Ji Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 Imagine that. An op run at 10 days not verifying. Who'da thunk it?Btw....every rainstorm modeled 10 days out has been nailed to a tee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 FV3 GFS for Jan 3rd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 Sorry to interrupt the b*tchfest but FV3 threads the needle next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 FV3 GFS for Jan 3rdIts alot quicker with sw. Dosent close it off and slow it down like gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 55 minutes ago, Ji said: newsflash--its suppose to get cold in January...its like saying models show warmup in July Are the models showing a warmup for July? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 19 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 3-4 days ago, it was really looking like the period after today's cutter from say the 30th-10th or so was going to be a solid step down to our incoming expected epicness. Now instead we have another major cutter on New Year's and then another gush of Pac puke to deal with. The Nina-ness of the December 10-January 10 period is undeniable. It's pretty sh-tty frankly. Now we're back to the end of the 2 week period for a (seemingly) sustained good pattern. It's been a weird stretch. Fits the warm Dec nino stats but they way it's happened doesn't fit a nino. Is what it is. I'm not sold that we get another week long pac puke job after the 1st. Until it's locked in I'm expected models to back away from that idea and lean more towards cold continental air dropping down but what the hell do I know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 Hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 Are the models showing a warmup for July?Yea man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 Hmmm Yeah, the ICON as it was showed on TTT was weird. Was assuming it was doing some mixing, but it doesn’t show mixing on TTT. It was an odd, seemingly highly rate-dependent evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 12 minutes ago, Newman said: FV3 GFS for Jan 3rd This model also had 10" snow much of Eastern PA for Sunday only 24 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: 4 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: Are the models showing a warmup for July? Yea man Great i won’t cancel my July golf plans. But if this winter doesn’t turn around soon i might be making some January golf plans Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 9 minutes ago, nj2va said: Sorry to interrupt the b*tchfest but FV3 threads the needle next week. We do very well when it comes to threading the needle. True story.....too good of a look and we usually fail so theres that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'm not sold that we get another week long pac puke job after the 1st. Until it's locked in I'm expected models to back away from that idea and lean more towards cold continental air dropping down but what the hell do I know? I've had the same feeling for awhile (i.e., that after Xmas we'd be in a step back to a more typical Nino pattern and cold air), but it keeps getting pushed right. Likely the MJO being in Phase 4-5 for so long is the prime culprit. But Christ seeing the can kicked once again with another Pac jet extension showing up after whatever happens on the 3rd/4th is frustrating for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: I've had the same feeling for awhile (i.e., that after Xmas we'd be in a step back to a more typical Nino pattern and cold air), but it keeps getting pushed right. Likely the MJO being in Phase 4-5 for so long is the prime culprit. But Christ seeing the can kicked once again with another Pac jet extension showing up after whatever happens on the 3rd/4th is frustrating for sure. We are wasting a heck of alot of stj moisture and prime activity. We can only hope that once this change takes shape after mid-Jan we still have the stj component sticking around in a favorable spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: We are wasting a heck of alot of stj moisture and prime activity. We can only hope that once this change takes shape after mid-Jan we still have the stj component sticking around in a favorable spot. Don’t worry. I’m sure that 2019 will break records....the wettest year on record followed by the driest on record. By next December, we won’t be talking about death bands, but death valleys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I've had the same feeling for awhile (i.e., that after Xmas we'd be in a step back to a more typical Nino pattern and cold air), but it keeps getting pushed right. Likely the MJO being in Phase 4-5 for so long is the prime culprit. But Christ seeing the can kicked once again with another Pac jet extension showing up after whatever happens on the 3rd/4th is frustrating for sure. If we can score something around the 3rd or 4th it would make the following week much more bearable until the pattern hopefully gets right for good after the 15th or so. If we don't score something in the first 4 or 5 days of January it might take to the last 10 days of month. I didn't think December was going to be off the charts great but I also didn't think I would be waiting 2 months between seeing snowflakes...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 We are wasting a heck of alot of stj moisture and prime activity. We can only hope that once this change takes shape after mid-Jan we still have the stj component sticking around in a favorable spot.We all know we are going to a cold dry clipper period. Will be exciting at first but then old real fast. Ultimately more frustrating than what we have now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 Pretty awful GEFS run. This game is getting exhausting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Pretty awful GEFS run. This game is getting exhausting. Hug the EPS. It's less awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Hug the EPS. It's less awful. Would be nice to get the epic euro weeklies pattern inside of day 10. That GEFS pattern says cancel the first 3 weeks of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Would be nice to get the epic euro weeklies pattern inside of day 10. That GEFS pattern says cancel the first 3 weeks of January. It does seem like we’re just treading in place or going in reverse. Every time it looks like things are turning a corner, another curveball is thrown our way. Whatever happens the rest of this winter, will be a fascinating case study to analyze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Would be nice to get the epic euro weeklies pattern inside of day 10. That GEFS pattern says cancel the first 3 weeks of January. Every time an epic weeklies is mentioned a unicorn loses it's horn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 1 minute ago, nj2va said: It does seem like we’re just treading in place or going in reverse. Every time it looks like things are turning a corner, another curveball is thrown our way. Whatever happens the rest of this winter, will be a fascinating case study to analyze. It's not like we havent been down this road and studied the mythical day 10+ super spectacular pattern to end all patterns before yet we vow that we've learned and wont let the same mistakes cloud our vision ever again. Well, here we are again. As much as the eternal optimists wont admit, things are slowly unraveling. I will be content honestly if we can salvage a 10-day window of winter weather this year. That seems reasonable enough doesnt it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 6 minutes ago, nj2va said: It does seem like we’re just treading in place or going in reverse. Every time it looks like things are turning a corner, another curveball is thrown our way. Whatever happens the rest of this winter, will be a fascinating case study to analyze. Seemed like we were all heading to the right direction in the progs from the 20-25th. Pretty much been all backwards since, minus the weeklies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Every time an epic weeklies is mentioned a unicorn loses it's horn. At this point it would be nice just to be in puppy neck snapping range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 Euro looks interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Seemed like we were all heading to the right direction in the progs from the 20-25th. Pretty much been all backwards since, minus the weeklies. It's the mjo. Not only is it in nearly unprecedented territory for a nino but it's taking forever to cycle through the warm phases. I'll admit I didn't foresee that. Until that weakens or gets out of 5/6 we are not going to be able to sustain an eastern trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: Euro looks interesting One of the better looks at h5 for a thread the needle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: One of the better looks at h5 for a thread the needle. The cutoff thing sucks though. Need the shortwave to progress with the flow or cold will run away from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ji said: Euro looks interesting Heavy snow in Arkansas. Wouldn’t that be something... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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