December/January Medium/Long Range Discussion

[nj2va]

@donsutherland1 has a great post over at 33andrain, quoted below:. Btw $5 to the first person to quote this long azz post for Leesburg 

Quote

On December 31, 1831, The New York Advertiser published a few sentences describing New York City's winters from 1789-90 through 1830-31. Its entry for winter 1810-11 read as follows:

 

Much snow in February, though not much severe cold this winter. This season was remarkable for a severe snowstorm on the 2nd November...

 

A snowstorm brought accumulating snow as far south as Alexandria, VA and 6"-8" to the New York City area on November 1-2. Does that sound somewhat familiar to this winter?

 

On November 15, an early-season snowstorm brought 0.5" snow to the Alexandria area, 1.4" to Washington, DC, 3.6" to Philadelphia, and 6.4" to New York City. Parts of Connecticut, New York State, and Pennsylvania received a foot or more of snow.

 

Back to that past winter, through much of December and January, the winter was not noteworthy. There were no major Arctic outbreaks. There were no big snowstorms. Winter was sleeping. It awakened in late January, as an Arctic blast brought severe cold to the East during the January 23-26 period. The arrival of the cold laid a foundation for two significant snowfalls that occurred in the January 31-February 5 period.

 

The second storm brought very heavy snow with 1-2 feet in the Northeast. Interior sections of southern New England were buried under 2-3 feet of snow.

 

Today, we are slogging through what seems to be an endless snow drought. Storms come. The rain falls. But there is no snow. It has been a remarkably wet year. New York City has already received 64.53" of precipitation ranking 2018 as the 5th wettest year on record. Other locations including Atlantic City, Elmira, Hamburg (PA), and Upton have experienced their wettest year on record. And in fitting fashion, more rain could arrive just as the ball is about to descend on the throngs gathered in an area stretching from Times Square to Central Park. Balmy breezes could then define the start of 2019. The thermometer could even flirt with 60°.

 

Still, for those who want snow, there's no need to become overly discouraged, much less lose hope altogether. A look at the data reveals:

 

1. An extraordinary high-amplitude MJO is currently nearing the end of Phase 5. It will likely move into Phase 6 before this month ends. After the first week of January, it could then be moving into Phase 7 and later Phase 8. Those are colder phases.

 

2. The SOI has remained persistently positive (37 of the last 40 days, including today with a 15.98 value bringing the monthly average to 9.56) despite an ongoing El Niño event. If past history with positive December SOI cases during El Niño winters is representative, the proverbial rubber band will very likely snap. January would then feature a predominantly negative and sometimes strongly negative SOI.

 

3. A negative SOI in January during El Niño winters has typically featured frequent and often strong Atlantic blocking. Also, January MJO Phases 6-8 during El Niño winters promote a negative SOI. In turn, a negative SOI overwhelmingly (>80% cases) during an El Niño January coincides with a negative AO. So, a scenario where the MJO moves into Phase 6, a negative SOI develops afterward and then becomes sustained, and Atlantic blocking follows is the base case for January. The alternative cases that the MJO remains locked in Phase 5 through a large part of January, collapses to low amplitudes, or shifts back toward Phase 4 are very unlikely.

 

4. As December nears an end, the PDO remains positive. A positive PDO favors PNA ridging in the west (PNA+).

 

5. The most favorable pattern for big January snowstorms in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas is the AO-/PNA+ combination. All of New York City's 10" or greater January snowstorms (1950-2018) commenced during that combination. In addition, 10 of the 12 January snowstorms since 1950 that brought 6" or more snow to at least 3 of the following cities--Boston, New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC--took place with an AO-/PNA+ combination.

 

All said, the pieces of the puzzle to winter 2018-19 are slowly coming together. The wait is painful. As the models grapple with the changes that are in their early stages, sometimes taking steps backward, that pain will only increase. However, the time for waiting is diminishing. The EPS weeklies have now had reasonable consistency in the extended range. Some of that extended range is no longer in the fantasy period beyond 3 weeks.

