December Discussion II

[dendrite]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

 

Which we had this year 

And it is exceptionally rare to have a fall seem as short as this one did.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, dendrite said:

And it is exceptionally rare to have a fall seem as short as this one did.

New norm?

[weathafella]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

 

Which we had this year 

Occasionally it happens.  I’ve seen way more March snow vs December in my lifetime and it’s a pretty big sample size.

[weathafella]

System around the 31st could be good.

[WinterWolf]

 

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Occasionally it happens.  I’ve seen way more March snow vs December in my lifetime and it’s a pretty big sample size.

Ya, I can be your son and so have I.  

[ORH_wxman]

4 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Well to some it doesn't matter if the pattern changes...they need sensible changes.  It either snows or it doesn't.  And if it rains from a cutter, it doesn't matter if the entire hemisphere changed orientation, it's still rain thus no pattern change.  

I've said this for over a decade on the forums for a large majority of posters. The pattern thread is the wrong thread to post in for those people. If they don't understand the talk about patterns and probability, then they should go b*tch in the banter thread about how they haven't had as much snow as they want. 

[Tom12309]

One year skiing at Gore in great conditions I laughed because the chalkboard at the base of lift counted down the days to trout season and there were seven days left.

[CoastalWx]

Of course I wish December were a 20” month, but it’s just not happening Kev. The 1970, 2007, 2098 etc of the world may work out...but overall I have a better chance of scoring in March. That goes for many. It’s how climo roles. So while Tip is talking about his bum bum feeling warm and dreams of scantily clad women in front of Fox hall Lowell, We track. 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

SSW showing some semblance again of actually down-welling in the GEFs ... an important factor for eventual (lag) -AO response...  Not to be mistaken with vortex splitting prior to ~ 20 days from now...

Prior to any or all of that... there is also a three day continuity/coherent index suggestion for storminess leading to and throughout the first week of January.

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

And it is exceptionally rare to have a fall seem as short as this one did.

I'm pretty sure we went from high dews to snowing and even accumulating in the valleys up here within a week in October.  

Whenever that Severe Weather Conference was that Legro attended here was the start of winter, lol.    All the SPC guys from Oklahoma going nuts over steady light snow accumulating in October.  They thought they were at the North Pole.

The actual amount of fall weather was incredibly short.  

[Sugarloaf1989]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

I'm pretty sure we went from high dews to snowing and even accumulating in the valleys up here within a week in October.  

Whenever that Severe Weather Conference was that Legro attended here was the start of winter, lol.    All the SPC guys from Oklahoma going nuts over steady light snow accumulating in October.  They thought they were at the North Pole.

The actual amount of fall weather was incredibly short.  

It's wrecking the Fall foliage season. 

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

I haven’t seen the 11-15 day eps but lr gefs are tastey. Would be nice to sneak in a couple events before new year but post keeps looking good. Maybe we don’t have to wait until mid Jan like some of the greats say we do. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I haven’t seen the 11-15 day eps but lr gefs are tastey. Would be nice to sneak in a couple events before new year but post keeps looking good. Maybe we don’t have to wait until mid Jan like some of the greats say we do. 

No one has said that it won't snow until mid Jan...if fact, I'd be stunned if absolutely nothing worked out between now and then. But it is a crap shoot until closer to mid month...progressive improvement between now and then, though.

[Ginx snewx]

NYE has potential 

[Randy4Confluence]

5 hours ago, weathafella said:

System around the 31st could be 

What does the Euro show?

[weathafella]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

NYE has potential 

Agree.   Been a signal for a few days now.

[weathafella]

Just now, Randy4Confluence said:

What does the Euro show?

EPS likes that day also.

[Greg]

I would like to be a few days closer to that before I become vested.

[MJO812]

Gfs brings in the freezer after New years

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, Greg said:

I would like to be a few days closer to that before I become vested.

Don't blame you, but one of these should work out before the bonafide potential lateer Jan. I've been just laying low waiting for something viable to invest in...lots of fleeting voodoo threats.

[SnoSki14]

2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

NYE has potential 

Looks pretty interesting, could go in multiple directions. Gfs shows more of an Arctic front, some show coastal/wave development. 

At this point I'll take anything.

Gfs/Euro are vastly different going into the new year. MJO supports Euro's eastern ridge idea. 

[78Blizzard]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

NYE has potential 

0z IKON has nice little event for some.

[OceanStWx]

7 hours ago, dendrite said:

Expectations (aka climo) /= Wants

 

11 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Well to some it doesn't matter if the pattern changes...they need sensible changes.  It either snows or it doesn't.  And if it rains from a cutter, it doesn't matter if the entire hemisphere changed orientation, it's still rain thus no pattern change.  

The "pattern" discussion always goes off the rails because of the general willful ignorance of climo. When the chatter starts about a good look coming up, people start pushing the envelope of possibility vs probability. If we call a two week stretch serviceable, what should be a reasonable expectation for snowfall? If serviceable is a normal winter pattern pattern, some hits some misses, well there isn't a single SNE locale that normally gets 10" in two weeks. CON is just barely above 9". 

I more often get the sense that people think they should be consistently pulling off 20" months in the heart of winter, when that's more like double climo. I commend Ray for a sensible forecast coming up. He's clearly excited about the horizon, and expecting one big storm with a ~30" month. For a really good pattern that's totally reasonable. And obviously teasing out the difference between 30" in a month and Feb 2015 is a total crapshoot. You just have to hit every chance.

[DavisStraight]

Some expect 20" storms a couple times a month, we've been spoiled the last few years.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Clipper energy on the 30-31st needs to be watched, this is separate from the NYE potential.  +PNA says we have a digging northern stream.

[CoastalWx]

Yeah somewhere from 12/31 -1/1 depending on what model you choose, has a decent look. Would be nice to get something and not have one of the worst months ever.

[CoastalWx]

That’s a nice CJ of yore on the op for like 36hrs.

[moneypitmike]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah somewhere from 12/31 -1/1 depending on what model you choose, has a decent look. Would be nice to get something and not have one of the worst months ever.

too, late.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

6 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Looks pretty interesting, could go in multiple directions. Gfs shows more of an Arctic front, some show coastal/wave development. 

At this point I'll take anything.

Gfs/Euro are vastly different going into the new year. MJO supports Euro's eastern ridge idea. 

Models are supporting a +PNA ridge out west, I think the northern stream is more likely to amplify and dig southeastward instead of remain flat in southern Canada, I think the EURO is mishandling the northern stream potential.  Watch that clipper/arctic shortwave system on the 30-31st DEC.

[HoarfrostHubb]

6 hours ago, DavisStraight said:

Some expect 20" storms a couple times a month, we've been spoiled the last few years.

Not meaning to sound like a whiner, but I haven’t had a 20” event since 2011, yet have done pretty well as far as getting AN snowfall 5 out of 7 years since that woeful season.

Nickels can add up...   add in a few dimes and we can make a season.

While skunking December is not ideal it is not critical