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December Discussion II


Typhoon Tip

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11 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Is this a situ where anything that’s amps cuts

 

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

EPS shows that.  We snow on Sunday and a warmer solution a couple of days later.

Yeah and that's been modeled so this isn't a new twist. However, it's darn active with a cold source close by so we take our chances. Still look good in the 11-15 day.

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18z GFS pretty much blanks a good chunk of New England through Day 16.  It is tossed completely but man this place would be like World War III if somehow it's January 11th and there's not much to speak of.  Definitely a gradient pattern look but the gradient that run was near and north of Montreal.

On a real note, there's a large difference between the storm shown on 12z EURO for New Years and the GFS.  Would be nice to pop something through that included more posters on here.

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2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

18z GFS pretty much blanks a good chunk of New England through Day 16.  It is tossed completely but man this place would be like World War III if somehow it's January 11th and there's not much to speak of.  Definitely a gradient pattern look but the gradient that run was near and north of Montreal.

On a real note, there's a large difference between the storm shown on 12z EURO for New Years and the GFS.  Would be nice to pop something through that included more posters on here.

That would suck but sort of falls in line with what Ray has been saying in so much as anything major before mid-January is a bonus.

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12z Euro also sends a coherent chinook plume ESE outta the eastern slopes of the Canadian cordillera ... 

Prolly won't mean much to us as it gets deflected and ultimately absorbed into the ongoing continental warm departures already going on in the Mississippi Valley to M Atlantic and points south. But I do find it interesting because that behavior was favored/part of the total expectation when we started this thread and it's kind of cool to see that materialize -whether it verifies or not, not withstanding

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9 hours ago, powderfreak said:

18z GFS pretty much blanks a good chunk of New England through Day 16.  It is tossed completely but man this place would be like World War III if somehow it's January 11th and there's not much to speak of.  Definitely a gradient pattern look but the gradient that run was near and north of Montreal.

On a real note, there's a large difference between the storm shown on 12z EURO for New Years and the GFS.  Would be nice to pop something through that included more posters on here.

Considering the pattern during the last several weeks I do not think it should come as a surprise if we are blanked during much of that 16 day stretch. And at that point it will be approaching the mid point of met winter. 16 days is a long ways out but the trend has not been our friend. As things stand right now there are not any signs of a significant pattern change.

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26 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Considering the pattern during the last several weeks I do not think it should come as a surprise if we are blanked during much of that 16 day stretch. And at that point it will be approaching the mid point of met winter. 16 days is a long ways out but the trend has not been our friend. As things stand right now there are not any signs of a significant pattern change.

I'm confused by this part. What are we looking for exactly? 

Are we looking for cold and snow to be measured? Because if that's the case then we'll never know the pattern is changing until it has actually produced something, which is just not true. 

Guidance is showing a significant pattern change. And a pretty significant winter storm is setting up for the central CONUS as the cold dumps back into the country. 

But don't let me stand in the way of meltdowns.

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