December/January Medium/Long Range Discussion

[RevWarReenactor]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

If your point that forecasts can be wrong I'm well aware. I've had plenty go wrong.  But if guidance, analogs, and timing of the mjo all agree what should we base the forevast on?  And most have been adjusting the mjo for the models continued over deamplification. Finally if a forecast was for the pattern to become snowy towards the end of January and February and nothing has happened yet to indicate that is going wrong why would I or anyone else start to doubt it based on it not snowing now when we didn't think it would be snowing now?  It would be different if I had predicted it to be cold and snow a lot in the first half of winter and I keep kicking the can down the road to stall. But my target dates have been consistent. See the start of a step progression towards colder early January. See a better pattern set in mid to late month. 

Weeklies still show that. Cfs weeklies show it. Ensembles show the genesis of the progression.  Mjo is heading towards cold phases or at least out of warm ones mid month. PV is weak. Analogs suggest this is normal. So why would I panic or abandon that forecast now?  Based on what evidence?  The emotional reaction to lack of snow when it wasn't supposed to be snowing? 

You have been consistent for a few weeks now. You've been highlighting the Jan 20th period and beyond.

However prior to that, you were thinking that is was likely we'd get a storm before Xmas. Most late Nov forecasts were for a very snowy winter. That hasn't worked obviously.

Either way, we've been down this road before. Last year at this very time, we were talking the "delayed but not denied" and it didn't work out. The "delayed but not denied" game hasn't worked for us for at least a few years. Everything is always 2+ weeks away.

[Jandurin]

Prior when?

Because there was a pretty huge snowstorm just south of us not too long ago.

And a snowstorm in November.

[nj2va]

42 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I didn't take it personally. But I'm questioning why so many are acting like the majority of seasonal forecasts that said snowy second half of winter should be doubted now or are in trouble based on it not snowing during a period those forecasts didn't think it would snow?  What has happened so far that indicates a forecast for a snowy second half of winter is wrong?  

This.  I’m not following the logic of the vocal few here who keep saying that because it didn’t snow in December, we’re doomed the rest of winter...when in fact this is how those who predicted an AN (snowfall) winter said it would go...pattern flip in January with a backloaded winter.  I know people panic when they hear backloaded because ‘OMG, WE ALWAYS FAIL HERE IN THE MID-ATLANTIC...IT NEVER WANTS TO SNOW HERE..WAAAAAH’ but I still think this is going along how the winter was forecasted.  And people need to stop the “it happens like this every winter where we say its always 2+ weeks away”.  No two winters are alike especially this winter compared to last year.  Let’s not forget that Ninos are typically backloaded anyways.  

It’s a little disappointing not to see any major threats materialize (yet) on the LR guidance but I think the pattern is starting to look pretty good at 500 so something tells me that we’ll see the surface respond soon (sounds like wishcasting but whatever).  

[RevWarReenactor]

5 minutes ago, Jandurin said:

Prior when?

Because there was a pretty huge snowstorm just south of us not too long ago.

And a snowstorm in November.

"South of us" doesn't count. 1-2 inches is not a snowstorm IMO.

[Jandurin]

1 minute ago, Mdecoy said:

"South of us" doesn't count. 1-2 inches is not a snowstorm IMO.

I disagree with all of what you said. I got more than 1-2 inches in November. The fact is there WAS a significant pre-xmas snowstorm and the bullseye was south of us.

[nj2va]

2 minutes ago, Mdecoy said:

"South of us" doesn't count. 1-2 inches is not a snowstorm IMO.

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

47 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Nothing has happened...actually that's kind of the point. It's not whether it will or won't but as you and most know the waiting can be the most difficult part...its not like you guys are talking about next week you're talking about almost another month from now. I think a little snow falling will calm some nerves...me...meh... I'm mostly busting C.A.P.E fortunately for me he gets it

Agree 100% with this. Nobody is saying anyone is wrong and nobody is pumping their chest saying they themselves are right. Especially given the current calendar date. My post about analogs, MJO, etc was more of a things dont always go as planned type of thing and definitely not a personal attack on you or your forecast. I'm VERY optimistic of a pattern flip based exactly on those indices etc I noted. I am also very skeptical at the same time as it is difficult to look at the current conditions and recent pattern history but have your mind tell you that change is definitely coming. 

