December Discussion II

[weathafella]

Lovely eps run-we’re gonna party like it’s 2015 before you know it.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, weathafella said:

Lovely eps run-we’re gonna party like it’s 2015 before you know it.

All those Dec is lost posts the last week or so and melts we had on here. Deep winter right on schedule last week of month .. a few days past the 20th

[weathafella]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

All those Dec is lost posts the last week or so and melts we had on here. Deep winter right on schedule last week of month .. a few days past the 20th

Looks like a possible little snow the 24th but then a nice melting cutter a few days before New Years.   Then we have some fun thereafter.

[CoastalWx]

The pattern looks to be after New Year’s right now. I don’t count a little snow and then the cutter deep winter.

[Damage In Tolland]

That cutter will secondary . EPS shows that happening. Also let’s not forget the 26th

[CoastalWx]

KGW

[ORH_wxman]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

the 2010s have sucked?  The snowfall averages in the 2010s have been outlandishly high Will.  During the 80s though all our winters were at or below average in snowfall totals.

I was speaking of how often we got a white Xmas each decade. That's why I said the 1980s were surprisingly decent despite having horrible winters as a whole. We managed to squeak out quite a few white Christmases. 2010s haven't been as kind. I think over the interior we're near 50% so far or even less south of the pike. This is despite very snowy winters overall. 

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That cutter will secondary . EPS shows that happening. Also let’s not forget the 26th

Fwiw, the Ensmebles last night looked worse than the 12z run yesterday for secondary triple point going south of us. Doesn't mean it won't flip back to more favorable but that one still has a lot of work to do. 

At least Xmas eve is looking better.  

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

KGW

So you’re saying EPS not showing 26th even though it is?

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I was speaking of how often we got a white Xmas each decade. That's why I said the 1980s were surprisingly decent despite having horrible winters as a whole. We managed to squeak out quite a few white Christmases. 2010s haven't been as kind. I think over the interior we're near 50% so far or even less south of the pike. This is despite very snowy winters overall. 

Christmas 1980 may have been the best one, it snowed and it was incredibly cold.  I dont think we've approached that kind of combination since, snowing and temperatures near 0 or even below!

1981-82 also had incredible stretches of snow+cold (mostly in January but also around that historic blizzard in April.)  Jan 1982 was when that plane went down in the frozen Potomac during a noreaster.

Even when it wasn't snowing much in the 80s, the Januarys were usually very cold.

And in Jan 1985, the second Reagan Inauguration was the coldest day I've ever experienced with highs in the single digits.

A surprise heavy snowstorm in Jan 1987 (a rare treat during the 80s) was one of the few times we had an 8 inch event in that decade outside of the two blizzards (April 1982 and February 1983).

 

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

So you’re saying EPS not showing 26th even though it is?

 It’s still real weak And might not be much of a thing.  Guidance has been on and off with a separate thing sort of breaking off from the potential cutter. 

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Severe wind threat for SE MA and Cape and Islands for Friday after 12z.

[weathafella]

Then again 6Z GEFS went back to the triple point under us.  We’re gonna have some active fun which should be quite snowy once the pattern gets established early in January.

[512high]

5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Then again 6Z GEFS went back to the triple point under us.  We’re gonna have some active fun which should be quite snowy once the pattern gets established early in January.

I hope January is a month to remember "snow wise"................

[HoarfrostHubb]

28 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Christmas 1980 may have been the best one, it snowed and it was incredibly cold.  I dont think we've approached that kind of combination since, snowing and temperatures near 0 or even below!

1981-82 also had incredible stretches of snow+cold (mostly in January but also around that historic blizzard in April.)  Jan 1982 was when that plane went down in the frozen Potomac during a noreaster.

Even when it wasn't snowing much in the 80s, the Januarys were usually very cold.

And in Jan 1985, the second Reagan Inauguration was the coldest day I've ever experienced with highs in the single digits.

A surprise heavy snowstorm in Jan 1987 (a rare treat during the 80s) was one of the few times we had an 8 inch event in that decade outside of the two blizzards (April 1982 and February 1983).

 

Christmas 1980 was pretty intense. I remember it well, despite only being 12

[weathafella]

Lol.....Christmas 1980-in Los Angeles age 34 with a 1 month old and 3 year old now 41 and 38.   Where does the time go....

[Damage In Tolland]

Just seems like NAO doing dirty work with the 2 snow events and trying to force secondary out underneath .This screamer tomorrow was really necessary to reshuffle things.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

29 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Severe wind threat for SE MA and Cape and Islands for Friday after 12z.

How’s it look for everyone else?

[STILL N OF PIKE]

29 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Just seems like NAO doing dirty work with the 2 snow events and trying to force secondary out underneath .This screamer tomorrow was really necessary to reshuffle things.

