December/January Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Wonderdog]

1 hour ago, Fozz said:

Honestly I think 12-16" of snow through the end of January would be pretty good. A lot of great winters had less than that. February is often our best month, so let's hope it gets even better by then.

I agree. 12-16 inches of snow in one month would probably satisfy even Bristow.

[CAPE]

9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

12z gefs looking a lot like week 3 of last nights weeklies.... Cautiously optimistic. If the week 4+ pattern starts showing I'm going full weenie. 

Sure does look like it. Would be awesome if the pattern evolves to where we have a legit shot at something by the end of the first week in Jan. The look on the weeklies for around that time was doable, but not ideal yet.

[CAPE]

7 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Can we ban the words “daughter vortices”. I have two of them. And damn it if they don’t make my head spin on a constant basis. Let’s go cousin vortices. 

I normally just say 'vortices', but someone mentioned the daughter thing this morning, and I figured I would roll with it. I actually love it, and plan to wear it the F out. Better get used to it!

[pasnownut]

20 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

12z gefs looking a lot like week 3 of last nights weeklies.... Cautiously optimistic. If the week 4+ pattern starts showing I'm going full weenie. 

Looking better by the day. Cautious optimism.....

Tug that NAO a little west, sharpen that trough and yeah, it may be a weenie fest. Not a bad look at all though.  

[pasnownut]

17 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Can we ban the words “daughter vortices”. I have two of them. And damn it if they don’t make my head spin on a constant basis. Let’s go cousin vortices. 

Yeah when I read that this morning I was wondering what the response would be. 

[psuhoffman]

27 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

12z gefs looking a lot like week 3 of last nights weeklies.... Cautiously optimistic. If the week 4+ pattern starts showing I'm going full weenie. 

From there it is almost inevitable...you can see how the features up top are going to retrograde based on the seasonal progression this year.

[poolz1]

Daughter vortices occur in our house on a daily basis....cold, dont know where they will end up and what looks good now can turn to sh*t in a heartbeat.  

[poolz1]

EPS not quite as good of a look on the immediate east coast at the end of the run as 0z....but, imo, the look is better over the N Hem.  It has that look of getting ready to snap into a very workable pattern...maybe better.  Very reminiscent of the Scan ridge retro from early this season but with a Pac that is ready to help out. 

[CAPE]

On the surface, the 12z EPS looks a bit milder heading into early Jan, but a closer look reveals that our source region is colder- the Aleutian low is in good position, and like the GEFS, it appears help is on the way in the NA, with a retrograding east based block.

[CAPE]

I am just gonna change my display name to- Ninja'd.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

576 ridge on 12z Euro

[WxUSAF]

No one noted that euro has two light events around Xmas that are close for the M/D like crew. Euro also splits the strat vortex around D10 like the GFs.

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

No one noted that euro has two light events around Xmas that are close for the M/D like crew. Euro also splits the strat vortex around D10 like the GFs.

Yes it does- into multiple daughter vortices.

[midatlanticweather]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

No one noted that euro has two light events around Xmas that are close for the M/D like crew. Euro also splits the strat vortex around D10 like the GFs.

Tony Pann will be all over it! LOL!!

 

[Ji]

On the surface, the 12z EPS looks a bit milder heading into early Jan, but a closer look reveals that our source region is colder- the Aleutian low is in good position, and like the GEFS, it appears help is on the way in the NA, with a retrograding east based block.

We need a threat. I've run out of patience. The eps is agonizingly slow in showing a better pattern

[WxUSAF]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

32 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

On the surface, the 12z EPS looks a bit milder heading into early Jan, but a closer look reveals that our source region is colder- the Aleutian low is in good position, and like the GEFS, it appears help is on the way in the NA, with a retrograding east based block.

We need a threat. I've run out of patience. The eps is agonizingly slow in showing a better pattern

Saw chatter that Eps is into the NYE threat window?

[Scraff]

12 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yes it does- into multiple daughter vortices.

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Saw chatter that Eps is into the NYE threat window?

the EPS did double snow in our area from last nights run

 

[RobertRath]

Any chance the 27/28 ish storm doesn’t cut? 

[Ji]

Just now, RobertRath said:

Any chance the 27/28 ish storm doesn’t cut? 

no

[Bob Chill]

25 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Saw chatter that Eps is into the NYE threat window?

It's there. Not like in your face it gon sno kind of stuff but enough to be interested 

[frd]

Good post by Dr Amy Butler about where impacts might be felt from the start event. It is beneficial to make folks understand we simply do not know yet.  

