 6"

We kind of missed this moderate upslope event in the forecast. We did have some likely PoP, but really just our standard 1-2 inches accumulation. Looks like a pretty large area of near advisory level snows for Coos anyway.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...