December Discussion II

[Typhoon Tip]

For those of us winter weather enthusiasts ... unfortunately, the news is not good through the end of December - but bear with me ...there's hope!  The factors typically used to formulate a sense of what type of pattern is more than less likely, they are unilaterally hostile to your desires ... However, an immediate leading disclaimer:  that does not mean it will not get cold for a time, or that there can be no drama in the models and/or chances here there for winter-profiled systems. Particularly at our latitude from ORD-BOS and points N ... as the veterans/experienced among us might attest ... even in the worst of times there can be offset anomalies.   What the former means is that if/when offered any such circumstance in the models, one should be leery that for the next two to perhaps three weeks, the correction tendency is sloped against.  

That said, all air, sea, and air-sea coupled indexes are flagging a warmer than normal look when using the GEFs derivatives.

Second disclaimer: there are those that are more EPS reliant - understood.  Despite that organization's for-profit existence and thus (understandable given the enterprise) stingy product availability to non-paying customers, ... I don't feel their product suite is really inherently good enough to abide.  Laziness is really their greatest marketing asset ... If one bothers to become familiar with the GEF's particular pallet of peccadilloes ... accounting for those at any given time, that source can provide just as proficiently.  People don't want to think - that's particularly true as a side in today's e-zombie convenience addled world, but I digress...

Presently:

... the AO is slated to raise positive as we peer out to the end of week-2. 

... the PNA is sloping neutral-negative. 

... the WPO-EPO/NP arc is in the AB phase at least through D10, and although they have at times (primarily in the EPO) tried to go AA (negative) ... the longer termed trend has shown difficulty since the November in getting that to actually happen.  

There are no intervening forces (that I can see...) that offer a way to disrupt the total, WPO-EPO and PNA Pacific circulation, which with reasonable coherence appears to be "stuck" at this point.  From the Indian Ocean up through Asia, torque and wave space arguments don't lend to breaking things down ... which may also be related to why the MJO is strengthening in Phase 5 outlooks.  The MJO ... a negative and/or positive interference factor (not necessarily a primary driver) appears to be positioned in space and time just perfectly to positively interfere with the above general Pacific overview... 

Because of all this ... I feel reasonably confident that the SE ridge should rear up here at some point over these next two weeks.  I think we are seeing that in the dailies in these operational models, ...more so than less in recent cycles, too.  I would almost venture that they are under-done with that ...  If the ridge doesn't take on an exuberant flair (so to speak...) suspect strongly that a more zonal "Chinooky" look should set up S of 55 N at one point or the other through the end of the month.  The potential Clipper to NJ Model system on the 23-24th, notwithstanding, but that may be a plausible offset. 

Things start to get more interesting later on as we age into January

Anatomy of an embryonic Sudden Stratospheric Warming event:

This is very primitive/prelimary just yet ...( courtesy:  http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/ ) ...but the top row, is the 10 hPa level; the bottom ... the 30 hPa.  As we enter the mid range and peer out into the deeper extended range ( from left to right... ) we can clearly see an impressive and rather abrupt onset of intense warming in the upper stratosphere.  As we look along the same time span in the 30's, we see that this warm region lags ... but surely begins to emerge nearing the latter days. 

This is a key suggestion; it argues for downward propagation ...or "downward welling", which is of very high correlation significance for eventual negative Arctic Oscillation. 

Below is another annotation that helps elucidate that correlation (prepared for another era in history...):

What this bottom chart suggests at a deeper level ... is that there is a time lag requirement . I bring particular attention to that because even from well trained Mets out among the electronic archipelago of Internet islands... I'm constantly reading tweets and/or discussions in the past that don't make it abundantly clear that is being taken into consideration.  In every year since 1979 in the parenthetical source above... there are two primary variances in the monitoring history:  one ... random warm nodes that come in and out of existence that do not demonstrate residence and/or propagation behavior, vs those that do.  Those that do are the one's that are, despite the mere near 40 years of sample size, correlated to subsequent -AO.  The lag averages two weeks to three weeks.  

