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December/January Medium/Long Range Discussion

WinterWxLuvr

By WinterWxLuvr,
in Mid Atlantic

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That bothered me some too. But I really suspect it's temporary. You can tell ridging is attempting to develop under the PV and is pressing and over time should dislodge that enough for what we need. That one stick is really all that's between the look we are getting and really good. 

Additionally I take some comfort that over the years when guidance is insistent in a specific look coming often it will be rushed and we have to wait longer but eventually it usually does materialize. The last couple years when the initial progred flip was a week of two into February that delay was a winter killer. The pattern did eventually get favorable but not until march and too late to save winter. If this pattern gets delayed from early January to late January that's not as problematic to our snow prospects. 

We should know in 2 weeks. 

18z gefs just showed a progression that is basically identical to week 3 on the weeklies. Lol. 

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_65.png

 

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nj2va

nj2va

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, I wasn't implying Jan was a bust. Only the next week looks particularly ugly. Beyond that looks fine. I was posting more big picture that if we don't get a stable favorable pattern in place before the end of Jan that it will be tough to have a big year. 

I think some people forget that “fine” in January isn’t a shutout since we can back into an event when its not a perfectly ideal setup.  I know you know this but sometimes a good reminder for others.  

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cbmclean

cbmclean

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Many of us have been following your updates. Excellent read as always. Thanks!

PSU, I am curious as to your view of Isotherm's opinion that the atmospheric base state promoted a cold december abset the PV disturbance.  Earlier today I think you mentioned that later December warmth was highly common in El Ninos.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Hello HL blocking. Thats quite a change from the 12z look.

12z had a minority group of members that tanked the AO. Looks like 18z has more. Lol

That's really what would put me at total ease. Get the damn AO negative and hold it there for 6 weeks and we'll snow. Also good odds that we'll get one or more big storms. 

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

12z had a minority group of members that tanked the AO. Looks like 18z has more. Lol

That's really what would put me at total ease. Get the damn AO negative and hold it there for 6 weeks and we'll snow. Also good odds that we'll get one or more big storms. 

Reading Isotherm's update reinforces my optimism that we will get there. Seeing all that red up top @ h5 on Happy Hour GEFS gives me a warm and fuzzy feeling. 

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frd

frd

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

12z had a minority group of members that tanked the AO. Looks like 18z has more. Lol

That's really what would put me at total ease. Get the damn AO negative and hold it there for 6 weeks and we'll snow. Also good odds that we'll get one or more big storms. 

Bob, I know that's your favorite indice, right ?

Dive the AO and keep er down and we will be happy here.   

Maybe we start to see the seeds planted over the next 5 to 10 days re the - AO, and actually see the favored pattern Isotherm is talking about come to fruition.  

Would be awesome by Jan 10 th we see everything line up so we can feel more secure about the remainder of Jan.  

Ironic too that the strat caused issues in December with the colder and snowier outcome he predicted. We should have gotten KU ed.   

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

PSU, I am curious as to opinion of his view that the atmospheric base state promoted a cold december abset the PV disturbance.  Earlier today I think you mentioned that later December warmth was highly common in El Ninos.

Isotherm is more the expert. But I do agree the winter was showing it's hand some early and absent the mjo wave and or the ssw we were looking good. 

But it's more complicated imo. There seems to be some correlation between a ssw and warm periods at the initiation. There is also a correlation with a ssw and warm mjo phases. And there seems to be a correlation between warm mjo phases and late December in a nino. But correlation and causation are two different things. We can observe a relationship but we don't fully understand the causation.  So maybe the warm up was inevitable due to some underlying relationship with the nino that is yet not understood. 

But none of that is important to the point of what will happen going forward as the effects of the warm mjo phases and the initiation of the ssw come off. I agree the effect should be a reversion to a colder more favorable pattern for snow over the mid Atlantic. 

 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

12z had a minority group of members that tanked the AO. Looks like 18z has more. Lol

That's really what would put me at total ease. Get the damn AO negative and hold it there for 6 weeks and we'll snow. Also good odds that we'll get one or more big storms. 

The progression isn't delayed it's just we're impatient. I remember a couple weeks who we wanted to see the start of the flip towards a good pattern by New Years. We are now. No question the evolution in January is stepping towards better. But I understand being impatient. Feels like forever since that snow in November. 

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
Just now, psuhoffman said:

The progression isn't delayed it's just we're impatient. I remember a couple weeks who we wanted to see the start of the flip towards a good pattern by New Years. We are now. No question the evolution in January is stepping towards better. But I understand being impatient. Feels like forever since that snow in November. 

I'll only get impatient if we get to Jan 20th or so without a flake and continued hostile pattern on the panels into early Feb. The it becomes a pure race against the clock and that always sucks.

I never expected a big winter. I went below climo in the snow contest. One storm can blow my guess out of the water of course but I didn't go in with hopes of wall to wall and massive snow piles. 

I'm still confident we get some sort of event before mid Jan. Maybe more than one event.... Would be nice to have something to track again. Even a 1-3 that works out would be pretty fun at this point. Having absolutely nothing to track for weeks on end really sucks. All we can do is regurgitate muddy long lead panels and pass time. I'm already over that S

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frd

frd

Posted
Posted

Interesting thread.  I had posted earlier about the GOES and the GFS. 

Actually I was most surprised to see her last comment that we may indeed get some clarity in a few days about coupling.

