nj2va Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 30 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'm pretty happy with the 12z eps and the differences from 0z. The most noticeable height differences between the 2 runs is higher heights over GL, deeper eastern trough, bigger ridge in the EPO region, and the trop PV near Siberia is much weaker. We really need to hope the weeklies week 3 is right with timing and placement and 12z EPS was def a step towards the week 3 look. Can you remind me what dates week 3 correlate to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 58 minutes ago, nj2va said: https://twitter.com/NWSCPC/status/1078743478446800897?s=20 CPC on board with a colder look from 1/12-1/25 thanks to the MJO progression. If you ever wanted an outlook to be below normal that’s a pretty good time. Below normal in January should be quite chilly indeed. That’s good news right there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 Okay gfs may thread the needle this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Different h5 look for day 6 storm S/W looks positive though, right? At 126? Or did I get that wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: I'm convinced that is where we will end up as soon as we get the mjo out of phases 3-6. It's just a matter of when. Per NCEP plot one could argue that there seems to be a lessening in amplitude, but if its right and amplitude starts to increase and head towards 6 in the next couple days, that we would start to see signs of the promise land (in regards to perty maps to look at). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: @WxUSAF Heck, I dont even need to wait for happy hour runs....I'll drink to that right there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 Longing for the wonderful winters of yore. Like 13/14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 Looks like positive changes on Happy Hour GFS for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 Nice phasing from northern and southern stream on GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 I know some are doing the Jan-March later winter cold and snowy dance but we are in trouble and heading for more. Zip in Dec and New Years is now getting pushed back. Trends are hard to break and we gotta get out of the “lows to the west trend” I would caution against the SSW emphasis as our savior as its unproven. Never did see a big snow winter, two or three events of 4-6” each gets me to my 12-15” call and Jan 1/2 which back on 12/15 looked promising now looks like 50-60. That’s gotta stop, the first can’t become the 10Th which then becomes the 20th. its hard to snow around DC, we need a lot of cooperation and last 30 days have not provided it and nothing favorable really looming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 At least its something to track even if verbatim GFS is right at a sloppy inch or so for DC. Hold us over until the 15th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Trying to cut off at 150. Thermals are marginal but a decent run Rates will save us and storm will create its own cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 18z GFS favors SW VA into C VA again lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Trying to cut off at 150. Thermals are marginal but a decent run All the EPS members that worked (around 10 or so) were quick/progressive evolutions. 18z Gfs is splitting the difference between cutting off and making haste. Just a gut call but i dont think a crawling cutoff is the most likely progression Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, yoda said: 18z GFS favors SW VA into C VA again lol Ironic, right, but just one of many future options. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: All the EPS members that worked (around 10 or so) were quick/progressive evolutions. 18z Gfs is splitting the difference between cutting off and making haste. Just a gut call but i dont think a crawling cutoff is the most likely progression Iirc one of the recent euro runs had the crawling cutoff look and wound up torching basically everyone East of the Apps all the way into New England. So yeah progressive fast hitter probably what most would want to root for but I could be wrong on that assessment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 This was a cold front wave yesterday. It looks like a storm with a lot of trend potential, this Winter. 5" of rain in December is a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 1 minute ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: This was a cold front wave yesterday. It looks like a storm with a lot of trend potential, this Winter. 5" of rain in December is a lot. I always read great stuff until I get to your posts..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 F3 is pretty decent. Fast enough progression to take advantage of the cold before it runs away. I'll wait until TT for detailed panels but looks like a 1-4" deal along and west of 95. Eta: This is all snow for the majority of our region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 21 minutes ago, yoda said: 18z GFS favors SW VA into C VA again lol I love it. That would clinch a @George BM victory! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 19 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: I know some are doing the Jan-March later winter cold and snowy dance but we are in trouble and heading for more. Zip in Dec and New Years is now getting pushed back. Trends are hard to break and we gotta get out of the “lows to the west trend” I would caution against the SSW emphasis as our savior as its unproven. Never did see a big snow winter, two or three events of 4-6” each gets me to my 12-15” call and Jan 1/2 which back on 12/15 looked promising now looks like 50-60. That’s gotta stop, the first can’t become the 10Th which then becomes the 20th. its hard to snow around DC, we need a lot of cooperation and last 30 days have not provided it and nothing favorable really looming Its only been the last 2 weeks that were hostile. Before that we got some snow in November. Storms were generally taking favorable tracks. And we had 2 close misses. A perfect vort pass that developed a surface feature too late and a southern slider. Then the mjo took a big dump on us by going all ape into the warm phases. It sucks. Yea it's eaten away at a chunk of our snow climo. But if we can get the mjo to stip killing us in the next 2 weeks and resume a favorable pattern by late January we have time for a save. The problem with persistence based forecasting is a pattern persists until it doesn't. Patterns don't last or coincide with the seasons. Last year persistence would have argued against the negative nao period and snow in march. The super drought that had some blowing up every thread would have argued against the deluge since. December 2015 would have argued against what happened that January. Patterns flip ok a dime and if you always ride persistence you will look like a genius for a while until it flips. Timing pattern changes is tricky. Usually they take longer then guidance suggests. Both good and bad. Often a good pattern will look like it's breaking down only to reload. That's why I never really bit on late December or early January and stuck with mid January on as the likely flip. We will see. But there are signs things aren't as doom and gloom as you suggest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/1078784272448790528 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 Fv3 has the storm on the 8th-9th that the EPS was hinting at. I'm violently tossing the old gfs until it starts showing snow again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 14 minutes ago, anotherman said: https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/1078784272448790528 Redacted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 11 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Redacted? Almost posted that myself. But then I decided I didn't want to clutter up the thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 59 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: All the EPS members that worked (around 10 or so) were quick/progressive evolutions. 18z Gfs is splitting the difference between cutting off and making haste. Just a gut call but i dont think a crawling cutoff is the most likely progression 12z op GFS had no support in the GEFS for the 3rd it looked like. EPS also seemed to disagree with the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 2/20 GEFS members get us snow on the 3rd/4th... There are two other ones with very close brushes S/E with little snowfall and one other one slides south and hits the areas that did well last storm. Rest not worth mentioning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 Fv3 has the storm on the 8th-9th that the EPS was hinting at. I'm violently tossing the old gfs until it starts showing snow again Your killing those waiting for TT to come out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: 19 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Fv3 has the storm on the 8th-9th that the EPS was hinting at. I'm violently tossing the old gfs until it starts showing snow again Your killing those waiting for TT to come out! You should be thanking me for giving you your digital snow fix early. Now break out your 1080p shovel and get busy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 14 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Almost posted that myself. But then I decided I didn't want to clutter up the thread. It’s just slightly too late for that. Now back to my Mountaineers... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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