midatlanticweather Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 This looks a little different from yesterday's Happy Hour! I do see the CAD set up - something frozen is better than none for some! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 This looks a little different from yesterday's Happy Hour! I do see the CAD set up - something frozen is better than none for some! Different storm bro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 10 minutes ago, Ji said: 31 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: This looks a little different from yesterday's Happy Hour! I do see the CAD set up - something frozen is better than none for some! Different storm bro Here's our happy New Year rain storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 1 hour ago, Ji said: 1 hour ago, midatlanticweather said: This looks a little different from yesterday's Happy Hour! I do see the CAD set up - something frozen is better than none for some! Different storm bro 50 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Here's our happy New Year rain storm. They both suck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 It already looks like the pattern change is starting to show delay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 3 hours ago, Snow88 said: Quite possible but low chance Why are you here? There's an entire forum for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: It already looks like the pattern change is starting to show delay You knew that would happen. Always add a week to whatever the models show 2 weeks oiut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 You knew that would happen. Always add a week to whatever the models show 2 weeks oiut. Yep. Exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 In years to come it will be hard to do +PNA December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 Great info here from John On the Polar Vortex: What is hype, what isn’t, and how it may affect us click this for the just released report https://www.nymetroweather.com/2018/12/18/on-the-polar-vortex-what-is-hype-what-isnt-and-how-it-may-affect-us/#toggle-id-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 5 minutes ago, Ji said: 5 minutes ago, BristowWx said: You knew that would happen. Always add a week to whatever the models show 2 weeks oiut. Yep. Exactly Totally unscientific but look at the FV3 at 384. Op run sure but the 540 line is almost entirely absent from the lower 48 except for northern Maine. That tells me we are still several weeks from a solid pattern change. 15th might be correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 Another interesting note to add, as Matt mentions, this event is happening when the SPV is normally at its peak. IMO that in itself may have implications for later Feb, and even March, dependent on the PV recovery, and even after that the PV may have a hard time gaining structure and reorganizing. Speculation at this point, but will be interesting to see what happens during the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 Wait the models were different today than yesterday? Stunning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 Just now, leesburg 04 said: Wait the models were different today than yesterday? Stunning Uh oh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
motsco Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 imagine that - models predicting snow using the rainfall amounts we had this year. - boarding on it being cold. but no way the models can figure out dry cold - so if we get super lucky and temps hovers around 30 deg and high humidity we should be good? but isn’t that to dry? or reverse... lock me back in the panice room cause i’m not very smart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 6 minutes ago, motsco said: imagine that - models predicting snow using the rainfall amounts we had this year. - boarding on it being cold. but no way the models can figure out dry cold - so if we get super lucky and temps hovers around 30 deg and high humidity we should be good? but isn’t that to dry? or reverse... lock me back in the panice room cause i’m not very smart. Thanks, Chuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 9 minutes ago, motsco said: imagine that - models predicting snow using the rainfall amounts we had this year. - boarding on it being cold. but no way the models can figure out dry cold - so if we get super lucky and temps hovers around 30 deg and high humidity we should be good? but isn’t that to dry? or reverse... lock me back in the panice room cause i’m not very smart. We need 29 degrees and 82% humidity. Anything else and its rain. Oh, and DPs of 75 would help with the moisture too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 3 hours ago, stormtracker said: Why are you here? There's an entire forum for you. Because I love you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 32 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Because I love you I don’t think the feelings are mutual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 Call me crazy, but...I still have not shut the door on a Christmas clipper surprise or something! Enough little "dots" (unscientific term, lol) on the model runs to keep me intrigued...Seems like cranky alluded to that little bit of energy being a little unpredictable from this range (if I am interpreting his earlier blog entry correctly). Ya never know...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 Uh...Seems the EURO hasn't given up on the possibility of a little something passing through in the vicinity of Christmas...lol (albeit this panel is technically from 0z on the 26th, but...close!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 Overnight GEFS snowfall mean for 10+ day saw a nice increase. 2 1/2 through the cities (DC/Balt) with 4 1/2" in the farther NW suburbs. Some pretty nice solutions within the ensemble mix that would make many people happy. Except for Ji of course. EPS is no where near as gung ho as the GEFS with an inch through the cities and 1 1/2 in the NW suburbs. The control run does have 2 1/2 through most of the region with pockets of higher amounts. Not what I would call a great look on the pattern 10+ on either model but it is serviceable especially considering climo is a little more forgiving temp wise as we head into the new year. Seeing blocking showing up over Greenland is a plus as it could potential buckle the flow in the Eastern US through that stretch. As far as distinct storms/threats? Far too early to even hazard as guess with the active NS/SS and the SW trough potentially spitting out energy as well. Probably won't have a good idea of the potential until we are sitting inside 7 days. But at least this is something to watch until hopefully our killer pattern shifts into place in a few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 5 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: Call me crazy, but...I still have not shut the door on a Christmas clipper surprise or something! Enough little "dots" (unscientific term, lol) on the model runs to keep me intrigued...Seems like cranky alluded to that little bit of energy being a little unpredictable from this range (if I am interpreting his earlier blog entry correctly). Ya never know...lol Ok. you are crazy...but in a good way. I thought the FV3 was interesting for that time as well. If I see one flake of snow on either Xmas Eve or Day I am counting it as a white Xmas. I'll be plow housed anyway so what does it matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 No one saw the Euro in regards to some snow for the 26th for this subforum? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 The @Maestrobjwa Xmas miracle event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 15 minutes ago, Scraff said: The @Maestrobjwa Xmas miracle event. WOW.. I would be willing to punt the remainder of Dec for that scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 44 minutes ago, Snow88 said: No one saw the Euro in regards to some snow for the 26th for this subforum? go away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 22 minutes ago, BristowWx said: WOW.. I would be willing to punt the remainder of Dec for that scenario. Bristow, what do you think. Can we eke out 3 inches in western PW county with an over performer? I'd like to break in my new toy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 6 minutes ago, mappy said: go away Why do Mid Atlantic people hate others coming into your subforum but other subforums don't care? Weird people Anyway take care everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Why do Mid Atlantic people hate others coming into your subforum but other subforums don't care? Weird people Anyway take care everyone It probably depends on who it is! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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