[RevWarReenactor]

14 minutes ago, nj2va said:

 

You're right. Moment of weakness. I apologize.

[BristowWx]

15 minutes ago, Jandurin said:

I disagree with all of what you said. I got more than 1-2 inches in November. The fact is there WAS a significant pre-xmas snowstorm and the bullseye was south of us.

Agree. We need to consider our climo when saying 1-2 is not a snowstorm.  

[Bob Chill]

Hard to deny the personality of this winter doesn't want it to snow along the east coast so far. The whole coast from our area northward is a snow desert for late Dec. I'd be happy to see the NE get a storm even if we don't. Most of our flips to snow patterns start north of us first. 

[Maestrobjwa]

20 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Hard to deny the personality of this winter doesn't want it to snow along the east coast so far. The whole coast from our area northward is a snow desert for late Dec. I'd be happy to see the NE get a storm even if we don't. Most of our flips to snow patterns start north of us first. 

Well, at least we're all in it together...lol No painful "low bombs north of us" moments!

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

This wave doesn't really match the pattern of the year. It's either going to be way south surpressed or bigger. Every storm is 1". Probably suppressed. Usually when you see a wave on the GFS like this at this range it means something but not this time, it looks odd.

[aldie 22]

23 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Hard to deny the personality of this winter doesn't want it to snow along the east coast so far. The whole coast from our area northward is a snow desert for late Dec. I'd be happy to see the NE get a storm even if we don't. Most of our flips to snow patterns start north of us first. 

Duluth is having a nice winter

[frd]

18 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Hard to deny the personality of this winter doesn't want it to snow along the east coast so far. The whole coast from our area northward is a snow desert for late Dec. I'd be happy to see the NE get a storm even if we don't. Most of our flips to snow patterns start north of us first. 

Fascinating the reversal of snow cover, opposite of what you might expect to our North and West even in a Nino December.

feedback would argue more snow and mopre cold, typical Decembers after 2010 argue for warmer weather. 

The + SOI and the high amp MJO really throwing monkey wrenches into the models. The majority of the analogs still point to colder and more active. We wait and see what transpires. 

If anything the atmosphere is showing its lean towards the sudden and at times dramatic reversals that can happen. I for one still feel the severity of cold and snow is still on the table my only question is the duration. If the MJO cooperates you would logically conclude we get a decent period of what we are looking forward to.

My daughter is leaving today to go to VT. to snow board.  At least it is not brutal cold up there. 

 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Mdecoy said:

You have been consistent for a few weeks now. You've been highlighting the Jan 20th period and beyond.

However prior to that, you were thinking that is was likely we'd get a storm before Xmas. Most late Nov forecasts were for a very snowy winter. That hasn't worked obviously.

Either way, we've been down this road before. Last year at this very time, we were talking the "delayed but not denied" and it didn't work out. The "delayed but not denied" game hasn't worked for us for at least a few years. Everything is always 2+ weeks away.

Who was thinking last year was going to be good?  It was a Nina. We were hopeful that we could get lucky and score some snow at some point. And we did. But I don't know anyone (except jb) who predicted an above normal snow year. 

[Wonderdog]

Can I get a quick analysis of the depiction at hour 174 at the 500 vort level? With that yellow streak moving over us, why no precip? Are they just undeveloped pockets of energy?

[frd]

 

A great read and overview.

Interesting reference to the CFS below. it is the CFS versus the Pioneer, Euro and the Ukmet seasonals.

from 

https://simonleewx.com/2018/12/27/not-all-ssws-were-created-equal/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

Not all SSWs were created equal

 Simon Lee

3 hours ago

Non-downward propagating SSWs? 