What I find intriguing is that in the absence of a compensatory/offset polar index ... middle latitudes that are thus nakedly exposed to the ENSO forcing ...do tend to uninspired Decembers ...showing tendencies to get more active later in January.  If there is some large causal relationship there ...it would be fascinating... In the meantime, the ENSO statistical suggestion my end up landing on top of a (again...preliminary) SSW --> -AO...  It's almost funny but ...I'd-a almost pegged this February to be the 2015er

[NorEastermass128]

Nice write up Tip!  

We're in despair now, but things should be looking up heading into next month.  It's always darkest before the dawn.

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Nice write up Tip!  

We're in despair now, but things should be looking up heading into next month.  It's always darkest before the dawn.

thanks ..yeah... I have the week off from work so ... finally got around to throwing my hat into the fray... (though I am aware the consensus already).

Like I said, even in down trodden mood times, ...things can sometimes break more favorably - if perhaps unexpectedly of course.  I don't mean it to be a dooms day prediction or anything.

[Damage In Tolland]

Let’s get that Midwest to NYC north clipper the Euro has to verify with a nice 2-4” incher Xmas Eve

[HoarfrostHubb]

[Ginx snewx]

Lol EPS smoked GEFS this month not even close. If you are too cheap to pay forty bucks for 4 months of  EPS data it effects your view 

Rest of post is great 

 

[OceanStWx]

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lol EPS smoked GEFS this month not even close. If you are too cheap to pay forty bucks for 4 months of  EPS data it effects your view 

Rest of post is great 

Yeah, it's not really that close between the two ensemble systems. GEFS can score a win every now and then in the right pattern, but overall it's the EPS.

It doesn't help in real-time, but I'm pretty sure weathermodels.com allows you to look at old runs of the ECMWF/EPS, so you could make a comparison to current pattern based on ensembles run 7 days ago. That may have just been a promotional thing, but I'm pretty sure it's still active.

[SnoSki14]

All these posts will be interesting to look at 3 months from now.

Either this period will be remembered as the panic before prosperity or a cruel foreshadowing into the winter that never was. 

Hypothetically if this winter did end up like 97/98 then it would be the biggest forecast bust on record...unless you're a prophet like raindancewx.

[JBinStoughton]

5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

All these posts will be interesting to look at 3 months from now.

Either this period will be remembered as the panic before prosperity or a cruel foreshadowing into the winter that never was. 

Hypothetically if this winter did end up like 97/98 then it would be the biggest forecast bust on record...unless you're a prophet like raindancewx.

“Never was” in spite of having been progged to really be. That’d be the true insult. We wait. 

[weathafella]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

For those of us winter weather enthusiasts ... unfortunately, the news is not good through the end of December - but bear with me ...there's hope!  The factors typically used to formulate a sense of what type of pattern is more than less likely, they are unilaterally hostile to your desires ... However, an immediate leading disclaimer:  that does not mean it will not get cold for a time, or that there can be no drama in the models and/or chances here there for winter-profiled systems. Particularly at our latitude from ORD-BOS and points N ... as the veterans/experienced among us might attest ... even in the worst of times there can be offset anomalies.   What the former means is that if/when offered any such circumstance in the models, one should be leery that for the next two to perhaps three weeks, the correction tendency is sloped against.  

That said, all air, sea, and air-sea coupled indexes are flagging a warmer than normal look when using the GEFs derivatives.

Second disclaimer: there are those that are more EPS reliant - understood.  Despite that organization's for-profit existence and thus (understandable given the enterprise) stingy product availability to non-paying customers, ... I don't feel their product suite is really inherently good enough to abide.  Laziness is really their greatest marketing asset ... If one bothers to become familiar with the GEF's particular pallet of peccadilloes ... accounting for those at any given time, that source can provide just as proficiently.  People don't want to think - that's particularly true as a side in today's e-zombie convenience addled world, but I digress...

Presently:

... the AO is slated to raise positive as we peer out to the end of week-2. 

... the PNA is sloping neutral-negative. 

... the WPO-EPO/NP arc is in the AB phase at least through D10, and although they have at times (primarily in the EPO) tried to go AA (negative) ... the longer termed trend has shown difficulty since the November in getting that to actually happen.  

