Cobalt Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 14 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Extrapolating the 00z NAM, it looks like it's coming north too. How does February look on the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Icon with a monster storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Major changes for the GFS even at 78 hrs...still likely another rainstorm but goodness that’s a big change at that lead time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ji said: Icon with a monster storm A 971 over NYC on the ICON. All you would have to do is speed up the northern stream (with the cold) a little faster and we flip to snow before it pulls away to the NE. Definitely worth keeping an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 GFS is kind of (meh, maybe not) close. As others have said, wild run-to-run swings. Flipping between the last couple runs at 102... geez. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 GFS is kind of (meh, maybe not) close. As others have said, wild run-to-run swings. Flipping between the last couple runs at 102... geez. Its become an unusable model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Who/what organization puts out the icon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Just now, cbmclean said: Who/what organization puts out the icon? The germans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Verbatim the GFS would be a rates and elevations dependent storm. Cold air coming in switching rain to snow. Love the stall. Maybe later runs will phase northern stream even for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 850's below 0 n+w of dc through out but surface is torching. Upper 30's to around 40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 2 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Verbatim the GFS would be a rates and elevations dependent storm. Cold air coming in switching rain to snow. Love the stall. Maybe later runs will phase northern stream? The GFS isn't far away from a monster. Closed 500mb Low over the Dakota's. Give us a negative NAO Europe lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 10 minutes ago, Ji said: 14 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: GFS is kind of (meh, maybe not) close. As others have said, wild run-to-run swings. Flipping between the last couple runs at 102... geez. Its become an unusable model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: My opinion...with a 990s low se of us in January we would see wet fatties Agree. Great track. Cmc has a track west of us like the Euro did. Hard to have much faith in the GFS details being correct with as much flip flopping as it's done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 17 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: This panel is pretty freaking nice on the Icon Freaking nice for no snow within 100 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 FV3 has the storm... a bit earlier than the other models... and its rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Just now, losetoa6 said: Honestly...just looking at the vort pass and overall h5 . Being 5 days+ out the surface and Thermals will be lagging. Your right ..the model is showing rain verbatim but I'm suggesting it would be cooler if it verifies like this . And a few tweaks it could be a hit When we're talking about sub 980 bombs over the northeast we should at least keep an eye on it. Probably not our storm for accumulating snow but could see some cool dynamics especially for areas with elevation. Need to keep an eye on the Euro tonight. It's the one that all the other model's trended to tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 FV3 has the storm... a bit earlier than the other models... and its rainRain now...it will be heavy snow in 36 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Time for a new thread...we need it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 FV3 has the storm... a bit earlier than the other models... and its rainEarlier the better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 looking forward to the 00z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Tonights Euro for the Friday storm equals enjoyable rain for all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 500mb 498dm +PNA on the 00z Euro.. pretty exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckyamaha Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Am i seeing this correctly with a Three PV split at end of the GFS run by next Sunday. If this doesnt save the N. Hemi then nothing will especially our area. It has to count for something besides just the MJO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Have seen enough on the overnight runs to keep me somewhat interested in the Jan 3rd threat. Still very much in the air how this system and the 500's will evolve though as both models go about it in their own way. I am sure most have seen the GEFS which leaves energy behind at 500's giving us a strongly positive tilted trough with a weak shortwave running through the region. The 500's have improved somewhat as they allow the low and moisture to progress farther north then the more suppressed solutions we were seeing on early runs. The one positive with going this route is we don't see the positive height builds and a stronger push of warm air northward as the system runs to our south. As depicted now we are talking an extremely marginal setup though as there is just not much cold to work with initially and no mechanism to really pull in or create cold. Unless the GFS is off a good deal on the temps this is probably a fail for the cities. Even think the favored areas N and W of the cities would struggle greatly to even see a little bit of snow. But we have seen improvements so you never know. EPS on the other hand has moved to a more amplified trough and we are seeing a closed low. The negative with this evolution is that we are seeing a stronger push north of warm temps that is eroding what little cold we initially had. That said this evolution is probably more favorable for our snowfall chances when all is said and done. What this evolution does is gives us the ability to possibly bring in/create the cold needed before the moisture departs (flip to snow). Below we see the 850's. What we have is a pocket of colder air in the lower Mississippi Valley moving northeastward. Though not overly cold they are sufficient and there is even colder air above heading up to 700 mb's. Now you may wonder how this helps us if the system is already moving through our region. Well depending on the trough configuration and the upper closed low running behind the surface low we can quite often see the upper levels influencing the surface where it can slow down, stall or even retrograde a low. And we are seeing this occur to a certain degree at this point. Now the trough (above) has a positive tilt which mitigates this influence somewhat so we are still seeing the low escape before the upper levels can catch up to it. BUT... get that trough to at least a neutral tilt, even better a negative tilt, and chances are decent that we see the upper levels catch up to the surface somewhere in our region for a possible capture. What we then would see is the surface to 500's attempting to stack and the low intensifying. With the cold now overhead all we need are the rates to draw this cold down and with an intensifying low chances are good we would see that. Now I am not sure how many realize it but the op run was very close. Great pass with the 500s to our south with the closed low just opening up at that point. The problem we had was that the trough stayed positively tilted just a touch too long so we didn't see the 500s catch up with the surface until just to our NE off the Jersey coast where the low begins to bomb. Trough goes negative tilt just a touch quicker and that low is bombing and stalling somewhat over our general region. Then we are talking rain flipping over to a potentially heavy wet snow. Now if I had to rate which evolution I prefer (GFS vs. Euro) I would take the Euro hands down. Think the odds are better with potentially much more upside then the GFS. That said, 5 days away and much can change so it will be interesting to follow. eta: Nothing earth shattering but we did see a bump up on the EPS snowfall means for this time. 1/2' through the cities and 1" in the NW burbs. Ens members showing snow has also increased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 And just after typing the above post I look at the 06Z GFS run and it has made a very strong move towards the Euro. Gets some snow into the region but it is oh so close to something bigger. Trough is just a touch to slow going negative tilt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 5 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: And just after typing the above post I look at the 06Z GFS run and it has made a very strong move towards the Euro. Gets some snow into the region but it is oh so close to something bigger. Trough is just a touch to slow going negative tilt. Holding out hope but we've seen similar looks at 5 days fizzle quite a few times in the past 5 weeks so maybe *maybe* this will change and will be part 1 of the step up towards mid January. Any change in the trends/recent patterns would be a plus. Keeping hope alive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Holding out hope but we've seen similar looks at 5 days fizzle quite a few times in the past 5 weeks so maybe *maybe* this will change and will be part 1 of the step up towards mid January. Any change in the trends/recent patterns would be a plus. Keeping hope alive! With the east based -NAO and the 50/50 in place this more amplified solution makes more sense. Doesn't mean it's right, just that it makes more sense. Think if we are going to score here we need this evolution. Think the weak GFS solution is doomed to be a fail no matter how it goes about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Can we please close this thread and pin the other? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 19 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: And just after typing the above post I look at the 06Z GFS run and it has made a very strong move towards the Euro. Gets some snow into the region but it is oh so close to something bigger. Trough is just a touch to slow going If that storm were to take southeasterly track and then move up the coast wouldn't that mitigate all of our problems and get us into a more northerly wind direction thus possibly bringing in colder air? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 3 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: If that storm were to take southeasterly track and then move up the coast wouldn't that mitigate all of our problems and get us into a more northerly wind direction thus possibly bringing in colder air? Maybe, especially the northern tier. Temps look to be so marginal at this time it is hard to say one way or the other. But at 5 days so who knows. Couldn't hurt though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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