 

Will winter 2018-19 awaken from its slumber as winter 1810-11 did?

 

Will the unfolding sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event, that is now peaking, lay the foundation for prolonged blocking that lasts deep into meteorological winter and perhaps even into the start of meteorological spring, even if it initially favors Eurasia?

 

Will winter 2018-19 assume the character of such El Niño winters as 1977-78 where once the snows started falling, they kept falling well into March?

 

For now, we must wait. Things could be much worse. For example, the following was written of winter 1824-25, "Mild winter with but little snow."

 

Winter 2018-19 has already featured a significant November snowstorm, severe November cold shot, and a major-to-historic Southeast/Lower Middle Atlantic snowstorm.

 

While it is true that there are no crystal balls where everything is snowy and the outlook is always certain, I remain encouraged. Taking into consideration the above factors, the large-scale changes now in their early evolution, ENSO climatology, and the repeated recent prophesies of the EPS weeklies, I'm still looking forward to what lies ahead.

 

[EastCoast NPZ]

10 minutes ago, nj2va said:

@donsutherland1 has a great post over at 33andrain, quoted below:. Btw $5 to the first person to quote this long azz post for Leesburg 

 

So, now our hopeful analog is a winter from 2 centuries ago.  

[psuhoffman]

@nj2va his thoughts are pretty much the same as mine. Still would be nice and I'll breathe easier when I see the expected changes happening in real time. 

[Wonderdog]

1 minute ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

So, now our hopeful analog is a winter from 2 centuries ago.  

The projected forecasts for late Jan into Feb remains the same in Sutherland's posts as what people here have been saying for weeks here.

[cbmclean]

16 minutes ago, nj2va said:

@donsutherland1 has a great post over at 33andrain, quoted below:. Btw $5 to the first person to quote this long azz post for Leesburg 

 

Help me obi wan Kenobi, you're my only hope.

[Ji]

[mention=3516]nj2va[/mention] his thoughts are pretty much the same as mine. Still would be nice and I'll breathe easier when I see the expected changes happening in real time. 

What's been killing the forecasters is the weeklies but the weeklies and eps have never really been on the same page. Go back to those threads where those epic weeklies runs popped up. I think we put too much hope in climate models

[BristowWx]

Just now, Wonderdog said:

The projected forecasts for late Jan into Feb remains the same in Sutherland's posts as what people here have been saying for weeks here.

No pattern stays the same indefinitely so a pattern change has to be in the cards.  Might not be a good one but we will see.  

[frd]

36 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

DC is sitting at +3.2 temp wise. Matt and CWG are going to absolutely nail December...well done

I read some of Ray's threads over the last few weeks, ( 40 70 Benchmark ),  and he stated had he not seen the incoming Scandinavian Block and other factors he was going to go with a blowtorch December versus just above normal but certainly not a deep winter month. He also stated there were several analogs that showed what transpired and hence so far his correct forecast. 

For him to continue his roll he needs that flip by Jan 15 to 20th and he needs snow. His seasonal mentions two time periods where he thinks there could be very significant snowstorms.  

Soon everyone will have judgement day. 

 

[nj2va]

20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@nj2va his thoughts are pretty much the same as mine. Still would be nice and I'll breathe easier when I see the expected changes happening in real time. 

Exactly.  I wrote a week or so ago that I’ve written off winter until 1/15 in my mind and any snow we’d get before then would be a bonus (aka thread the needle within 120 hours)...certainly hard to write off a period in winter but I was trying to set my expectations.  My thinking hasn’t changed but the waiting really is testing my patience.  We need the MJO to move out of the warm phases to get the PAC less hostile and get rid of the pac puke air mass.  I think we get there but it’ll be ugly in here until then.  

ETA:  Today’s CFS and GEFS MJO forecasts gets us to phase 7 in about 7 days.  If it does happen within a 7-10 day window, it’d coincide well with a pattern flip on the magical unicorn Jan 15.  

