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December/January Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr

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Ggem nails us....also looks way better at 500mb


Really? I know if this ended up being the final result you’d cancel winter.

2b533f0376addd59738caf99fc4e82db.jpg

All jokes aside I’m liking the fact that the period looks more interesting. Coincides with the ensembles looking nicer too. I’d really love to see some snow in Arlington rather than Charlottesville!
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Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

 


Really? I know if this ended up being the final result you’d cancel winter.

2b533f0376addd59738caf99fc4e82db.jpg

All jokes aside I’m liking the fact that the period looks more interesting. Coincides with the ensembles looking nicer too. I’d really love to see some snow in Arlington rather than Charlottesville!

 

The biggest problem I see so far....it’s the GGEM! Should be called the GAGM. 

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Just now, Ji said:
1 minute ago, yoda said:
Remember when you used to complain about the GGEM being terrible lol
GFS is a failure

When the ggem is only model that gives us snow....but when it joins the euro...makes me feel like there is a possiblity

the 12z EURO gave us snow?  I must have missed it

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Maybe a positive that GGEM and GFS both agree on the general idea of a storm staying under us during that timeframe? I'm more than happy to see anything other than yet another GL cutter.

Main difference I can see is how much cold air we have to work with. GFS has the 850s going up into NY.

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2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Lol that it shows D.C. more then double climo snow in just the next 6 weeks and you take away that. 

Lol. Yeah, but what I see is that the model is keying on 2 likely target zones in the coming heart of winter: one is to our NNE, and the other is to our S.  I dont pay any attention to snow totals on those maps, just general locations.  And I don't like either of those locations.

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Fv-3 delivers a stalled LP around the 9th which is either cut off or just  blocked for 2 days. 500's look nice for that storm.  Not only that, FV-3 has snow on our doorstep on Jan 3rd, just as NAO is supposed to  go positive. Well we have a couple of possibilities to track, at least till the 12z runs.

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5 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Lol. Yeah, but what I see is that the model is keying on 2 likely target zones in the coming heart of winter: one is to our NNE, and the other is to our S.  I dont pay any attention to snow totals on those maps, just general locations.  And I don't like either of those locations.

That wasn't an ensemble mean. It was the control run. We got hit by 3 warning events and a couple minor ones. Western NC was higher because there was one big southern slider in there.  New England got more because they are New England. Your reading too much into it. It was a great run and your upset because you weren't the bullseye. 

Ive got a dose of harsh reality for you. We are almost never the bullseye.  Years like 1987 and 2010 come around once every 20 years. 

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

That wasn't an ensemble mean. It was the control run. We got hit by 3 warning events and a couple minor ones. Western NC was higher because there was one big southern slider in there.  New England got more because they are New England. Your reading too much into it. It was a great run and your upset because you weren't the bullseye. 

Ive got a dose of harsh reality for you. We are almost never the bullseye.  Years like 1987 and 2010 come around once every 20 years. 

I'm not upset over a long-range control run.  I put the chances of any model ensemble being right at that range right up there with Dak Prescott leading the Cowboys to the Super Bowl, much less a control run.  I'm simply amused that we get jackpotted by that slim precip minimum while there are jacks to our NNE and (again) S.

You are totally correct; rarely do we ever jackpot.

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