There are no intervening forces (that I can see...) that offer a way to disrupt the total, WPO-EPO and PNA Pacific circulation, which with reasonable coherence appears to be "stuck" at this point.  From the Indian Ocean up through Asia, torque and wave space arguments don't lend to breaking things down ... which may also be related to why the MJO is strengthening in Phase 5 outlooks.  The MJO ... a negative and/or positive interference factor (not necessarily a primary driver) appears to be positioned in space and time just perfectly to positively interfere with the above general Pacific overview... 

Because of all this ... I feel reasonably confident that the SE ridge should rear up here at some point over these next two weeks.  I think we are seeing that in the dailies in these operational models, ...more so than less in recent cycles, too.  I would almost venture that they are under-done with that ...  If the ridge doesn't take on an exuberant flair (so to speak...) suspect strongly that a more zonal "Chinooky" look should set up S of 55 N at one point or the other through the end of the month.  The potential Clipper to NJ Model system on the 23-24th, notwithstanding, but that may be a plausible offset. 

Things start to get more interesting later on as we age into January

Anatomy of an embryonic Sudden Stratospheric Warming event:

This is very primitive/prelimary just yet ...( courtesy:  http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/ ) ...but the top row, is the 10 hPa level; the bottom ... the 30 hPa.  As we enter the mid range and peer out into the deeper extended range ( from left to right... ) we can clearly see an impressive and rather abrupt onset of intense warming in the upper stratosphere.  As we look along the same time span in the 30's, we see that this warm region lags ... but surely begins to emerge nearing the latter days. 

This is a key suggestion; it argues for downward propagation ...or "downward welling", which is of very high correlation significance for eventual negative Arctic Oscillation. 

Below is another annotation that helps elucidate that correlation (prepared for another era in history...):

What this bottom chart suggests at a deeper level ... is that there is a time lag requirement . I bring particular attention to that because even from well trained Mets out among the electronic archipelago of Internet islands... I'm constantly reading tweets and/or discussions in the past that don't make it abundantly clear that is being taken into consideration.  In every year since 1979 in the parenthetical source above... there are two primary variances in the monitoring history:  one ... random warm nodes that come in and out of existence that do not demonstrate residence and/or propagation behavior, vs those that do.  Those that do are the one's that are, despite the mere near 40 years of sample size, correlated to subsequent -AO.  The lag averages two weeks to three weeks.  

What I find intriguing is that in the absence of a compensatory/offset polar index ... middle latitudes that are thus nakedly exposed to the ENSO forcing ...do tend to uninspired Decembers ...showing tendencies to get more active later in January.  If there is some large causal relationship there ...it would be fascinating... In the meantime, the ENSO statistical suggestion my end up landing on top of a (again...preliminary) SSW --> -AO...  It's almost funny but ...I'd-a almost pegged this February to be the 2015er

Great write up John.  One thing I’d like to discuss when we go eps vs GEFS is this conclusion that I have:  inherently a mean of 51 is far more stable vs a mean of 1/3 that amount.

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Great write up John.  One thing I’d like to discuss when we go eps vs GEFS is this conclusion that I have:  inherently a mean of 51 is far more stable vs a mean of 1/3 that amount.

There is truth to that, there is also the issue of how the ensembles are generated. The GEFS is known to be under-dispersive. The idea of a good ensemble is that you capture all of the possible solutions, or at least the vast majority of them. The GEFS doesn't tweak each member enough, therefore doesn't capture a good range of solutions. That's why the GEFS tends to follow the GFS so closely. 

The EPS is not as dispersive as it could be (solutions still fall outside the EPS range with some regularity), but it's better than the GEFS.

[Typhoon Tip]

29 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Yeah, it's not really that close between the two ensemble systems. GEFS can score a win every now and then in the right pattern, but overall it's the EPS.

It doesn't help in real-time, but I'm pretty sure weathermodels.com allows you to look at old runs of the ECMWF/EPS, so you could make a comparison to current pattern based on ensembles run 7 days ago. That may have just been a promotional thing, but I'm pretty sure it's still active.

