December/January Medium/Long Range Discussion

[frd]

I recommend this video JB video, no fluff, no climate change, just great info. A long and very detailed video. Almost like a seasonal summary, but on video.  

Take away, well, flip the SOI and move the MJO and all things will fall into place. 

The MJO is simply the biggest player now it seems. Causing the AO to spike  up, a positive SOI of over 18, a lot of atmospheric energy flying around the NH, etc.  

But, when the hammer comes you will know it. 

https://www.weatherbell.com/#icon

 

[pasnownut]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

That wasn't an ensemble mean. It was the control run. We got hit by 3 warning events and a couple minor ones. Western NC was higher because there was one big southern slider in there.  New England got more because they are New England. Your reading too much into it. It was a great run and your upset because you weren't the bullseye. 

Ive got a dose of harsh reality for you. We are almost never the bullseye.  Years like 1987 and 2010 come around once every 20 years. 

I'm tellin ya, its a control run in WAY WAY out there land that doesn't deliver to MBY so I dont like it.  

Folks, models are to be used as a tool, not a friggn snow gauge. 

[frd]

To balance things on the darker side as seeing all options is important lets hopew this progression does not happen because if it does then forget about Jan and how knows what the consequences will be. 

Hopefully this is incorrect due to reasons discussed the last several days.

We want progression to better phases not a return to phase 6. 

  

 

 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

I'm tellin ya, its a control run in WAY WAY out there land that doesn't deliver to MBY so I dont like it.  

Folks, models are to be used as a tool, not a friggn snow gauge. 

But the worst part was it did deliver him about 25% more than his climo snow for the whole season in like a 4 week period and he was upset because someone else got a little more. 

And he is in the other thread wanting to punt January 20 on every year because of the sun angle and melting. 

[poolz1]

2 minutes ago, frd said:

To balance things on the darker side as seeing all options is important lets hopew this progression does not happen because if it does then forget about Jan and how knows what the consequences will be. 

Hopefully this is incorrect due to reasons discussed the last several days.

We want progression to better phases not a return to phase 6. 

  

 

 

I saw this and thought the same thing....fortunately, the MJO forecasts out in time have been pretty dismal.  Especially the GEFS ...

[pasnownut]

Just now, frd said:

To balance things on the darker side as seeing all options is important lets hopew this progression does not happen because if it does then forget about Jan and how knows what the consequences will be. 

Hopefully this is incorrect due to reasons discussed the last several days.

We want progression to better phases not a return to phase 6. 

  

 

 

I read yesterday that someone was concerned about a return to 6.  Fortunately we have a little time to see a correction into 7, so we can finally get this winter going.  

I cant take much more of all of the cliff hangers in here.  It's depressing sure, but man it mucks up a thread. 

[nj2va]

2 minutes ago, frd said:

To balance things on the darker side as seeing all options is important lets hopew this progression does not happen because if it does then forget about Jan and how knows what the consequences will be. 

Hopefully this is incorrect due to reasons discussed the last several days.

We want progression to better phases not a return to phase 6. 

  

 

 

Hopefully that's wrong.  The Euro consistently brings MJO into the COD so hopefully that's incorrect too.  It seems the longer range MJO forecasts have been pretty bad across the guidance so hopefully that's at play here.

[pasnownut]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

But the worst part was it did deliver him about 25% more than his climo snow for the whole season in like a 4 week period and he was upset because someone else got a little more. 

And he is in the other thread wanting to punt January 20 on every year because of the sun angle and melting. 

As I'm older than you, I just don't have it in me to help the young weenies off the ledge.  It's too much work in this I see therefore I want / instant gratification era we live in.  Weather and related maps have been doing this for uh......EVER.  Yep, it sucks.....get used to it, or get over it.  Kudos to you....and any others that can continually talk em back away from the deep meteorological abyss.  

[anotherman]

It’s all my fault. I bought this in mid December.

[frd]

5 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Hopefully that's wrong.  The Euro consistently brings MJO into the COD so hopefully that's incorrect too.  It seems the longer range MJO forecasts have been pretty bad across the guidance so hopefully that's at play here.

Just presenting it , does not change my thoughts of a good shift to a better pattern.

I agree what was posted here,  that the MJO forecasts at this time are very hard to make. A lot for models to digest. At this current time you have significant events taking place in the NH that are preventing getting a clearer outcome.  One outcome wrong makes all other outcomes possibly incorrect. 

Plus, not sure if discussed or whether this is relevant maybe a MET can comment but the partial government shut down means certain weather tools are not available right now.  

[CAPE]

Meanwhile WB is still in progress trying to spit out the 0z EPS panels. I wonder if it will finish before the 12z run initializes.

[showmethesnow]

3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Meanwhile WB is still in progress trying to spit out the 0z EPS panels. I wonder if will finish before the 12z run initializes.

At the rate it is going I would say no.

