Wonderdog Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 Is FV-3 hinting at a redevelopment off the coast on the 9th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 H5 is pretty progressive so it would be too late to benefit us this run .But I'm sure it will change a dozen times in the next several days Redeveloping clippers are a big way we score usually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 I asked cranky to elaborate on something he mentioned in passing in relation to the 2015-16 super nino...interesting theory! Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 31 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I asked cranky to elaborate on something he mentioned in passing in relation to the 2015-16 super nino...interesting theory! Thoughts? Bastardi has posted this theory before as has Ryan Maue although both have said we likely have come off it by now. I know many speculate the 93-94 and 95-96 winters with fairly active storm tracks were a lag of the long duration 1990-1992 El Niño. The background states of those two winters largely argued for them to be dry yet they were very active. 2010-11 may have been a lag of the 09-10 Niño as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 Jma is a hit nw of D.C. Come on people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Jma is a hit nw of D.C. Come on people. That's supposed to be Ji's job to post that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 32 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Jma is a hit nw of D.C. Come on people. I need some CRAS. Anyone have some CRAS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 3 minutes ago, Scraff said: I need some CRAS. Anyone have some CRAS? Woah slow down. You sure your ready for that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 Can we extrapolate the nam yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Can we extrapolate the nam yet? Squirrels, foxes, and deer were out in the masses getting food.. They must know something is up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 49 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Jma is a hit nw of D.C. Come on people. Good day for modeling as long as you ignore the GFs and GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Good day for modeling as long as you ignore the GFs and GEFS. It’s a safe bet if you are active on this board the GFS and GEFS were ignored and possibly burned in effigy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 19 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Good day for modeling as long as you ignore the GFs and GEFS. 12z GEFS may be rock bottom (and I don’t think it was right either). Snowfall means improved on the 18z GEFS by an 1”+ vs 12z in DC. At least its something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 00z CMC is a hit for next week. Surface and 850s below 0 DC and west. Waiting for the better TT maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 GFS is a miss. Need the s/w to eject a bit quicker IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 Just now, nj2va said: GFS is a miss. Need the s/w to eject a bit quicker IMO. Every 6 hours, vasty different H5. Comical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 CMC is pretty good, but CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Every 6 hours, vasty different H5. Comical The best part of the GFS is that if you don’t like the OP just look to the FV3 which seems to be the snowier brother to the OP. Wonky NCEP maps show precip getting to DC with 850s below 0. Waiting on TT to see just how much... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 Just now, nj2va said: The best part of the GFS is that if you don’t like the OP just look to the FV3 which seems to be the snowier brother to the OP. Wonky NCEP maps show precip getting to DC with 850s below 0. Waiting on TT to see just how much... Do you have a link to the ncep maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 Just now, nj2va said: The best part of the GFS is that if you don’t like the OP just look to the FV3 which seems to be the snowier brother to the OP. Wonky NCEP maps show precip getting to DC with 850s below 0. Waiting on TT to see just how much... Looks like a swath of .1 qpf. Maybe a little more. Icon was decent except for temps ruining a good track. 2 global ops showing snow isn't bad for 5-6 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 1 minute ago, Chris78 said: Do you have a link to the ncep maps? https://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/ It will show GFS on there but its actually the FV3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Looks like a swath of .1 qpf. Maybe a little more. Icon was decent except for temps ruining a good track. 2 global ops showing snow isn't bad for 5-6 days out Happy to be tracking something besides pattern changes and 384HR 500 maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 Just now, nj2va said: Happy to be tracking something besides pattern changes and 384HR 500 maps. Truth. These types of deals are a more common way we get snow versus a perfect setup. Getting lucky with a fairly weak wave and marginal airmass would be a fitting way to score right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 Hugging the CMC tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Truth. These types of deals are a more common way we get snow versus a perfect setup. Getting lucky with a fairly weak wave and marginal airmass would be a fitting way to score right now It really would. We spent 10 days tracking the early December near miss and I had two flurries to show for it in a much less hostile setup. This could ‘sneak’ up on us with a less than ideal setup, marginal air mass, and thread the needle precip situation. Getting us primed for our 4 HECS starting Jan 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 Impressive for psu jan 15 date Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tplbge Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 42 minutes ago, stormtracker said: CMC is pretty good, but CMC Yep. I'm all for snow, but when was the last time the CMC beat out the better models by itself? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 14 minutes ago, Ji said: Impressive for psu jan 15 date Oh stop...you just post that to troll PSU? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 Oh stop...you just post that to troll PSU? LolI mean I didn't paint that map.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 7 minutes ago, Ji said: 8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Oh stop...you just post that to troll PSU? Lol I mean I didn't paint that map.... Yeah but you put it out there like it's gonna be reality (as opposed to, well, changing every 6 hours like an op run will do 372 hours out...sheesh!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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