Well..  just about every pattern we've been through in the past five some odd years actually bore resemblance to the type of visualization I had from just using the GEFs... Sometimes, not - sure.. .but, like I said, you have to know the GEFs bias to use it.  I'm preeety sure despite my efforts to predict Steve's reply and nip it in the bud, it fails ahahahaha.  J/k Steve...

Yeah, no I don't argue the EPS may be 'better' ... my point was, the GEFs are serviceable.  And right now, accounted for stuff ... it doesn't change things.  We'll see.. Call 'em how I see 'em, while fending off subjective antithetic agenda like the rest of us

[Typhoon Tip]

13 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Great write up John.  One thing I’d like to discuss when we go eps vs GEFS is this conclusion that I have:  inherently a mean of 51 is far more stable vs a mean of 1/3 that amount.

Thanks Jerry

Perhaps, re the latter?  I really don't mean to 'compare' the two ensemble systems.  to re-iterate, the point I was really after is that the GEFs are okay if one knows how to work with them. 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

Know what would actually be interesting ... is if the SE ridge confirms but idiosyncratic D. Straight gunk helps keep cold locked and lurking ... midriff Lakes to NE.  Ice?  

 

[Greg]

12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Thanks Jerry

Perhaps, re the latter?  I really don't mean to 'compare' the two ensemble systems.  to re-iterate, the point I was really after is that the GEFs are okay if one knows how to work with them. 

 

Excellent write-up Tip.  As I have said many times on this board, understanding the pros and cons (Biases) of the models and pattern recognition is where it's at. 

[dendrite]

45 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Yeah, it's not really that close between the two ensemble systems. GEFS can score a win every now and then in the right pattern, but overall it's the EPS.

It doesn't help in real-time, but I'm pretty sure weathermodels.com allows you to look at old runs of the ECMWF/EPS, so you could make a comparison to current pattern based on ensembles run 7 days ago. That may have just been a promotional thing, but I'm pretty sure it's still active.

Yup...still up. Link for Tip for future reference.

https://weathermodels.com/index.php?r=site%2Fpreview&mode=animator&set=14-km EPS Global&area=Northern Hemisphere&param=500 hPa Height Anom&offset=5

[MJO812]

Xmas looks good for the northeast

 

[DavisStraight]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

All these posts will be interesting to look at 3 months from now.

Either this period will be remembered as the panic before prosperity or a cruel foreshadowing into the winter that never was. 

Hypothetically if this winter did end up like 97/98 then it would be the biggest forecast bust on record...unless you're a prophet like raindancewx.

Theres panic every year. There was panic before the 2015 blitz.

[Hoth]

1 minute ago, DavisStraight said:

Theres panic every year. There was panic before the 2015 blitz.

Yeah, we were talking futility records in here like a week before the blizzard. Same thing going into Feb '13. DIT was so shook in the latter case he was tossing the models showing the blizzard as voodoo. This winter has more of a '10-'11 vibe in my mind, although I think February should be better this year.

[donsutherland1]

Select year-to-date precipitation and 2018’s rank among the wettest years:

Ashburnham, MA: 62.24” (4)
Blue Hill, MA: 64.44” (5)
Boston: 51.93” (15)
Bridgeport: 56.30” (6)
Brockton, MA: 62.85” (4)
Concord: 51.20” (6)
Danbury: 58.33” (13)
Franklin, MA: 66.46” (2)
Hartford: 59.18” (7)
Hyannis: 55.21” (5)
Manchester: 50.21” (10)
Milton, MA: 64.44” (5)
Nashua (2 NNW), NH: 54.92” (7)
Norfolk (2 SW), CT: 63.84” (8)
Portland: 50.51” (28)
Providence: 60.32” (3)
Rochester, MA: 69.21” (2)
Storrs, CT: 62.46” (6)
Woonsocket, RI: 65.90” (1)
Worcester: 59.62” (5)
Worthington, MA: 68.47” (4)

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

18 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Theres panic every year. There was panic before the 2015 blitz.