If this becomes a habit in the coming days I will definitely be dropping WB. Bad enough they have had issues with the GFS suite for a few years now, and it has only gotten worse, but if we are going to now have to deal with an F'ed up Euro what is the point in shelling out the money?

[psuhoffman]

33 minutes ago, frd said:

I recommend this video JB video, no fluff, no climate change, just great info. A long and very detailed video. Almost like a seasonal summary, but on video.  

Take away, well, flip the SOI and move the MJO and all things will fall into place. 

The MJO is simply the biggest player now it seems. Causing the AO to spike  up, a positive SOI of over 18, a lot of atmospheric energy flying around the NH, etc.  

But, when the hammer comes you will know it. 

https://www.weatherbell.com/#icon

 

I'm not thrilled to have JB on my side. I'm about as big a jb basher as there is. He is biased, hypes, and is stubborn so you don't ever know for sure if he really believes what he is saying or if he simply is doing his not back down thing. 

But I'll begrudgingly admit he was consistent that it would be warm late December and early January and he has been consistently saying it would get colder after Jan 15 for many of the same reasons others have stated so I can't criticize his winter forecast this year since it was basically the same as mine. If he goes down I go down. 

That mjo is troubling. The Canadian has the loop also. I'm starting to wonder if this ssw isn't hurting more than it will help. There is a correlation between sswe and an enhanced mjo in warm phases. I'm not sure which is the cause vs effect though. But if the mjo is being enhanced into warm phases and killing what was a good pattern otherwise...and then the effects of the sswe don't help us...either it doesn't propagate down or it impacts the troposphere in a way that doesn't do us much good...than in effect it actually killed what was shaping up to be a good pattern on its own. This is why I'm not a fan of the strat stuff. Even when they do happen and do propagate, they often don't do us any good wrt snow anyways. It's a whole lot of speculation for very rarely any payoff. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

But the worst part was it did deliver him about 25% more than his climo snow for the whole season in like a 4 week period and he was upset because someone else got a little more. 

And he is in the other thread wanting to punt January 20 on every year because of the sun angle and melting. 

I know this is perhaps a bit off topic in this particular thread, but I saw that "punting Jan. 20" comment and your correct reply that we'd miss a large percentage of our normal climo snow if we ignored anything after that date!  Well, off the top of my head in the time since I've been here (since 2001), here's what we'd miss if we "ended" winter on Jan. 20:

• Early Feb. 2003 (moderate event)
• Feb. 16-17, 2003 (PD-II)
• Late Feb. 2003 (another moderate event to close out that winter)
• Feb. 11-12, 2006
• Feb. 2007 (remarkable cold and some snow...though no huge storms we just missed a ton from Valentine's Day event, but did get a lot of sleet/ice)
• Mar. 1-2, 2009
• Jan. 30, 2010 (6-8" cold powder here)
• Feb. 2, 2010 (quick warning-level event on Groundhog's Day)
• Feb. 5-6, 2010; Feb. 9-10, 2010 (need we say more?)
• Mar. 25, 2013
• Feb. 12-13, 2014
• Mar. 2-3, 2014
• Mar. 16-17, 2014
• Mar. 25, 2014
• Feb. 2015 (even colder than Feb. 2007, with a couple of solid events in that month)
• Mar. 5, 2015
• Jan. 22-23, 2016
• Mar. 2017 (can't remember exact date, around the 20th, snow followed by a layer of 3" sleet)
• Mar. 22, 2018

I know there are others in the time before 2001, and these are only the "most significant" events post 2001 that I'm recalling here (may be others I neglected to mention too).  But you get the idea!  So yeah, that sun angle and melting really sucked I tell ya!  Who needed Snowmageddon anyhow?? 

(ETA:  D'oh!  Missed a couple of obvious ones and added them...including from 2010, can't believe I forgot that!)

[frd]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That mjo is troubling. The Canadian has the loop also. I'm starting to wonder if this ssw isn't hurting more than it will help. There is a correlation between sswe and an enhanced mjo in warm phases. I'm not sure which is the cause vs effect though. But if the mjo is being enhanced into warm phases and killing what was a good pattern otherwise...and then the effects of the sswe don't help us...either it doesn't propagate down or it impacts the troposphere in a way that doesn't do us much good...than in effect it actually killed what was shaping up to be a good pattern on its own. This is why I'm not a fan of the strat stuff. Even when they do happen and do propagate, they often don't do us any good wrt snow anyways. It's a whole lot of speculation for very rarely any payoff. 

Weather is so complex. And I recall like it was just yesterday that you said about the strat hurting rather than helping at times,  and the ROI in tracking it does not pay snowfall dividends. 

For me I will just sit back and watch. Sure it is a concern ( MJO loop back ) , but in our neck of the woods there is always some concern every year it seems. 

In addition Don posted something rather interesting over in his forum about the SOI being so positive and I will paste that below. 

It truly does seem though the main global players in the NH right now are the MJO and the strat event. And I know there is a relationship there. Angular momentum increasing and a very difficult progression going forward. 

