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December Discussion II

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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15 hours ago, powderfreak said:

I'm pretty sure we went from high dews to snowing and even accumulating in the valleys up here within a week in October.  

Whenever that Severe Weather Conference was that Legro attended here was the start of winter, lol.    All the SPC guys from Oklahoma going nuts over steady light snow accumulating in October.  They thought they were at the North Pole.

The actual amount of fall weather was incredibly short.  

Most likely a variation along/within the same decadal (perhaps multiple at that...) climate tendency that began roughly around the year 2000. 

Looking at even a hundred years prior ... provides a suggestion of rareness to observe October snow.  Since 2000?  wow. Some 1/3 to perhaps 1/2 (regional scale) of all Octobers have delivered more so than merely a in the air snow; measurable above a trace, and perhaps the most important distinction, not just at elevation either. 

Since 2000 was nearing 20 years ago ... it engenders an interesting question: whether this increased frequency is merely "millennia noise," or do these represent a fundamental systemic shift.  I mean ...20 years vs 1000 (millennium) is obviously negligible 'sounding.'  

However, the shortest route to a deceived destination is paved in one of the following two:

linear statistic inference;

GOP lobbyists getting their hands on linear-based statistics so that they may do the inferring for you. 

For everyone else, the behavior and 'gestalt' of the data are mutually exclusive, and the best description of the truth about the system in question isn't 'what happened,' it's 'how did it happen'.  

1991 ... the usual serrate of the Globe's on-going climate curve had its noise, but the years since 1978 were essentially on a trend-predictable rise in temperature. There were more at 'standard' outliers, but overall ... I think that period was gently upward sloped ... with less in the way of larger standard deviation years. Then, Pinatubo erupts... Said serrate over the next five years, begins exhibiting a secondary trend(s) ... indicating something had disrupted the status quo.   Pinatubo ... d(status) ... Pinatubo ... d(status)  ... Wasn't a terrible cause-and-effect assumption.

I'm not sure where I'm going with that ... but I think it centers around if someone were to look at the 1990's, then compare it to the last thirty years in total, they may immediately assess that climate change rises(falls) summarily in accordance to that behavior, but that would be wrong. The defining influential aspect of volcanism would be missed from their calculation. 

The point of all this... 20 years of defined onset climate variance is enough (at least for me) to consider a pan-systemic influencer on the system  But more to original point ... one might wonder if "snow in October" should even be considered all that big of a deal in this "new" regime any more.
 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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35 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

So your Avatar now is your October 2011 picture.  And the one Ginx posted is from Nemo correct? 

No the ginxy pic is the avatar showing up when he tries to paste hubbdave's old posts. It's been his avatar for years. 

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Great Snow 1717

Great Snow 1717

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43 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Most likely a variation along/within the same decadal (perhaps multiple at that...) climate tendency that began roughly around the year 2000. 

Looking at even a hundred years prior ... provides a suggestion of rareness to observe October snow.  Since 2000?  wow. Some 1/3 to perhaps 1/2 (regional scale) of all Octobers have delivered more so than merely a in the air snow; measurable above a trace, and perhaps the most important distinction, not just at elevation either. 

Since 2000 was nearing 20 years ago ... it engenders an interesting question: whether this increased frequency is merely "millennia noise," or do these represent a fundamental systemic shift.  I mean ...20 years vs 1000 (millennium) is obviously negligible 'sounding.'  

However, the shortest route to a deceived destination is paved in one of the following two:

linear statistic inference;

GOP lobbyists getting their hands on linear-based statistics so that they may do the inferring for you. 

For everyone else, the behavior and 'gestalt' of the data are mutually exclusive, and the best description of the truth about the system in question isn't 'what happened,' it's 'how did it happen'.  

1991 ... the usual serrate of the Globe's on-going climate curve had its noise, but the years since 1978 were essentially on a trend-predictable rise in temperature. There were more at 'standard' outliers, but overall ... I think that period was gently upward sloped ... with less in the way of larger standard deviation years. Then, Pinatubo erupts... Said serrate over the next five years, begins exhibiting a secondary trend(s) ... indicating something had disrupted the status quo.   Pinatubo ... d(status) ... Pinatubo ... d(status)  ... Wasn't a terrible cause-and-effect assumption.