2 more snow events...I count 4

 

[OceanStWx]

 

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

The pattern looks to be after New Year’s right now. I don’t count a little snow and then the cutter deep winter.

Wouldn't be out of character for the weenies (and modeling) to jump the transition. 

If the cold dumps into the Plains we'll have to rely on lucky timing to keep it deep winter, because WAA will slosh our way.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, OceanStWx said:

 

Wouldn't be out of character for the weenies (and modeling) to jump the transition. 

If the cold dumps into the Plains we'll have to rely on lucky timing to keep it deep winter, because WAA will slosh our way.

If we're going to pick the best setup to keep us both very cold and very active...It's usually most favorable to keep if the deepest cold centered like Ohio Valley/eastern lakes ala '93-'94. Though 2014-2015 was slightly east of that and it still worked out. But we saw how close many of the storms were to missing us to the east. In fact, we whiffed on several during that epic stretch too...we just didn't notice as much because we also hit on many. It was basically a new shortwave every 2-3 days. 

Different western setups though when comparing those two years. Much more southwestern troughing in '94...hence the more gradient/overrunning type pattern. 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

 

Wouldn't be out of character for the weenies (and modeling) to jump the transition. 

If the cold dumps into the Plains we'll have to rely on lucky timing to keep it deep winter, because WAA will slosh our way.

Right. I’m just hoping we avoid a total dud through 1/1. There’s some support for something near the 30-31 too, so I feel like we can at least grab a few between now and then. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Right. I’m just hoping we avoid a total dud through 1/1. There’s some support for something near the 30-31 too, so I feel like we can at least grab a few between now and then. 

Maybe 12/31 can be this year's version of 1/3/94...finally get the cold shoved just enough to the east and then we get a wave along the extreme gradient coming up from the southeast. 

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Maybe 12/31 can be this year's version of 1/3/94...finally get the cold shoved just enough to the east and then we get a wave along the extreme gradient coming up from the southeast. 

I’ll take a 12/31/08 too.

[Hoth]

Isn't the NAO supposed to be deeply negative around and after Xmas? Would think that would reduce the cutter risk substantially, but perhaps I'm off base.

[EastonSN+]

I may be incorrect in coupling the two, but wouldn't a SSW event create a NEGATIVE AO? Looks to go sharply positive around the 1st. PNA and NAO look good 

[ORH_wxman]

The tropospheric impact of the SSW would be felt later than 1/1. But we get a more favorable pacific in early January so I would think we're not going to have to wait for the AO to go crazy negative to get good threats. 

 

As for the NAO around and just after Xmas...it's kind of a fraud -NAO. Not a real true block. It is only slightly negative anyway. It is prob like 3rd or 4th on the list of impacts to the 12/27 storm. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

There’s a lag to ssw events down to h5 and below. The temporary -nao the 1000mb charts show has nothing to do with it, i think.

[Baroclinic Zone]

25 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Isn't the NAO supposed to be deeply negative around and after Xmas? Would think that would reduce the cutter risk substantially, but perhaps I'm off base.

You can still get "cutters" in a -NAO regime.  It all depends upon where it is.  East Based/West Based.  And looking at the charts, its basically a neutra NAO.

[Typhoon Tip]

57 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Isn't the NAO supposed to be deeply negative around and after Xmas? Would think that would reduce the cutter risk substantially, but perhaps I'm off base.

Mm maybe...  It was, as of yesterday, drawing up a two week long negative curve, plumbing to some -2.5 SD mid way at the CDC only.  The CPC did not indicate that same variance showing most members and the mean of all members, combined, nearly neutral right out to the end ..some two week's worth.

Both can be valid projectors for the NAO.   So which one does one choose?   ...Naturally, the one that indicates the deeper curve right? heh  

Seriously though, there's that, ...and, it was relatively new as a signal to begin with - the new numbers tend to publish the morning after the nightly computations, which is any moment ..so we'll see if CDC's numbers might have been the beginning of something. I tend to think not though? 

At least ...preliminarily ... because, the CDC is not benefiting from 'continuity and confidence' ... Continuity in this context means a consistent trend ... without it, the bad weather forecaster allows themselves to being led on by the peregrinations of fractals...  ( tongue-in-cheek for excursions imposed in/of/by chaos ).   I mean... we're moving along in over a week of neutral butt-bone NAO; we can either light the torches for the opening winter games ceremonies, or... look at it intelligently and stay the course until a more substantive reason to alter. 

But I'm lecturing and ranting over morning coffee... point being, I wouldn't trust that - for now.  But again, we'll see if the CPC curves at least dent for f sake...