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December Discussion II

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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STILL N OF PIKE

STILL N OF PIKE

Posted
Posted
  On 12/24/2018 at 10:42 PM, powderfreak said:

December hasn't been *that* good up here.  I'll have to look but it is likely below normal snowfall, but it was very cold for the first half of the month.  We were just riding on the coat tails of record November snows, followed by refreshing events but nothing huge in December.  The brutal cold departures just continued the theme of deep winter despite no true "storms".   

Having constant snow cover for like 6 solid weeks leading into Christmas, it does put you in a different mindset, like man this winter has been going on for a while.

To me the biggest snowfall gradient was somewhere between northern Mass and like Gene's area in that first round of winter.  Gene having a 30+ inch November compared with 50 miles south was a decent gradient.

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I would say Compare LWM season to Plymouth NH

and i do understand Stowe had a so so December . The cold air just sustained the huge depths at elevation for so early in the season.

 

dude we just had 18 pages for a 35 degree flurry

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
  On 12/24/2018 at 10:45 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

dude we just had 18 pages for a 35 degree flurry

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Haha it's that time of year and it's been that type of start to winter.  This was like a 2001-02 winter type thread.  But when it started there seemed to be a lot more potential.  I mean a widespread 1-3" in the HFD-PVD-BOS area would've gathered a lot more posts and interest than 1-3" that fell in the BTV CWA.

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J.Spin

J.Spin

Posted
Posted
  On 12/24/2018 at 10:42 PM, powderfreak said:

December hasn't been *that* good up here.  I'll have to look but it is likely below normal snowfall, but it was very cold for the first half of the month.  We were just riding on the coat tails of record November snows, followed by refreshing events but nothing huge in December.

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I can give you some quick numbers that pretty much back up your impressions, using my data as a proxy for the local higher elevations since we typically run in synch.

There’s no question about November, it was really strong and put us well ahead on snowfall.  The peak of the surplus, depending on whether you want to look at it in percent or inches, was somewhere in the range of Nov 16th (502.3% of average) to Dec 7th (27.7” ahead of average).

The current season held its record pace (at least in the context of my data set) until Dec 15th at 51.1” of snow.  On Dec 16th, it fell behind ‘07-‘08, which was at 62.5” on that date.  As of today, this season has fallen to 3rd place behind ‘07-‘08 and ‘08-‘09, which were running nearly neck-and-neck on Dec 24th at 72.4” and 74.3” respectively.

Indeed as you surmised, December snowfall has been a bit behind average pace according to my data.  The average December snowfall as of December 24th here is 26.8”, and including the couple of inches so far from today’s event, we’re at 21.6”, so 5.2” behind/80.6% of average for the month.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
  On 12/24/2018 at 11:27 PM, weathafella said:

Bump

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Continuation of previous epic looks in Feb with classic nino pac and stout neg nao. Weeks 3-4 look good this run as well with the transition away from the coupled +pna/-epo. Would imply active wx across the conus and plenty of cold around to work with through the second half of Jan. Overall another good weeklies run. 

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted
  On 12/25/2018 at 1:15 AM, Bob Chill said:

Continuation of previous epic looks in Feb with classic nino pac and stout neg nao. Weeks 3-4 look good this run as well with the transition away from the coupled +pna/-epo. Would imply active wx across the conus and plenty of cold around to work with through the second half of Jan. Overall another good weeklies run. 

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Thank you!  Hopefully they’ll be right!

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
  On 12/25/2018 at 1:16 AM, weathafella said:

Thank you!  Hopefully they’ll be right!

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Yea, this was a particularly good run because weeks 3-7 are all workable in both our regions and each week gets better than the previous. 

If they're even just mostly right it would make the current crap Pac period we're in now the worst period of winter. It can't end soon enough...

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Hoth

Hoth

Posted
Posted
  On 12/25/2018 at 1:21 AM, Bob Chill said:

Yea, this was a particularly good run because weeks 3-7 are all workable in both our regions and each week gets better than the previous. 

If they're even just mostly right it would make the current crap Pac period we're in now the worst period of winter. It can't end soon enough...

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Music to my ears, my good man. Merry Xmas.

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted
  On 12/25/2018 at 1:21 AM, Bob Chill said:

Yea, this was a particularly good run because weeks 3-7 are all workable in both our regions and each week gets better than the previous. 

If they're even just mostly right it would make the current crap Pac period we're in now the worst period of winter. It can't end soon enough...

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Thanks for paying us a visit Bob.  I read you sometimes in your regional thread.  Merry Christmas if you celebrate...Happy New Year otherwise.

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512high

512high

Posted
Posted
  On 12/25/2018 at 3:21 AM, CoastalWx said:

I thought the weeklies were puzzling. They have a decent PNA, but the changes from Thursday were nina like. More SE ridging and cooler Canada. Almost wants to get back to gradient. 

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Oh no, I thought they were good earlier?, well Scott and everyone else Merry Christmas/Happy Holidays to all and your families, 

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Greg

Greg

Posted
Posted
  On 12/25/2018 at 3:21 AM, CoastalWx said:

I thought the weeklies were puzzling. They have a decent PNA, but the changes from Thursday were nina like. More SE ridging and cooler Canada. Almost wants to get back to gradient. 

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You actually want some but not much ridging or you risk the storms down stream sliding east northeast off the coasline instead of northeast off the coastline.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
  On 12/25/2018 at 3:35 AM, Greg said:

You actually want some but not much ridging or you risk the storms down stream sliding east northeast off the coasline instead of northeast off the coastline.

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The whole thing is just weird. Looks like it wants to be nina. No -NAO too on week 3. Week 4 has some. The look itself is pretty good,  but the changes were interesting that’s all. Verbatim it would be good.

Note: I’m not trying to bring weenies down lol.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
  On 12/25/2018 at 3:21 AM, CoastalWx said:

I thought the weeklies were puzzling. They have a decent PNA, but the changes from Thursday were nina like. More SE ridging and cooler Canada. Almost wants to get back to gradient. 

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Bring it. I want winter storm watches up before the winter storm warnings are cancelled (a la 2007-2008).

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