@psuhoffman Maybe this rings a bell psu, as I read your post about when you were attempting to explain to someone a couple weeks ago about the Modaki El Nino I believe. 

Becky is out there making sure we know the facts, hey, I think we all know that the impacts from splits, displacements and warmings are hard to pin down.  But, it is uncanny to say the least how she magically appears to be weather police.  

to add some substance here 

 

 

 

[frd]

Great link for my research on the topic of :

SSWC: Sudden Stratospheric Warming Compendium data set

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/csd/groups/csd8/sswcompendium/

and this 

Table of major mid-winter SSWs in reanalyses products

The date of the major warming is calculated for each reanalysis product using daily-mean zonal winds at 60N and 10 hPa, where the winds must return to westerly for 20 consecutive days between events, and for at least 10 days prior to April 30, following Charlton and Polvani (2007).

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/csd/groups/csd8/sswcompendium/majorevents.html

 

[dallen7908]

Climate Prediction Center Week 3-4 Outlook (Dec 29 - Jan 11) calls for above normal 500 hPa heights, temperatures (60+% chance), and precipitation (50-55% chance).  Next Friday's guidance will get us past January 15th, the date when some believe a back-loaded winter begins.  

"Dynamical model guidance from the various models is broadly consistent, depicting a trough over the Aleutian Islands into the North Pacific. Dynamical model ensembles from the CFS and ECMWF for Week 3-4 depict near or below normal 500-hPa height anomalies over Alaska and the U.S. West coast, while above normal 500-hPa height anomalies are forecast over much of the remainder of the forecast domain. The CFS, ECMWF, and JMA indicates above-normal 500-hPa heights over Hawaii. 

The Week 3-4 temperature outlook indicates increased probabilities of above-normal temperatures over southeastern Alaska, along with the northern and eastern half of the CONUS, with the highest probabilities across the Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valleys, and the Middle Atlantic area, supported by dynamical model forecasts. Below-normal temperatures are most likely for southeastern New Mexico and parts of the Southern Plains, consistent with the SubX guidance. 

The Week 3-4 precipitation outlook indicates increased probabilities of above-median precipitation for much of the East Coast, the Gulf Coast region, the southeastern Alaska, and the Alaska Panhandle, consistent with the SubX guidance." 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/

[MJO812]

37 minutes ago, RobertRath said:

Any chance the 27/28 ish storm doesn’t cut? 

Quite possible but low chance

[CAPE]

6 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Quite possible but low chance

Thanks for stopping by and offering this insightful contribution. Always a treat.

 

[Ji]

Climate Prediction Center Week 3-4 Outlook (Dec 29 - Jan 11) calls for above normal 500 hPa heights, temperatures (60+% chance), and precipitation (50-55% chance).  Next Friday's guidance will get us past January 15th, the date when some believe a back-loaded winter begins.  
"Dynamical model guidance from the various models is broadly consistent, depicting a trough over the Aleutian Islands into the North Pacific. Dynamical model ensembles from the CFS and ECMWF for Week 3-4 depict near or below normal 500-hPa height anomalies over Alaska and the U.S. West coast, while above normal 500-hPa height anomalies are forecast over much of the remainder of the forecast domain. The CFS, ECMWF, and JMA indicates above-normal 500-hPa heights over Hawaii. 

The Week 3-4 temperature outlook indicates increased probabilities of above-normal temperatures over southeastern Alaska, along with the northern and eastern half of the CONUS, with the highest probabilities across the Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valleys, and the Middle Atlantic area, supported by dynamical model forecasts. Below-normal temperatures are most likely for southeastern New Mexico and parts of the Southern Plains, consistent with the SubX guidance. 

The Week 3-4 precipitation outlook indicates increased probabilities of above-median precipitation for much of the East Coast, the Gulf Coast region, the southeastern Alaska, and the Alaska Panhandle, consistent with the SubX guidance." 
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/

That's no good.

[Ji]

Winters back as we know it

[Bob Chill]

This is actually a pretty strong signal for the long lead time. Seeing the timing clustered like this indicates it's not just random shotgun stuff. Personally, I think Dec is toast and it will take longer than models are showing before things improve but seeing ens output like this gives us hope. Temps are pretty cold for long lead as well so the eps must have a decent cluster of solutions that flips to cold continental air and gets rid of the pac puke. 

[Maestrobjwa]

26 minutes ago, Ji said:

Winters back as we know it

Well, at least that's on a Sunday and not a Friday, lolol