Major stratospheric sudden warming events (SSWs) attract widespread attention because they are now known to have significant impacts on the tropospheric circulation (e.g. Baldwin and Dunkerton 2001, hereafter BD01). Anomalies in the stratospheric circulation (often expressed as the Northern Annual Mode (NAM) index, or polar cap geopotential height anomalies) propagate downwards through the stratosphere into the troposphere, rather like “dripping paint” (such as BD01 Fig. 2). A major SSW is associated with the development of a negative NAM in the stratosphere; the “typical” response is the development of a negative NAM (or the associated NAO/AO) in the troposphere ~10-14 days after the central date of the SSW (when the 10 hPa 60N zonal-mean zonal wind becomes easterly) which can persist for several months.

However, not all SSWs were created equal – and some SSWs do not strongly couple to the tropospheric circulation. A recent study by Karphechko et al. (2017) classified major SSWs as “downward propagating” (dSSW) or otherwise (nSSW) based on the 1000 hPa NAM index following the event, and found 43% were nSSW – i.e., not followed by a strong and persistently negative surface NAM. This is not a small fraction of SSWs, and the atmospheric evolution following the two types was found to be significantly different. 

Our perception of SSWs in recent years has been highly influenced by a relatively unusual clustering of vortex-split, downward-propagating events (Jan 2009, Feb 2010, Jan 2013 and Feb 2018) which all had similar tropospheric impacts (all 4 of those events were followed by an outbreak of snow/cold in the UK, for example). The most recent nSSW occurred in Feb 2008. Thus, the announcement of a major SSW – particularly on social media – has become synonymous with a specific weather pattern.

In the nSSW cases considered by Karpechko et al., the composite (their Fig. 1c) actually shows intermittently positive NAM in the troposphere following the SSW – with the sign of the NAM opposing between the lower stratosphere and the troposphere for ~40 days following the central date. This is very different to the picture of dripping -NAM anomalies into the troposphere that BD01 made famous (which is consistent with Karpechko et al.’s dSSW).

Composites of all major SSWs are influenced by the higher frequency of dSSW and the stronger circulation anomalies induced, but this work suggests we need to be wary of these stratospheric events which don’t strongly influence what happens beneath. However, forecast models often struggle to predict the downward propagation – so forecasting these events is troublesome. It also presents a communication problem, which current forecasts (see below!) suggest we may be about to run into: a major SSW could mean a significant reversal of the normal tropospheric circulation (with the potential for “Beast from the East”-type events in the UK), or it could mean very little (e.g. January 2002 following the non-downward propagating Dec 2001 SSW). Predicting these differences, and understanding the mechanisms involved, is an area of active research – and something I hope to address in my PhD work.

Do current forecasts suggest nSSW or dSSW?

As I write this, we’re in a tentative stage – the main stratospheric heat flux event has occurred, and the 60N zonal-mean zonal wind has reversed to easterlies in the upper stratosphere. However, at 10 hPa we’re still decelerating – with the event expected to become ‘major’ around Jan 1 (Fig. 1 & 2) if current forecasts are correct (inter-model agreement has substantially increased now the upper-stratospheric reversal is in the observations).  The event looks very likely to be first driven by a wave-1 displacement of the vortex towards Eurasia, with an increasing likelihoodo of a vortex split (wave-2) to then occur, with the dominant daughetr vortex over Eurasia and a smaller vortex over N America (interestingly, this is opposite to what happened in Feb 2018). However, agreement on the split evolution remains lower than the displacement.

Figure 1: Forecasts of the 10 hPa 60N zonal-mean zonal wind from 00Z December 27th. There is a good agreement between the GFS and its ensemble of a major SSW occurring around Jan 1st.

Figure 2: ECMWF operational forecast from 12Z December 26th for 12Z January 1st showing a major SSW. Source: http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/winterdiagnostics/. 