 
These differences are almost certainly due to what each forecasts thinks will transpire in the troposphere, since the stratospheric response is fairly similar in each forecast (GEOS actually has a slightly weaker wind reversal).
4:24 PM - 27 Dec 2018
 
    • e
      Replying to @DrAHButler

      Do you think the models will finally come into agreement on a solution? I do not remember seeing such a wide array of solutions in the medium to long range. I know the stratospheric warming probably has something to do with the model chaos. Curious to hear your thoughts.

       
    •  
      Replying to @DrAHButler

      In your experience which is more reliable in the coupling? GFS was actually quite poor in the whole SSW event, and usually GEOS does pretty well)

       
       
       
       

    • Thanks for the answer. We should know in the coming days.


       

 

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Ji

Ji

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

I'll only get impatient if we get to Jan 20th or so without a flake and continued hostile pattern on the panels into early Feb. The it becomes a pure race against the clock and that always sucks.

I never expected a big winter. I went below climo in the snow contest. One storm can blow my guess out of the water of course but I didn't go in with hopes of wall to wall and massive snow piles. 

I'm still confident we get some sort of event before mid Jan. Maybe more than one event.... Would be nice to have something to track again. Even a 1-3 that works out would be pretty fun at this point. Having absolutely nothing to track for weeks on end really sucks. All we can do is regurgitate muddy long lead panels and pass time. I'm already over that S

I didnt see this but what made you against the grain and call for a less than normal snowy winter. Of course your guess was aided by tremendous luck as we had no business missing a Mid Atlantic Historical snowstorm

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BTRWx's Thanks Giving

BTRWx's Thanks Giving

Posted
Posted

I highly recommend following Mike Thomas on Facebook.  His posts about patterns and storm development are so informative!  What he sees is the fact that models are signaling a huge NAO swing from negative to positive late next week and so far this winter/fall every other transition produced a storm!  With the euro weeklies trending towards a colder look, maybe we'll squeeze something out!

I'm stealing his graphic.

image.thumb.png.05214d07d9b67fa452be670e4a383a2a.png

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

I'll only get impatient if we get to Jan 20th or so without a flake and continued hostile pattern on the panels into early Feb. The it becomes a pure race against the clock and that always sucks.

I never expected a big winter. I went below climo in the snow contest. One storm can blow my guess out of the water of course but I didn't go in with hopes of wall to wall and massive snow piles. 

I'm still confident we get some sort of event before mid Jan. Maybe more than one event.... Would be nice to have something to track again. Even a 1-3 that works out would be pretty fun at this point. Having absolutely nothing to track for weeks on end really sucks. All we can do is regurgitate muddy long lead panels and pass time. I'm already over that S

 

40 minutes ago, Ji said:

I didnt see this but what made you against the grain and call for a less than normal snowy winter. Of course your guess was aided by tremendous luck as we had no business missing a Mid Atlantic Historical snowstorm

I'm curious too. Not critical, I respect your opinion and always looking to broaden my understanding...curious if there were factors I missed or weighted differently. 

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Wonderdog

Wonderdog

Posted
Posted
42 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

I highly recommend following Mike Thomas on Facebook.  His posts about patterns and storm development are so informative!  What he sees is the fact that models are signaling a huge NAO swing from negative to positive late next week and so far this winter/fall every other transition produced a storm!  With the euro weeklies trending towards a colder look, maybe we'll squeeze something out!

I'm stealing his graphic.

image.thumb.png.05214d07d9b67fa452be670e4a383a2a.png

Late next week, the AO may plummet or it may not. The chart is more or less evenly split on what it does. Hope it picks down.

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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, frd said:

Bob, I know that's your favorite indice, right ?

Dive the AO and keep er down and we will be happy here.   

Maybe we start to see the seeds planted over the next 5 to 10 days re the - AO, and actually see the favored pattern Isotherm is talking about come to fruition.  

Would be awesome by Jan 10 th we see everything line up so we can feel more secure about the remainder of Jan.  

Ironic too that the strat caused issues in December with the colder and snowier outcome he predicted. We should have gotten KU ed.   

I think the AO is a favorite because both it and the EPO by and large have been one of the major factors in saving winter over the last few years for us.  Little to no help from the NAO or SSW Voodoo Dolls (although you all know I am intrigued by the SSW). AO is definitely a way to get it done round here. 

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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, frd said:

Courtesy 33andrain.com via Earthlight ,  I like !   

Mentioned the weeklies earlier, but the big thing to note here is the rapidly falling AO and NAO around mid month. This is a steady signal that has increased in time as we have drawn closer.

 

853EFFF9-2B7B-47C0-A1E2-01BE11D2DB2A.png64CF746E-6348-44B8-ADE8-3EFD55107656.png 

  •  

How do we know it ain't another -AO ghost like we've chased the last few years? (That never materializes, like @Bob Chillsaid)

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nj2va

nj2va

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

How do we know it ain't another -AO ghost like we've chased the last few years? (That never materializes, like @Bob Chillsaid)

We don’t but guidance consistently points to a -AO building in January...seems many mets are favoring the AO to go negative.  The drop starts in about 9-10 days so we’ll know soon enough.  

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cbmclean

cbmclean

Posted
Posted
43 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

Yea if i get 30 inches but somebody in NC gets 40 inches I’m out lol

You guys do know that there are areas in the NC high country that average 50+" right?  Mt Mitchell is just over 90".  Not as good as far western Maryland, but still respectable.

Of course we over in the low-lands are lucky if we see 5" in a year.

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