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December Discussion II


Typhoon Tip

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro has a potent vort but surprised how dry it is. It can’t really get a surface reflection  and inflow Going. Despite that, probably a mid level magic band somewhere in there. 

Shortwave is pretty shallow but right along that vort track and just north of it would likely be a nice little enhanced area. I'd def take the over on euro qpf with that H5 look. I'm sure it will look different next run though. Seems to be changing every run. 

 

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25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Shortwave is pretty shallow but right along that vort track and just north of it would likely be a nice little enhanced area. I'd def take the over on euro qpf with that H5 look. I'm sure it will look different next run though. Seems to be changing every run. 

 

Yeah as long at it stays like that and doesn't get shredded out. Would be a nice festive deal.

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Feel like it will be tough to avoid the cutter after. That ridging in the EPO domain and eventually onto the West Coast will cause the s/w to dive south in the desert southwest.  I guess the good news is that it may be weak and lack a lot of rain for ski country, but I can't really see how that's avoided. I suppose it could be more icy in the interior perhaps.

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Just want to clear the air - I wasn’t pointing to AGW as the REASON/CAUSE for the torch/grinch. I was saying these sort of things should be expected more in the future (as well as 75deg in Feb), and making that adaptation is proving emotionally challenging for me.

 

looks like maybe an inch or 2 for upstate Ny/ interior New England for Xmas eve, which is sweet. The cutter after is modeled on all guidance I can get my hands on, and I trust Scott’s intuition about it.

sorry if my personality on this forum is bothersome. I’m just a boy :violin:

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15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Feel like it will be tough to avoid the cutter after. That ridging in the EPO domain and eventually onto the West Coast will cause the s/w to dive south in the desert southwest.  I guess the good news is that it may be weak and lack a lot of rain for ski country, but I can't really see how that's avoided. I suppose it could be more icy in the interior perhaps.

I want ice and a pressing high 

could a well timed high pressure ice us in interior 

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30 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I want ice and a pressing high 

could a well timed high pressure ice us in interior 

We could def see some good CAD but I think if the high is timed well, it would end up snowier as a front ender. A retreating high could cause some insitu CAD that would probably give more ice in the interior but it would eventually turn to 32.1F rain given the lack of replenishing dew feed. We actually want that system to eject a bit faster so it runs into NE when the high is still over N Maine/Quebec versus sliding east. We don't want this thing sitting the southwest and Rockies forever. 

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5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It's a lot better looking than the Euro that's for sure.

Euro is another toaster bath for all.

The Euro tends to overamp and overcut everything beyond day 5 ever since its upgrade a few years ago.  Don’t forget the EPS majority members Just 4/5 days ago showed more or less a SER on 25-27 which now won’t come close to verifying 

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