So, predicting the tropospheric impacts is a challenge when the stratospheric forecasts don’t agree! The spread in the GEFS forecasts beyond 10 days is very large – with some members showing a quick return to stratospheric westerlies whilst others flirt with record-strong easterlies. There’s even some indication of bifurcation in the ensemble at longer ranges (perhaps relating to whether or not a split occurs), which may render the ensemble mean of less use.

Despite the uncertainty, one aspect that has been relatively persistent is the absence of a signal for downward propagation in the deterministic GFS (Fig. 3) and the longer-range models such as CFSv2 (Fig. 4). Comparing Fig. 3 here with the nSSW composite in the Karpechko paper is striking – there are many similarities, including the weak -NAM before the main event and the ~day 10 tropospheric +NAM development. On its own, this screams nSSW – but of course is just a single deterministic forecast from one model.

Fi

 

 

 

The CFSv2 initially trended strongly towards a -NAO for January 2019 as the SSW signal grew – but this has since decayed and transitioned more towards an Atlantic ridge pattern (Fig. 4). The model clearly picked up on a major SSW occurring – but, like all forecast systems this time, has struggled to predict the type of SSW. There is currently no indication (Fig. 5) from the CFSv2 forecasts of a widespread hemispheric cold outbreak (a “warm Arctic-cold continents” pattern).

Figure 4: CFSv2 forecasts from Dec 1 – Dec 27 for January 2019 700 hPa geopotential height anomalies. Note the initial trend away from a +NAO towards a strong -NAO, before trending towards an “Atlantic ridge” pattern.

Figure 5: CFSv2 2m tempertaure anomaly forecast for January 2019 from an ensemble of forecasts launched between Dec 16-25. Base period 1999-2010. Source: http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/. 

My advice would be not to hold your breath for a “Beast from the East 2019 Edition”. But as predictability typically increases once a major SSW has occurred, we should gain a much better picture in the first few days of 2019.

Takeaway message: the impacts of SSWs are more complex than whether it is a displacement or a split, and the mere reversal of the 10 hPa 60N zonal wind doesn’t mean you’ll be shovelling snow 2 weeks later.

References

Baldwin, M. P., and T. Dunkerton, 2001: Stratospheric Harbingers of Anomalous Weather Regimes. Science, 294, 581-584, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1063315.

Karpechko, A. Y., P. Hitchcock, D. H. W. Peters, and A. Schneidereit, 2017: Predictability of downward propagation of major sudden stratospheric warmings. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 143, 1459-1470, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3017.

Categories: Communication, Stratosphere, SSW

 

 

 

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, Wonderdog said:

Can I get a quick analysis of the depiction at hour 174 at the 500 vort level? With that yellow streak moving over us, why no precip? Are they just undeveloped pockets of energy?

Positively tilted trough. Any precip will be way out in front and not along the axis. Anytime you see a positively tilted trough overhead don't expect anything going on at the surface. 

[mattie g]

1 hour ago, BristowWx said:

Agree. We need to consider our climo when saying 1-2 is not a snowstorm.  

That’s not a storm. It’s just a little snow.

[EastCoast NPZ]

25 minutes ago, frd said:

 

A great read and overview.

Interesting reference to the CFS below. it is the CFS versus the Pioneer, Euro and the Ukmet seasonals.

from 

https://simonleewx.com/2018/12/27/not-all-ssws-were-created-equal/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

Not all SSWs were created equal

 Simon Lee

3 hours ago

Non-downward 

Takeaway message: the impacts of SSWs are more complex than whether it is a displacement or a split, and the mere reversal of the 10 hPa 60N zonal wind doesn’t mean you’ll be shovelling snow 2 weeks later.

References

Baldwin, M. P., and T. Dunkerton, 2001: Stratospheric Harbingers of Anomalous Weather Regimes. Science, 294, 581-584, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1063315.

Karpechko, A. Y., P. Hitchcock, D. H. W. Peters, and A. Schneidereit, 2017: Predictability of downward propagation of major sudden stratospheric warmings. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 143, 1459-1470, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3017.