There's (haha) a tendency for a type of ... codependency on weather and climate.  I mean, it's a not a disparaging sentiment to coin that turn of phrase, considering that from archeologists to anthropologist and back ... it is abundantly clear that a substantial amount of human evolution, from cultures to the physical make-up of the beings that gave rise to those cultures... are all heavily influenced if not guided by climate - mind you ... "climate" in this context is more than average highs and lows... but deals with dry, wet, cold, hot, sun angle, tides... and the interaction of these with land under foot and the seas.  More like pan-systemic - 

In any case, in the smaller dimension of single life times ... it is entirely intuitively sound that individuals ... perhaps because of all that, "instinctively" place a certain sort of aura of necessity in the type of climate they are experiencing.   We know this to be true another way, S.A.D. - ...the lengthening dimming oblique sun and shorter days often makes people depressed.  I wonder if Inuit natives experience solar attributed S.A.D.  There's an interesting thought. 

So in here... the flavor of all that is just winter storms and blue tinted dawns...  the crunch and squeal of snow in syrupy cold.  I even like long duration mix events... where the air always smells like wood smoke mixed with latent heat of accretion ... err, so long as I don't lose power. 

Anyway, none of that is intrinsically guided by rationalism.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

We’re punting into New Year’s Day and I Really really enjoy a flexing SE ridge. 

We better not be hoping for a splitting polar vortex to turn the tide for us lmao 

snowfall wise what are ORH’s worst December’s. I kno Boston has tons

[OceanStWx]

5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

We’re punting into New Year’s Day and I Really really enjoy a flexing SE ridge. 

We better not be hoping for a splitting polar vortex to turn the tide for us lmao 

snowfall wise what are ORH’s worst December’s. I kno Boston has tons

2011 was 0.3"

1943: 0.5"

1973: 0.9"

2014 (): 1.5"

[weathafella]

1943 was because of the war.  

[CoastalWx]

Nice disco John.  I notes the stratosphere the other day. I do wonder if we can constructively manifest itself down like we did last year. Also, we are seeing a standing wave develop near 135 E as a result of easterlies at 850. That's more Nina vs Nino. One think this should go away?

[Baroclinic Zone]

3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

2011 was 0.3"

1943: 0.5"

1973: 0.9"

2014 (): 1.5"

Some people really have a hardon for snow.  I'll take the 50s from here till April.

[CoastalWx]

17 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Select year-to-date precipitation and 2018’s rank among the wettest years:

Ashburnham, MA: 62.24” (4)
Blue Hill, MA: 64.44” (5)
Boston: 51.93” (15)
Bridgeport: 56.30” (6)
Brockton, MA: 62.85” (4)
Concord: 51.20” (6)
Danbury: 58.33” (13)
Franklin, MA: 66.46” (2)
Hartford: 59.18” (7)
Hyannis: 55.21” (5)
Manchester: 50.21” (10)
Milton, MA: 64.44” (5)
Nashua (2 NNW), NH: 54.92” (7)
Norfolk (2 SW), CT: 63.84” (8)
Portland: 50.51” (28)
Providence: 60.32” (3)
Rochester, MA: 69.21” (2)
Storrs, CT: 62.46” (6)
Woonsocket, RI: 65.90” (1)
Worcester: 59.62” (5)
Worthington, MA: 68.47” (4)

 

 

I have noted this multiple times, but KBOS really stands out low on the precip front. Almost every year. I don't see that as coincidence, but I'm not sure what it could be other than issues with instrumentation.  I would need to see other sites, but you have some samples not far from the city.

[dendrite]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I have noted this multiple times, but KBOS really stands out low on the precip front. Almost every year. I don't see that as coincidence, but I'm not sure what it could be other than issues with instrumentation.  I would need to see other sites, but you have some samples not far from the city.

Longer period of record?

[Damage In Tolland]

My God Pickles just had a complete meltdown today . Post after post .. With a snow event modeled Xmas Eve and several possible events in the days leading up to NY.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Longer period of record?

No I mean overall precip received. Year after year. Obviously there are going to be some differences and I can except that....but year after year it’s the same thing. Probably no coincidence the coops are higher with the stratus gauges.