[frd]

Yesterday the zonal winds were a bit lower but this should start to have some effect. 

Reading too online there may be a secondary time period of reduced winds from this point, and a reversal. 

HM lmade a mention last night of the polar night jet .

The instant SSW connections were wrong because of the AAM and tropical forcing. But we are beyond the peak of that Tropics' forcing (all of which I explained in other thread), and the effects of the polar night deceleration will be felt going into mid-Jan.

 

 

PV-Forecast‏ @Forecas55175638 8m8 minutes ago

More

The zonal mean zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N is today (GFS analysis): 3.9 m/s Weakest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date is: 2.3 m/s 2001

 

[mattie g]

50 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

DC is sitting at +3.2 temp wise. Matt and CWG are going to absolutely nail December...well done

Wow...what a ballsy call. For DC. In winter.

[frd]

@poolz1

Concensus growing , look for some changes going forward I think with a reversal of the + AO to a decline. 

1. • versation
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     Allan Huffman‏ @RaleighWx 2h2 hours ago

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     Replying to @scotlandwx

     Yep latest op EC/EPS/GFS/GEFS all in agreement on 1/1. Image courtesy of metdesk

 

 

 

 

 

 

[psuhoffman]

52 minutes ago, frd said:

Did you read HM's thoughts this morning ( all 20 posts from late last night ? ) Interesting .....

Mixed feelings. He seems to be supporting an eventual pattern change. He explains why it's taking so long. But none of those analogs to this current mjo phenomenon worked out very snowy for us.  And one was the only weak modoki nino fail. But he wasn't using that analog as a predictor of results this year. Still...

 

[psuhoffman]

35 minutes ago, Ji said:

38 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

[mention=3516]nj2va[/mention] his thoughts are pretty much the same as mine. Still would be nice and I'll breathe easier when I see the expected changes happening in real time. 

What's been killing the forecasters is the weeklies but the weeklies and eps have never really been on the same page. Go back to those threads where those epic weeklies runs popped up. I think we put too much hope in climate models

I wouldn't have bought into the weeklies at all if they weren't supported by my identified analogs. Problem is those analogs were based on a nino. If the soi fails to reflect a nino those analogs become garbage. 

[frd]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Mixed feelings. He seems to be supporting an eventual pattern change. He explains why it's taking so long. But none of those analogs to this current mjo phenomenon worked out very snowy for us.  And one was the only weak modoki nino fail. But he wasn't using that analog as a predictor of results this year. Still...

 

More snow now falls in Feb and March the past 15 to 30 years than Decembers. Decembers have ben declining a long time for snowfall.  

Maybe this is simply a reflection NH global drivers, SSTs, sea ice, ocean currents, blocking, etc. of later summers in general, Falls that extend into December and winters that continue in April. Speculation of course.  

[frd]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I wouldn't have bought into the weeklies at all if they weren't supported by my identified analogs. Problem is those analogs were based on a nino. If the soi fails to reflect a nino those analogs become garbage. 

I assume you are talking about ocean/atmosphere coupling? If so, hopefully we get that late Jan into late March 

[frd]

This is a big change I say from 24 hours ago. Rather drastic as many members had it all going to +4 . 

I like it though.  

 

 

[Bob Chill]

I thought the gefs and EPS runs last night looked pretty good. I'm not rooting for big cold so i dont care about not getting an arctic invasion. I just want a non shutout pattern and all 3 global ens are showing a workable longwave pattern. Gefs and eps would favor a much better storm track than weve been stuck in last few weeks.

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

I thought the gefs and EPS runs last night looked pretty good. I'm not rooting for big cold so i dont care about not getting an arctic invasion. I just want a non shutout pattern and all 3 global ens are showing a workable longwave pattern. Gefs and eps would favor a much better storm track than weve been stuck in last few weeks.

Yeah, the end of the EPS run (and to a slightly lesser extent the GEFS) has a good pattern for snow chances for us.  It's just not the borderline KU pattern offered by the 12z EPS yesterday.  