Categories: Communication, Stratosphere, SSW

 

 

 

In other words, March will be rockin'.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Mdecoy said:

You have been consistent for a few weeks now. You've been highlighting the Jan 20th period and beyond.

However prior to that, you were thinking that is was likely we'd get a storm before Xmas. Most late Nov forecasts were for a very snowy winter. That hasn't worked obviously.

Either way, we've been down this road before. Last year at this very time, we were talking the "delayed but not denied" and it didn't work out. The "delayed but not denied" game hasn't worked for us for at least a few years. Everything is always 2+ weeks away.

In nevember I laid out the analogs and I was very clear that they indicated we had a chance at an early storm in December (and we did but it just missed) but that the majority of the analogs were pretty snowless until mid January and so a lack of snow early wasn't an indication things were going wrong. I expected we might get a cold period with a window for snow early and we did.  Now we are going through the typical crap late dec and early Jan nino period.

Just because it didn't snow in your yard doesn't erase the cold period from early November until about December 12th. I know all you care about is your yard but the weather doesn't give a crap about your yard. A great pattern doesn't mean snow in your yard. That pattern early December was great. We missed because of minor chaos driven factors not lining up. Bad luck. Not bad pattern. If that storm had hit this year would look exactly like 1957/8 or 209/10 right now. But overall from a longwave pattern pov it would be no different.  Next week we look to get a -nao but it won't produce snow. If so that wouldn't mean the -nao didn't happen or the guidance showing it was wrong. Your missing the big picture because all you are looking at is "did it snow in my yard".  

Put it another way... Charlottesville, Roanoke, and Richmond are all way above climo and only one more good storm from a great year. So somehow the pattern is great for them but crap for us?  If I showed you the patterns for a big storm in central VA vs DC you couldn't tell the difference in most cases at h5. The things that caused a 50 mile miss vs a hit can't be seen in a longwave pattern or from range. When you miss by 500 miles it's a bad pattern. When you miss by 50 miles it's bad luck.  

What about here. I had 7" in November. I've had a couple close misses since. A couple storms that were slightly too warm. I mixed a couple times. And the southern slider. So if I had been a couple degrees colder or that vort doesn't dive in at the wrong time during the southern storm I get one more snow and I'm sitting way above climo. Then it's a great pattern?  But because of bad luck it's a bad one?  The differences between this year and a year like 57/8, 02/3, or 09/10 has more to do with luck than pattern. If the one big storm in dec 09 had been suppressed this year would be ahead of that year right now!  

Finally getting a bad start in a Nina or neutral year is way different than a nino. We had this discussion in Jan 2015 also. Climo says bad starts are likely and big second half saves are also likely in a weak to moderate nino. That's not true in a Nina or neutral year. Although in a Nina climo does say our best chance at a significant single fluke snow event is march. And last 2 years that was true. One ended up a big sleet and the other was our best snow since Jan 16. So climo was correct the last 2 years in saying not to give up on getting snow. But the goal last year was simply to avoid a total fail. This year we should get a significant snowy period not just one fluke event. 

[frd]

2 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

In other words, March will be rockin'.

Well, you know I am hopeful for the turn to cold and stormier, but I admit,  I am a snow weenie and I like snow every week if possible. 

Remember  DT once mentioned this many years ago, if there is consensus on a forecast does that mean or equate to that forecast being more likely versus another forecast that has little concensus? 

Does concensus = model accuracy ?

Or, does it simply mean  increased odds of a correct outcome.  Every 578,000 times the single walnut in a pile of almonds is discovered. aka the CFS being correct or the model with the worst track record beating the euro. 

I remember a while back the GFS had remarkable consistency for a period of 5 days in regards to a Mid Atlantic snowstorm being modeled, versus the Euro which was Dr. No with little snowfall.   Well, who won, you guessed it, Dr No.      

I guess the morale is who knows, its hard to be certain when it comes to the weather at short range versus strat events and seasonal forecasts. Frustration is a natural emotion and in our hobby the ups and downs do wear on you. 

