December/January Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Ji]

Worst eps run to date this year so far. The low pressure is back at the poles...nothing is where it should be. January is pretty much cooked

[Ji]

Just 10 more days away 

No....in 10 days It still looks like crap

[Ji]

Looks okay at 360 I guess. Not what psu expected on jan 15

[psuhoffman]

Not a fan of EPS. Continued degradation of the long range look from a couple days ago. It does have signs of split flow stj cutting under but the center of the ridging is in southern Canada not where we need it up north of Hudson Bay. That means systems would likely track across the south but with no cold to work with. 

Before that the medium range continues to degrade towards a total torch after the 3/4 threat. It wants nothing to do with the -nao on the gefs during that period and so just blasts the Pacific air across. 

The big problem is it continues to move away from the look on the weeklies which should now be entering the end of the EPS window. A new weeklies run now would look different week 3. Impossible to know if it would still evolve towards the look it's been consistently advertising for a month but the weeklies are already wrong for week 3. 

All the guidance is jumpy and vastly different past day 10. Look at geps gefs and EPS and they are worlds apart. So I'm not panicking yet but I will admit (I'm not stubborn) the move away from the look consistently advertised for weeks on the EPS has be frustrated and concerned. Only slightly but concerned none the less. 

We will know in 2 weeks. 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

This is a bad place to be on Jan 7-8. 

[psuhoffman]

21 minutes ago, Ji said:

Looks okay at 360 I guess. Not what psu expected on jan 15

Yea I'm not gonna blow smoke.  It's "ok". But look how far off it from what I expected already. 

Last weekly run 

12z eps 

[Ji]

everytime the euro shows a snowstorm...it takes it away the next run. Everytime we get a good EPS look....the next 2 runs are a step back. We cant progress....i mean had it not been for a 1/2 degree at 850mb in NOV, we would be sitting today with zero inches of snow on the ground and nothing in site in what was suppose to be a good winter. We should be making progress right now on EPS and were going the wrong way. PSU--the 500mbs dont look all that different lol except for the blue. The EPS still shows a trough in the east. Maybe some prgoress with MJO wave will change the EPS pretty quickly.

 

[psuhoffman]

23 minutes ago, Ji said:

Looks okay at 360 I guess. Not what psu expected on jan 15

It's close enough globally that perhaps it was just rushing things a few days. The day 15 really could be only a few days away from a good pattern if (big if) it evolves that direction.  But if I don't start to see the changes I expected appear towards the end of the ensembles soon (next week or so) I will begin to waver. 

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

everytime the euro shows a snowstorm...it takes it away the next run. Everytime we get a good EPS look....the next 2 runs are a step back. We cant progress....i mean had it not been for a 1/2 degree at 850mb in NOV, we would be sitting today with zero inches of snow on the ground and nothing in site in what was suppose to be a good winter. We should be making progress right now on EPS and were going the wrong way. PSU--the 500mbs dont look all that different lol except for the blue. The EPS still shows a trough in the east. Maybe some prgoress with MJO wave will change the EPS pretty quickly.

 

I don't disagree with any of this. And yes on a global longwave scale the EPS is that far off from what it was advertising.  It ended up wrong on the Pacific trough retrograding and the result was the Pacific flooding the Conus AGAIN. Towards the end it's improving. Very possible it's simply a one week delay. And that still fits analogs. 

But every attempt to break down this Pacific driven pattern has been blunted and the obvious reason is the mjo. Just look at a mjo phase correlation map and it matches what has been happening perfectly. Now the week two has evolved to match a phase 6 look. Not shocking. 

The hope still is that the mjo has to leave the warm phases eventually and then the better look the guidance keeps wanting to move to would materialize. I still believe that. But my god is it taking its darn time getting through 4/5/6. 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea I'm not gonna blow smoke.  It's "ok". But look how far off it from what I expected already. 

Last weekly run 

 

No way Europe is cold like in that map.. There is high latitude land torque or something happening. 

[frd]

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It's close enough globally that perhaps it was just rushing things a few days. The day 15 really could be only a few days away from a good pattern if (big if) it evolves that direction.  But if I don't start to see the changes I expected appear towards the end of the ensembles soon (next week or so) I will begin to waver. 

With the MJO issues even a delay beyond the 15 th for a favorable pattern, I find still acceptable. 

The complexity here at this point is un-nerving to some pros,  I am sure of it. But, they would not publicly say so, well some might, but not all of them. I am sure many mets are confident that things will change towards the ideas of a back loaded winter.   

The various private sector seasonals were made using good science, so no need to be concerned yet. I really think the "concern" date would be later in the month of Jan like say somewhere near the 10 th, if at that point things do not become more concrete in the medium range, sure then there is need to reassess. 

Seems just when you admit things are doomed then things begin to change for the better. 

By the way, just reading HM's stuff plants so many what ifs, I say step away and chill out.  

[Maestrobjwa]

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I don't disagree with any of this. And yes on a global longwave scale the EPS is that far off from what it was advertising.  It ended up wrong on the Pacific trough retrograding and the result was the Pacific flooding the Conus AGAIN. Towards the end it's improving. Very possible it's simply a one week delay. And that still fits analogs. 

But every attempt to break down this Pacific driven pattern has been blunted and the obvious reason is the mjo. Just look at a mjo phase correlation map and it matches what has been happening perfectly. Now the week two has evolved to match a phase 6 look. Not shocking. 