But, history shows massive flips to the better do happen under the same states we are in now. Fascinating hobby, yet frustrating as hell sometimes.       

 

 

 

[frd]

From @donsutherland1  post to @psuhoffman regarding the SOI

This morning, the SOI rocketed higher to +18.23. It has now been positive 36 out of the last 39 days. Despite the ongoing El Niño event, the December SOI average will very likely be positive. Since 1950, there were only 3 positive December cases during an El Niño event: 1965, 1968, and 1969. All three cases were followed by -10.0 or below January averages. All three prior SOI cases also featured severe Atlantic blocking (monthly AO average of -2.000 or below).

[EastCoast NPZ]

41 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

But the worst part was it did deliver him about 25% more than his climo snow for the whole season in like a 4 week period and he was upset because someone else got a little more. 

And he is in the other thread wanting to punt January 20 on every year because of the sun angle and melting. 

Dude, that map had me at like 18 to 20.  Climo here (OKV) is about 30".  

Doesn't matter, its surely wrong anyway. 

And I never said Jan 20, you are putting words in my mouth.  I would put that line more towards valentines than Jan.

[pasnownut]

10 minutes ago, frd said:

From @donsutherland1  post to @psuhoffman regarding the SOI

This morning, the SOI rocketed higher to +18.23. It has now been positive 36 out of the last 39 days. Despite the ongoing El Niño event, the December SOI average will very likely be positive. Since 1950, there were only 3 positive December cases during an El Niño event: 1965, 1968, and 1969. All three cases were followed by -10.0 or below January averages. All three prior SOI cases also featured severe Atlantic blocking (monthly AO average of -2.000 or below).

Said it earlier, AO has been our friend in the last few years, so hey, I'm fine if that's how we get snow.  

[CAPE]

11 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Said it earlier, AO has been our friend in the last few years, so hey, I'm fine if that's how we get snow.  

A -AO is clearly important for chances of above average snowfall in this region. Having a Nino plus sustained HL blocking(-AO/NAO) is usually a winner.

[aldie 22]

A delayed winter can still be quite awesome...it can also be continuously delayed and there doesn't have to be any scientific fact backing that or model runs it is completely legitimate to have lived in a certain area for 50 years and simply have a feel for how things are progressing. That said I'm on the February 20th train until it derails 

[stormtracker]

2 hours ago, Ji said:

problem is we cant seem to get two good runs in a row....everytime we make progress like the 12z eps...we take a step back

The winter so far has been a step back. <cringes>

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

I continue to love this long range look over the Aleutian Islands region. 

This is a true Winter pattern, and the last time it was shown so consecutively was November. (I don't think the forecast has anything to do with Jan 15th El Nino climo).

On the reverse side, we've only had 3 -NAO bursts since April (including forecasted one)

 

[LP08]

Gfs might try to get frisky at 12z.  More consolidation of the Southern wave with a better cold press...

[stormtracker]

Just now, leesburg 04 said:

A delayed winter can still be quite awesome...it can also be continuously delayed and there doesn't have to be any scientific fact backing that or model runs it is completely legitimate to have lived in a certain area for 50 years and simply have a feel for how things are progressing. That said I'm on the February 20th train until it derails 

I'm with you.  No need to be overly pessimistic and whiny as this train wreck of a forum has been, but your mention of experience is a good one.  In my experience, delayed is denied. But, I'm still in wait and see mode.

[stormtracker]

Just now, LP08 said:

Gfs might try to get frisky at 12z.  More consolidation of the Souther wave with a better cold press...

I doubt it.  The problem is the GFS doesn't know whether to sh*t or sing from one run to the other.  Even if something magical happen, it's precarious and will be gone on the next run.  The run to run shifts at h5 are comical.

[LP08]

Just now, stormtracker said:

I doubt it.  The problem is the GFS doesn't know whether to sh*t or sing from one run to the other.  Even if something magical happen, it's precarious and will be gone on the next run.  The run to run shifts at h5 are comical.

Only a few more runs til it cuts to Chicago

[aldie 22]

Best part about a delayed winter though is if it kicks in it feels great because it packs a lot into a shorter window making it more exciting. I remain hopeful but skeptical 

[stormtracker]

Just now, LP08 said:

Only a few more runs til it cuts to Chicago

Honestly, I wouldn't be shocked.  But seriously, watch the H5 at 18z be vastly different.  And even if something happens this run, it's too warm.

[LP08]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I doubt it.  The problem is the GFS doesn't know whether to sh*t or sing from one run to the other.  Even if something magical happen, it's precarious and will be gone on the next run.  The run to run shifts at h5 are comical.

I mean normally this H5 look would be exciting but there is zero cold air any where...

 

[stormtracker]

Just now, LP08 said:

I mean normally this H5 look would be exciting but there is zero cold air any where...

 

Correct.  I hope it just slides out to sea.  I'm tired of all of this rain.