Again, I still feel we get into a better pattern, however, expect some fine tunning and adjustments.

As @psuhoffman just mentioned, we have a ton more in our favor this year versus last year. And, big ticket items are on the table too. 

[Bob Chill]

In a glimmer of good news... 12z GEFS resurrected the possible wave running the boundary on the 3rd-4th. 

[Maestrobjwa]

12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

In a glimmer of good news... 12z GEFS resurrected the possible wave running the boundary on the 3rd-4th. 

Was wondering about that...thought it looked a little closer on the FV3!

[WxUSAF]

14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

In a glimmer of good news... 12z GEFS resurrected the possible wave running the boundary on the 3rd-4th. 

 

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Was wondering about that...thought it looked a little closer on the FV3!

Yeah both GFS and FV3 are not far off.  GFS closer.  It's a good setup for us. Maybe the snow gods will finally show us favor.  

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

 

Yeah both GFS and FV3 are not far off.  GFS closer.  It's a good setup for us. Maybe the snow gods will finally show us favor.  

12z GEFS has a dozen variations of the wave working for our general area. The "new twist" compared to the previous bunch of runs is potential for NC or SVA. It's not an insignificant shift but I'll reserve any optimism until it's under 5 days and still shows promise. Thread the needles don't model well in the med/long range.  

[RevWarReenactor]

44 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

In nevember I laid out the analogs and I was very clear that they indicated we had a chance at an early storm in December (and we did but it just missed) but that the majority of the analogs were pretty snowless until mid January and so a lack of snow early wasn't an indication things were going wrong. I expected we might get a cold period with a window for snow early and we did.  Now we are going through the typical crap late dec and early Jan nino period.

Just because it didn't snow in your yard doesn't erase the cold period from early November until about December 12th. I know all you care about is your yard but the weather doesn't give a crap about your yard. A great pattern doesn't mean snow in your yard. That pattern early December was great. We missed because of minor chaos driven factors not lining up. Bad luck. Not bad pattern. If that storm had hit this year would look exactly like 1957/8 or 209/10 right now. But overall from a longwave pattern pov it would be no different.  Next week we look to get a -nao but it won't produce snow. If so that wouldn't mean the -nao didn't happen or the guidance showing it was wrong. Your missing the big picture because all you are looking at is "did it snow in my yard".  

Put it another way... Charlottesville, Roanoke, and Richmond are all way above climo and only one more good storm from a great year. So somehow the pattern is great for them but crap for us?  If I showed you the patterns for a big storm in central VA vs DC you couldn't tell the difference in most cases at h5. The things that caused a 50 mile miss vs a hit can't be seen in a longwave pattern or from range. When you miss by 500 miles it's a bad pattern. When you miss by 50 miles it's bad luck.  

What about here. I had 7" in November. I've had a couple close misses since. A couple storms that were slightly too warm. I mixed a couple times. And the southern slider. So if I had been a couple degrees colder or that vort doesn't dive in at the wrong time during the southern storm I get one more snow and I'm sitting way above climo. Then it's a great pattern?  But because of bad luck it's a bad one?  The differences between this year and a year like 57/8, 02/3, or 09/10 has more to do with luck than pattern. If the one big storm in dec 09 had been suppressed this year would be ahead of that year right now!  

Finally getting a bad start in a Nina or neutral year is way different than a nino. We had this discussion in Jan 2015 also. Climo says bad starts are likely and big second half saves are also likely in a weak to moderate nino. That's not true in a Nina or neutral year. Although in a Nina climo does say our best chance at a significant single fluke snow event is march. And last 2 years that was true. One ended up a big sleet and the other was our best snow since Jan 16. So climo was correct the last 2 years in saying not to give up on getting snow. But the goal last year was simply to avoid a total fail. This year we should get a significant snowy period not just one fluke event. 