The hope still is that the mjo has to leave the warm phases eventually and then the better look the guidance keeps wanting to move to would materialize. I still believe that. But my god is it taking its darn time getting through 4/5/6. 

So just how unprecedented is this? (It moving so slow, that is)

[frd]

11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The hope still is that the mjo has to leave the warm phases eventually and then the better look the guidance keeps wanting to move to would materialize. I still believe that. But my god is it taking its darn time getting through 4/5/6. 

So much for the WxBell idea that it would be mostly in the colder phases.

Hey, I am not grading anyone yet over there, on March 30 th who knows , it may indeed average most of its time in phases 7 8 1 and 2.

I believe while the water West of Aussie are cold(er) ( good ) but the waters to the NE are very warm. (bad ) 

So many elements to be aware of. 

And then Isotherm and the relationship of the MJO and the strat event. We can go there too. But I stop there.

I will see how things play out, but I am still very hopeful for a good period of cold and storminess in the weeks and months ahead.   

[Ji]

i understand about 3% of HM's stuff and ive been reading him for like 90 years

[Amped]

2 hours ago, cbmclean said:

Alright, euro shows MJO going through phase 6 at low amplitude then into COD.  Who else has guidance?

See HMs twitter feed about the MJO. He says it's essentially acting like phase 5 now because of the gwo state.

[KamuSnow]

16 minutes ago, frd said:

With the MJO issues even a delay beyond the 15 th for a favorable pattern, I find still acceptable. 

The complexity here at this point is un-nerving to some pros,  I am sure of it. But, they would not publicly say so, well some might, but not all of them. I am sure many mets are confident that things will change towards the ideas of a back loaded winter.   

The various private sector seasonals were made using good science, so no need to be concerned yet. I really think the "concern" date would be later in the month of Jan like say somewhere near the 10 th, if at that point things do not become more concrete in the medium range, sure then there is need to reassess. 

Seems just when you admit things are doomed then things begin to change for the better. 

By the way, just reading HM's stuff plants so many what ifs, I say step away and chill out.  

While I have no idea of the implications of much of what he posted since my knowledge is pretty limited, it was pretty clear that he expects a lag in the impacts of the MJO moving to Phases 7 and 8. Probably why he posted it at 2 am, lol.

Eta - What JI said.

[Ji]

Just now, KamuSnow said:

While I have no idea of the implications of much of what he posted since my knowledge is pretty limited, it was pretty clear that he expects a lag in the impacts of the MJO moving to Phases 7 and 8. Probably why he posted it at 2 am, lol.

if thats the case...then Januay is cooked and we got 28 days in Feb  to get 40 inches of snow

[KamuSnow]

Just now, Ji said:

if thats the case...then Januay is cooked and we got 28 days in Feb  to get 40 inches of snow

I'm thinking about adjusting my expectations to something like 2011-2012. Then anything more would be a bonus.

[Ji]

1 minute ago, KamuSnow said:

I'm thinking about adjusting my expectations to something like 2011-2012. Then anything more would be a bonus.

maybe next year we will get real nino effects--sorta of like 94-95/95-96

[psuhoffman]

18 minutes ago, Ji said:

i understand about 3% of HM's stuff and ive been reading him for like 90 years

He thinks the pattern change is 15-20 days away due to a slowing and lag on the mjo due partially to what's going on in the western tropical Pacific and the cyclones there. 

I'll admit even with my background in meteorology I still have to google search some stuff sometimes to translate him. But it's great for expanding my knowledge base. 

[blizzardmeiser]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

1 hour ago, WEATHER53 said:

Just 10 more days away 

No....in 10 days It still looks like crap

There is always February

[aldie 22]

The good news is all of this forecasting is based on what a model says is going to happen...you know...the same models that have been wrong before. Now if you want true accuracy go check out that guy Jay's wintry mix...heck he even got written up in the local paper...hes calling for an epic winter. I'm riding him to the finish line.

[frd]

12 minutes ago, KamuSnow said:

While I have no idea of the implications of much of what he posted since my knowledge is pretty limited, it was pretty clear that he expects a lag in the impacts of the MJO moving to Phases 7 and 8. Probably why he posted it at 2 am, lol.

Eta - What JI said.

Yes, I got that.  Basically will need more time. Then again its December 29 th now , not Jan 15 th or 20th.

HM seems hopeful things will progress. 

 

 

[Ji]

The good news is all of this forecasting is based on what a model says is going to happen...you know...the same models that have been wrong before. Now if you want true accuracy go check out that guy Jay's wintry mix...heck he even got written up in the local paper...hes calling for an epic winter. I'm riding him to the finish line.

Lol...split flows and split personalities

[Maestrobjwa]

20 minutes ago, Ji said:

Lol...split flows and split personalities

Well we need to send a message to the Pacific to stop doin' the James Brown splits and pac pukin' all over the place. Go home pac...you're DRUNK!!!

[Ji]

Gfs totally evaporates the Jan 3/4 southern energy. You can hardly see it on the anomaly map. You have to look at vorticity maps to see it lol. Personally I think the Gfs has been lost on this threat.

The fv3 or icon will save us

[Ji]

Geps and gfs look a bit different at 384

[Ji]

Chill storm. We are too north for systems from the south and too north for systems coming from the north

[Ji]

Best hp since pd2 and rain

[Ji]

Gfs had +nao...+ao... +epo at 348. Good job judah cohen