[Waiting on snow]

Just my opinion but it seems like when the AK trough sets up and the Pac firehose gets going it's hard to stop. DT always says do not believe any model showing an east coast storm until the MJO gets out of 4,5 and 6. So far it's taking its sweet time and wants to stall and loop in the warm phases which means Pac puke will continue until it changes.

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I thought the gefs and EPS runs last night looked pretty good. I'm not rooting for big cold so i dont care about not getting an arctic invasion. I just want a non shutout pattern and all 3 global ens are showing a workable longwave pattern. Gefs and eps would favor a much better storm track than weve been stuck in last few weeks.

 

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Yeah, the end of the EPS run (and to a slightly lesser extent the GEFS) has a good pattern for snow chances for us.  It's just not the borderline KU pattern offered by the 12z EPS yesterday.  

By the end both were workable with a good look up top. But the EPS was a step back from the previous run and the absolutely awful week before is hard to look at so I probably was more down on it than warranted. 

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Yeah, the end of the EPS run (and to a slightly lesser extent the GEFS) has a good pattern for snow chances for us.  It's just not the borderline KU pattern offered by the 12z EPS yesterday.  

I cant remember a time in my tracking history where weve flipped from a pac puke shutout to a KU pattern inside of 2 weeks. What i do like seeing is the endless string of easy west tracks should be ending in a week to 10 days. Opens the door for storms approaching from the west to give some front end frozen. My guess is ops are going to start showing a lot more confluence to our north over the next week. 

[Waiting on snow]

1 hour ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

So, now our hopeful analog is a winter from 2 centuries ago.  

Grasping straws isn't it? Not starting and AGW debate in here, but I'm sure everyone agrees its not the same climate as even just 50 yrs ago, much less 200!

[PDIII]

3 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

We don’t talk about warm rain much?

With the track of the upper level cut off just to our south.. Looks like a rain to snow set up with crashing temps.. But then again if the euro showing all rain at the surface.. then I  guess there is not enough cold air support a dynamic event.. 

 The CMC and the Euro are showing this sort of track.. and to a certain extent so is the FV3... I feel like this might be something that sneaks up on us.    

[Ralph Wiggum]

Not much to talk about but watching the gfs op rolling in thru 132 and looks like it holds stj energy back just long enough while building confluence and waiting for NS to dive in later on. Delayed larger lp? Not sure what frozen implications would be tho.

 

Eta: NM....NS never really responds to the ridging out West this run....streams remain separate. ICON was a tucked nor'easter (warm) FWIW so worlds apart. 

[NorthArlington101]

Canadian looks like a step back from 00z, but without the p-type maps I’m not 100% sure it doesn’t at least snow on us still.

[Ralph Wiggum]

5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Canadian looks like a step back from 00z, but without the p-type maps I’m not 100% sure it doesn’t at least snow on us still.

Until the mjo moves out of the warm phas(es) getting a snowfall in the I95 areas to verify is a long shot regardless of what models are showing. It's like groundhog day tbh a repeat performance....for now. We are either squashing the stj or when we get the jets to merge it has been pumping the warmth and we get a cutter or tucked coastal look. Need to kick that mjo in gear.

[NorthArlington101]

Canadian looks like a step back from 00z, but without the p-type maps I’m not 100% sure it doesn’t at least snow on us still.

Meh, rain to snow. Virtual snow beggars can’t be virtual snow choosers I suppose.

[Ji]

45 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I cant remember a time in my tracking history where weve flipped from a pac puke shutout to a KU pattern inside of 2 weeks. What i do like seeing is the endless string of easy west tracks should be ending in a week to 10 days. Opens the door for storms approaching from the west to give some front end frozen. My guess is ops are going to start showing a lot more confluence to our north over the next week. 

jan 16 says hold my beer

[Bob Chill]

11 minutes ago, Ji said:

jan 16 says hold my beer

The 8th-9th is the next chance after the upcoming fail. Keep an eye on that period. GFS has the storm but too far NW. Could easily get pushed under us though.