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December Discussion II


Typhoon Tip

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45 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

yes, I lived in Bristol Ct at the time and picked up a quick 8 inches...right on the northern extent of the better snow......forecast up til that morning was 15-20, something didn't phase together I guess and a 24 hr event turned into a 6 hr one

 

still a solid hit and it snowed briefly 3/hr

If I remember correctly....that was the Virga Storm here???   Virga for the whole afternoon and early evening...snow couldn’t bust through here for hours...we lost a ton of  precipitation to that here...thats why we ended up with like 8 or 9 inches, instead of the big amounts. 

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1 minute ago, NorEastermass128 said:

I hope so. The Goofus still looks bleak. But it’s the goofus after all. 

Modeling today other than op Gfs starting to pick up Mjo moving into stage 7-8. Once that started getting picked up, we’ve started to see subtle moves in a faster direction . Started with weeklies last night . Probably kind of a step down week next week and if timed right we get a snower or two 

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2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

You can regenerate precip on a stalled system with spokes of vorticity going around the ULL...the precip just tends to be more localized as already mentioned. We saw this in march 2001 in spots in NH that got around 40 inches. 

The other way is to basically have completely separate waves along a stalled frontal boundary and in that case, the precip shields would remain much more robust...but then you are almost talking about more than one storm even if the snow is nearly continuous. 

Moncton NB managed 63.4 inches from jan 31st to Feb 2nd 1992. Really cool looking evolution.  

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58 minutes ago, Hoth said:

One wonders if the upper bound on one of those extreme systems is a bit higher in the present climate. More available moisture, higher water temp anomalies, etc. What would a repeat of 1888 max out at now?  

Wonder what type of measurement techniques they were using back then, if any? I mean 58" in Saratoga NY is pretty insane if they were just sticking a ruler in at the end and measuring depth. Almost seems impossible--especially for a spot that isnt getting much orographic help.

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6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Modeling today other than op Gfs starting to pick up Mjo moving into stage 7-8. Once that started getting picked up, we’ve started to see subtle moves in a faster direction . Started with weeklies last night . Probably kind of a step down week next week and if timed right we get a snower or two 

Weeklies have it there but week 3 and beyond.  No guidance has MJO in 7/8 next week or the week after.

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2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Weeklies have it there but week 3 and beyond.  No guidance has MJO in 7/8 next week or the week after.

The point was they started sensing the forcing this week . The reason they had delayed things until mid month was they were stalling it in stage 4. Now it’s continuously sped up each cycle 

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

The point was they started sensing the forcing this week . The reason they had delayed things until mid month was they were stalling it in stage 4. Now it’s continuously sped up each cycle 

I don’t think this is fact.  The natural progression brings it back to the left side of the circle barring unforeseen circumstances.

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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Funny...how would he know Worcester beat him so handidly? A telegram arrives in the mail some 10 days later...aunt Hilda laments the death of the crops in waist high drifts...scooter rips the telegram in two pieces and kicks a rooster lol

Two weeks later Dendrite receives word of his kicking the rooster and bans him from the news sheet. 

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2 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

Yeah, there aren't many ways to really get that done. Stall the system and remain in the narrow moisture flux is definitely one. 

But historical tales of widespread 4 ft monster blizzards are most likely exaggerations of our typical blockbusters. The extreme totals happen on a much more localized scale. March 1888 and February 1969 are likely the upper bounds of what a nor'easter can produce on a regional scale before petering out.

Gotta add in a meso-scale component like upslope or lake effect to take those storms into new territory.  Like those events that leave 60" in 4 days once every few years for the mountains.  

But yeah regional scale without added lift from some secondary mechanism that's very difficult to do 36+ with purely synoptic scale lift.

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2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Slant stickers in Lunenburg stop Stole my snow stop Sleighing decidedly poor this spring stop

... .-.. .- -. -     ... - .. -.-. -.- . .-. ...     .. -.     .-.. ..- -. . -. -... ..- .-. --.     ... - --- .--.     ... - --- .-.. .     -- -.--     ... -. --- .--     ... - --- .--.     ... .-.. . .. --. .... .. -. --.     -.. . -.-. .. -.. . -.. .-.. -.--     .--. --- --- .-.     - .... .. ...     ... .--. .-. .. -. --.     ... - --- .--.

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7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I wish that warm front would just blast through here. I really don’t need any extra low level forcing over the CAD cold dome. 18z GFS has low/mid 60s for much of SNE.

Overdone but we will watch as some runs have developed a sts like meso embedded in the huge tropical feed. Tors?

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