I'm not sure where I'm going with that ... but I think it centers around if someone were to look at the 1990's, then compare it to the last thirty years in total, they may immediately assess that climate change rises(falls) summarily in accordance to that behavior, but that would be wrong. The defining influential aspect of volcanism would be missed from their calculation. 

The point of all this... 20 years of defined onset climate variance is enough (at least for me) to consider a pan-systemic influencer on the system  But more to original point ... one might wonder if "snow in October" should even be considered all that big of a deal in this "new" regime any more.
 

Where did you find the data for Oct snows?....just curious. thank you

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weathafella

weathafella

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3 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Who knows?????

When I first looked I’m thinking wtf?   But that’s a strong pna which would probably keep us in good shape.  We’ll see.   Sometimes these tellies are just numbers with oscillations of a few hundred miles making big differences.

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Great Snow 1717

Great Snow 1717

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5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

When I first looked I’m thinking wtf?   But that’s a strong pna which would probably keep us in good shape.  We’ll see.   Sometimes these tellies are just numbers with oscillations of a few hundred miles making big differences.

And too far out in time to determine.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Fyi -

That's the Climate Diagnostic Center source above. 

There is another, which "might" be arguable as being more pertinent to winter weather, but don't quote me.  Those are provided by the Climate Prediction Center.

The CDC determines the low level tropospheric wind anomalies.  Increased low level flux from the N within it's domain designation means (-) sign.  Naturally... flux going N is (+).  Those, when the low level wind flow in the N Atlantic Basin is averaging S ... depending to what magnitude that is the case determines the -NAO and vice versa. 

The CPC determines the mid level tropospheric geopotential height anomalies. The negative phase state features higher than normal heights.  The positive naturally being opposite.  

Referring back to classical Meteorological training ... higher heights concomitantly is associated with increased surface pressure... such that when there is a higher heights over say... western Greenland, there tends to be increased surface pressure in the vicinity beneath ... Since wind always flows from sources of higher toward lower pressure to conserve mass everywhere at all times perpetually and seamlessly when dealing with gases of any medium in free space, even for the total nimrod ... hey!  -NAO at CPC must also be a -NAO at CDC because the heights and the low level wind are inexorably linked.

In essence that is true... However, there is time variable to consider ... Rapid phase changes in the heights of CPC, may precede the low level wind anomaly detection of the CDC ... by some. At larger than mesoscale phenomenon, The atmosphere always changes aloft, first. Therefore, a rising (falling) index at CPC may in fact not represent identically at CDC in terms of total standard deviation.

Think of CDC as the result of balancing/restorative forcing within days of rapid changes in the other... Or, in times when the CPC may modulate more slowly... the CDC may more properly reflect a similar index complexion.

For winter, it is the larger-scaled height nodes, positive or negative, that signal the orientation of the larger wave progressions in the atmosphere ... These wave feature when/where storms evolve...the cold or hot conveyors are situated... and on and so on...  So it seems intuitive that the CPC might be "slightly" more instructive on the real d(status) of things. 

 

 

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DavisStraight

DavisStraight

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2 hours ago, weathafella said:

When I first looked I’m thinking wtf?   But that’s a strong pna which would probably keep us in good shape.  We’ll see.   Sometimes these tellies are just numbers with oscillations of a few hundred miles making big differences.

It does look more interesting after the cutter, could be a good month coming up.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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10 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I’d say it’s looking at least 50/50

the Gradient between ORH and Stowe mtn is mind blowing this particular year. Futility for one in December and near record year to date for the other. 

Let that marinate 

December hasn't been *that* good up here.  I'll have to look but it is likely below normal snowfall, but it was very cold for the first half of the month.  We were just riding on the coat tails of record November snows, followed by refreshing events but nothing huge in December.  The brutal cold departures just continued the theme of deep winter despite no true "storms".   

Having constant snow cover for like 6 solid weeks leading into Christmas, it does put you in a different mindset, like man this winter has been going on for a while.

To me the biggest snowfall gradient was somewhere between northern Mass and like Gene's area in that first round of winter.  Gene having a 30+ inch November compared with 50 miles south was a decent gradient.

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