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December/January Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

No one thinks it's going to happen. Just having fun. Nothing in "real" range to discuss. 

We can still discuss how much potential Rain we could get in "real" range.

Lets go over or under 1.75" in the gauges. If we are going to have the wettest year might as well make it unreachable for next several years.

 

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8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

No one thinks it's going to happen. Just having fun. Nothing in "real" range to discuss. 

I treat digital snow as a proxy for the health of the overall pattern.  If the model's aren't spitting out fantasy-land storms, then it is a sign that the long-range pattern is looking sucky.  Conversely, healthy digital snow totals means that that the players are on the field to some degree.  

So I think it is completely rational to be happy to see this as a sign of a less hostile pattern in January.   

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This near-term 20th-21st event looks like a heavy snow producer at high elevations of WV and western VA, even if it's all rain for most in the region. Some ski resorts may do well from it, if the trend east stabilizes. This is a high energy peak with full moon on the 22nd, strong southeast winds will be accompanied by very high tides in the region too. At this point looks like 2-3" rainfalls and 55-60 deg temps trending to 45-50 closer to Blue Ridge, but freezing levels in WV not much higher than 2,000' could allow for some heavy snowfalls on higher slopes. Would need a further 200 miles east trend to become a genuine snow threat for most of the region, seems out of the picture now but hey, getting near coastal storms to shift 200 miles east is easy enough. Why not this one? 

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17 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Euro @240 looks semi interesting.  Looks like a possible cad setup.  Its wayy out there but some higher heights into GL ...confluence over NE . .pretty strong high pressure in  south central and se Canada ..energy trying to eject from the sw. 

ecmwf_z500a_namer_11.png

 

yea FV3 has snow to ice to rain on Dec 28

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30 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

It's funny how during epic patterns we cant even seem to buy a threat the past few years yet when the pattern is horrendous looking and everyone punts we get several threats showing up. 

Threats are showing up during the front side of the transition out of a crap pattern so they aren't really flukes in the true sense. 

6z gfs has the sickest SPV split and beating I've seen yet though... It way actually save winter this time

gfs_Tz10_nhem_33.png

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4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Day 10 GEFS 10mb temp anomalies. Impressive. Perlar Vertex be disturbed.

You notice how many weather records are occuring recently near us and to a degree in the NH, rainfall records, low pressure records, low temps, this week the progged low pressure area to our West at 985 or lower, a record if that happens, over performing coastal storms, the area off VA and NJ that storms explode at. Have shown some sat pics of these in the past. 

Every indication this may continue I hope. 

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1 minute ago, frd said:

You notice how many weather records are occuring recently near us and to a degree in the NH, rainfall records, low pressure records, low temps, this week the progged low pressure area to our West at 985 or lower, a record if that happens, over performing coastal storms, the area off VA and NJ that storms explode at. Have shown some sat pics of these in the past. 

Every indication this may continue I hope. 

Certainly doesn’t seem a shortage of strong lows and moisture laden storms. Keep that up when the pattern flips and it’ll be busy in here. Storm mode for weeks. Ha

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2 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Certainly doesn’t seem a shortage of strong lows and moisture laden storms. Keep that up when the pattern flips and it’ll be busy in here. Storm mode for weeks. Ha

Eh, ask Santa for a big supply of your favorite K cups !!!  

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12 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

Daughter Vortices"

Sounds like a term to put on my "If I had a band, I'd name it..." list

Heavy metal of course , right .

But seriously, I was thinking it might be time to post Ryan's 46 day snowfall map.   ( just for laughs ) 

 

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Hmm, to be honest if this is all we get I am very dissapointed :-)   but I take ! 

And, OMG to the NE of us.   

As for NH snow cover decline posted yesterday by late Jan might be near the top again. 

Also, listened to DT this AM on new post , very gung ho for a good Jan. No surprise, right,  but nice to have concensus.   

 

 

 

 

 

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