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December/January Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr

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2 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

Verbatim the GFS would be a rates and elevations dependent storm. Cold air coming in switching rain to snow. Love the stall. Maybe later runs will phase northern stream? 

The GFS isn't far away from a monster. Closed 500mb Low over the Dakota's. Give us a negative NAO Europe lol. 

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Just now, losetoa6 said:

Honestly...just looking at the vort pass and overall h5 . Being 5 days+  out the surface and Thermals will be lagging.  Your right ..the model is showing rain verbatim but I'm suggesting it would be cooler if it verifies like this . And a few tweaks it could be a hit 

 When we're talking about sub 980 bombs over the northeast we should at least keep an eye on it. Probably not our storm for accumulating snow but could see some cool dynamics especially for areas with elevation. Need to keep an eye on the Euro tonight. It's the one that all the other model's trended to tonight. 

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Have seen enough on the overnight runs to keep me somewhat interested in the Jan 3rd threat. Still very much in the air how this system and the 500's will evolve though as both models go about it in their own way.

I am sure most have seen the GEFS which leaves energy behind at 500's giving us a strongly positive tilted trough with a weak shortwave running through the region. The 500's have improved somewhat as they allow the low and moisture to progress farther north then the more suppressed solutions we were seeing on early runs. The one positive with going this route is we don't see the positive height builds and a stronger push of warm air northward as the system runs to our south. As depicted now we are talking an extremely marginal setup though as there is just not much cold to work with initially and no mechanism to really pull in or create cold. Unless the GFS is off a good deal on the temps this is probably a fail for the cities. Even think the favored areas N and W of the cities would struggle greatly to even see a little bit of snow. But we have seen improvements so you never know.

gefsday5.gif.79edb040a0a7e105d9c9eaab21110ef5.gif

 

EPS on the other hand has moved to a more amplified trough and we are seeing a closed low. The negative with this evolution is that we are seeing a stronger push north of warm temps that is eroding what little cold we initially had. That said this evolution is probably more favorable for our snowfall chances when all is said and done. What this evolution does is gives us the ability to possibly bring in/create the cold needed before the moisture departs (flip to snow).  

epsday5.gif.70f42bfd37da29bcd430cf200a1d0942.gif

 

Below we see the 850's. What we have is a pocket of colder air in the lower Mississippi Valley moving northeastward. Though not overly cold they are sufficient and there is even colder air above heading up to 700 mb's. Now you may wonder how this helps us if the system is already moving through our region. Well depending on the trough configuration and the upper closed low running behind the surface low we can quite often see the upper levels influencing the surface where it can slow down, stall or even retrograde a low. And we are seeing this occur to a certain degree at this point. Now the trough (above) has a positive tilt which mitigates this influence somewhat so we are still seeing the low escape before the upper levels can catch up to it. BUT... get that trough to at least a neutral tilt, even better a negative tilt, and chances are decent that we see the upper levels catch up to the surface somewhere in our region for a possible capture. What we then would see is the surface to 500's attempting to stack and the low intensifying. With the cold now overhead all we need are the rates to draw this cold down and with an intensifying low chances are good we would see that.

 

epsday850temps.gif.9a337e3c6349dd157e967adb7ce85538.gif

 

Now I am not sure how many realize it but the op run was very close. Great pass with the 500s to our south with the closed low just opening up at that point. The problem we had was that the trough stayed positively tilted just a touch too long so we didn't see the 500s catch up with the surface until just to our NE off the Jersey coast where the low begins to bomb. Trough goes negative tilt just a touch quicker and that low is bombing and stalling somewhat over our general region. Then we are talking rain flipping over to a potentially heavy wet snow.

Now if I had to rate which evolution I prefer (GFS vs. Euro) I would take the Euro hands down. Think the odds are better with potentially much more upside then the GFS. That said, 5 days away and much can change so it will be interesting to follow.

eta: Nothing earth shattering but we did see a bump up on the EPS snowfall means for this time. 1/2' through the cities and 1" in the NW burbs. Ens members showing snow has also increased.

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5 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

And just after typing the above post I look at the 06Z GFS run and it has made a very strong move towards the Euro. Gets some snow into the region but it is oh so close to something bigger. Trough is just a touch to slow going negative tilt.

Holding out hope but we've seen similar looks at 5 days fizzle quite a few times in the past 5 weeks so maybe *maybe* this will change and will be part 1 of the step up towards mid January. Any change in the trends/recent patterns would be a plus. Keeping hope alive!

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Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Holding out hope but we've seen similar looks at 5 days fizzle quite a few times in the past 5 weeks so maybe *maybe* this will change and will be part 1 of the step up towards mid January. Any change in the trends/recent patterns would be a plus. Keeping hope alive!

With the east based -NAO and the 50/50 in place this more amplified solution makes more sense. Doesn't mean it's right, just that it makes more sense. Think if we are going to score here we need this evolution. Think the weak GFS solution is doomed to be a fail no matter how it goes about it.

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19 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

And just after typing the above post I look at the 06Z GFS run and it has made a very strong move towards the Euro. Gets some snow into the region but it is oh so close to something bigger. Trough is just a touch to slow going

 If that storm were to take southeasterly track and then move up the coast wouldn't that mitigate all of our problems and get us into a more northerly wind direction thus possibly bringing in colder air?

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3 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

 If that storm were to take southeasterly track and then move up the coast wouldn't that mitigate all of our problems and get us into a more northerly wind direction thus possibly bringing in colder air?

Maybe, especially the northern tier. Temps look to be so marginal at this time it is hard to say one way or the other. But at 5 days so who knows. Couldn't hurt though.

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