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December Discussion II


Typhoon Tip

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1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

No need to have any meltdowns right now

Pattern is going as planned

It's not a good sign when folks don't see a post from you about two maybe three snow events in the next week.  

But yeah it's always been about January 1st onward for most posters on here.

And in classic form, the models often rush the pattern changes.  Patience now.

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Teleconnections look good this morning. PNA looks to spike big time. NAO looks like it will tank. AO around neutral, slightly negative. Again the GEFS want to amplify and stick the MJO in phase 6, BUT the EURO below progresses. Is this the battle that will decide January?

EURO

1474647258_ECMF_phase_51m_full(1).gif.5d621f4243f8555ab761a82ce73115a3.gif

GEFS

604117136_ensplume_small(4).gif.907c3e9c00c0ef9a4b07ae4eb362b1d2.gif

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16 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

So torching cutters are as planned? My last snow event was in mid November, well over a month ago.

When a real threat is within 5 days, not 2 and a half weeks away, I’ll be interested 

It is what it is, no sense getting upset about it. I'm sure things will work out eventually but if they don't so what. We can't control the weather.

Winters have mostly been amazing since 2000, far better than anything in the 80s & 90s. 

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1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

It is what it is, no sense getting upset about it. I'm sure things will work out eventually but if they don't so what. We can't control the weather.

Winters have mostly been amazing since 2000, far better than anything in the 80s & 90s. 

I’ll delete my account when those winters come back.

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15 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It is what it is, no sense getting upset about it. I'm sure things will work out eventually but if they don't so what. We can't control the weather.

Winters have mostly been amazing since 2000, far better than anything in the 80s & 90s. 

Agreed. This century I experienced only 4 below average snowfall winters. 1985 through 1999 only experienced 2 above average snowfall winters. Feast or famine!

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21 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its a total crap shot into mid January. Poeple are going to drive themselves over the edge.

 It's looking better in the long range but wow, most of SNE could be looking at mother nature pitching a full December shut out. Not quite a no-hitter but not many base runners. 

 Can you imagine the mood on here if we had not gotten that early November snow? 

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Euro following historical trends.  It may not be an El Niño right now according to the pattern or the SOI but it’s owning most other guidance beyond day 3.  It looks as if it may even get the 26-27 disturbance running out ahead of the cutter correct as well.  It lost it for a day or two on the Op runs and had about 50% ensemble support.  Now it’s coming back and the GFS/UKMET are picking it up too.   

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35 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Euro following historical trends.  It may not be an El Niño right now according to the pattern or the SOI but it’s owning most other guidance beyond day 3.  It looks as if it may even get the 26-27 disturbance running out ahead of the cutter correct as well.  It lost it for a day or two on the Op runs and had about 50% ensemble support.  Now it’s coming back and the GFS/UKMET are picking it up too.   

If only people understood 

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