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December Discussion II


Typhoon Tip

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2 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Isotherm and Earthlight really love January onward.

Snowy winter incoming

They're great and everything but they clearly missed the boat on December, but then again most have. 

I believe Iso had December as the coldest relative to normal this season and they both had it colder than normal.

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3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

They're great and everything but they clearly missed the boat on December, but then again most have. 

I believe Iso had December as the coldest relative to normal this season and they both had it colder than normal.

I don't think I'm that far off, so far...

 

December%2BForecast.png
 
The current scandinavian ridge should retrograde towards Greenland for the first couple of weeks of December, some significant snows are likely for much of New England. The PNA may struggle to become established this early, however if it can, the northern mid atlantic may join the fray. The  blocking pattern should break down mid month, and there will likely be Grinch storm in the vicinity of Christmas, unlike last season.Temperatures should average out near normal for most of the east by month's end, biased colder early, and milder late. If anything, slightly above average for the mid atlantic, and below average in New England.
 
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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think I'm that far off, so far...

 

December%2BForecast.png
 
The current scandinavian ridge should retrograde towards Greenland for the first couple of weeks of December, some significant snows are likely for much of New England. The PNA may struggle to become established this early, however if it can, the northern mid atlantic may join the fray. The  blocking pattern should break down mid month, and there will likely be Grinch storm in the vicinity of Christmas, unlike last season.Temperatures should average out near normal for most of the east by month's end, biased colder early, and milder late. If anything, slightly above average for the mid atlantic, and below average in New England.
 

Here is January.

The NAO blocking breaks down in time for the holidays, go figure, however around this time the Pacific side grows more supportive, so this mid winter break will not be as prolonged, nor as mild as last season, especially across New England. The month should average anywhere from 1-2 degrees above normal across New England, and 2-3 degrees above normal beneath the 40th parallel. The month of January looks a lot like 2015 and 2005, and we expect a similar evolution. Complete with a monster Archambault event anywhere from January 20th to February 8th, after which the Atlantic couples with the Pacific to induce cross polar flow and set the stage for a memorable February. 
 
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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Nobody really had a SE ridge and AO second half of December. It temporarily became Nina. That will last into early Jan. My guess is that the first week of Jan may still be hostile, but get better after. Perhaps hostile is a strong word...but basically not ideal. 

Well, I did say that blocking would vanish before xmas and there would be intervals of RNA early....close enough.

I don't think its full steam ahead until like 1/20...people are going to get ahead of themselves and drive themselves nuts with blueballz...."bust this" and "bust that"..."winter cancel".

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Just now, 8611Blizz said:

Still a ways away but how do you see things winding down this winter Ray?

I don't see an overwhelming signal either way for March...shouldn't be extreme either way.

 

March%2BForecast.png
 
Blocking may not persist as strongly through March as the model implies, as this portion of the forecast is lower confidence. The PNA looks to wane, and there is very high confidence that the robust negative EPO will remain for the entire winter. Although this is another favorable regime for cold delivery, the source will likely be depleted by this point, and some moderation will be the rule as the airmass grows stale. The month should average  out near normal across the mid atlantic, and 1-2F degrees above average throughout New England.
 

 

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