Thanks PSU. I don't deny that late Nov and early December was a great pattern that broke the wrong way for us. It is why I was so disappointed. I was told, calm down its only December 8th, but the truth is, snow is so rare here, that any missed opportunity, is a huge missed opportunity. They simply don't come around often (outside of the 1 in 30 year winter).

I guess I am just projecting the last few years of "its only 2 weeks away" followed by it never coming, onto this year, and its wrong for me to do that,..................................... I hope. But I can sit here now and remember 12/27/2017, when we were sitting in the tundra and no precip, that the date of 20 Jan was identified as when things would reset. It is just flashbacks that have no scientific basis. So I apologize.

Hopefully we get something out of this year.

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Hard to deny the personality of this winter doesn't want it to snow along the east coast so far. The whole coast from our area northward is a snow desert for late Dec. I'd be happy to see the NE get a storm even if we don't. Most of our flips to snow patterns start north of us first. 

I think normally this is true, but I was curious if its also true in a nino so I went back and looked at some of the analog years where we had a pretty bad period the second half of December into January.  I used Boston as a judge.

1958:  Boston only had .1 in December.  Then they had 3.7" on January 7th, 1.4 on the 18th, and 1.3 on the 28th but overally they went into February with only 6.5" and way below average...then got snowy in February the same time we did.

1966: Boston only had 1.4" in December, then 4.3" on January 2nd a couple weeks before we got snowy...but other then that nothing until the same period where we had our epic run in late January.

1969: .4 in November, a few minor 1-2" events in December for 4.8 total.  .8 all of January so they went into February way below average like us with only about 6.5"

1978: .7 in November, a 2.8 and 1.9" event in early December then pretty much nothing until early January.  They did get snowy about a week before we did in January with a couple minor events before the snow blitz started. 

1987: 3" in November, 2.7 and .5 in early December, Then nothing until January, again they got snowy about a week before we did

2005: 3.9" in November, then nothing until December 26 with 6.6 and January 6th with 6.9, so they got snowy a few weeks before we did

2015: 2.3" in November, only .3 in December, 1.4" from a weak system that effected our area too in early January...then the snow blitz started there 1-24, and we started getting snowy then too only we didn't count it because we were getting 1-3" events when they were getting 1-3 feet lol. 

So the results are interesting...in general they were not getting blitzed with snow during our dead periods during ninos...but you are right they often started getting snow a week or two before us so seeing them get some snow soon would be a good thing.  But the fact they have not so far is not a bad sign either. 

It does bother me (a little) that they have had virtually nothing.  I think Logan is at .2 total so far.  That is a bit odd and not in line with the analog years.  They are typically below average so far but not by that much.  That could be a red flag.  But that could also just be bad luck.  The difference between a couple clippers or a minor 2-3" event and not is not that significant.  What is odd this year is when it has been cold the lack of clippers and minor waves.  It seems like everything is either a big juiced up monster storm or totally dry.  So the places that got hit, central PA (arguably my area in November) and southern VA got hit big.  And everywhere else is a snow desert.  No smaller systems to fill in the gaps.  87 was kind of like that, only a few of the big ones hit and so it didn't matter, but all of our snow came from 4 storms that year.  But ask NYC what they think of that year and they will puke.  They were the ones skunked that year.  The one storm they went to rain, and the others stayed mostly just to their south...and they remember one of our favorite years as a crap year.  Hopefully that isn't us this year. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

I think the other frustrating aspect at least for me is many of the pros on the board said we will be into a step up process if not by now then very soon  BUT even with that said there was confidence that guidance would start spitting out unicorn digital snowstorms and just some sick snow solutions but instead over the past 30 hours we have gone backwards.  It's a pit in the stomach when we cant even buy digital snow but ridiculous positive temp anomalies start showing up instead. Like we say the weather will do what it wants and it is what it is but it's still somewhat disheartening....and that's a fact.

[Ralph Wiggum]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That could be a red flag.  But that could also just be bad luck.  

So if they/we are having an anomalous string of 'bad luck' does that not raise a 'red flag'? Not trying to be philosophical  but they do go hand-in-hand no?