December/January Medium/Long Range Discussion

[aldie 22]

I sure am glad all I'm looking for is snow regardless of the pattern....I'd hate to have some artificial date attached to my name based on what some constantly changing model says. 

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

What time do the weeklies arrive? 

[aldie 22]

4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

What time do the weeklies arrive? 

Week 3 or 4

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

After looking at the overnight runs all I can say is...

Speaking of nothing to see.. paltry 15 day snowfall mean on the 0z ensembles. It gets better from here though 

[aldie 22]

Maybe it will be 60 on new year's day

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

This is exciting. We saw this blue over the North Pacific at 372-384hr a lot in October and November.

[Ji]

Maybe it will be 60 on new year's day

And jan 15th lol

[Ji]

After looking at the overnight runs all I can say is...

Remarkable how this always happens after your long post. They are very educational though so it's not in vein!

[aldie 22]

Just now, Ji said:

7 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Maybe it will be 60 on new year's day

And jan 15th lol

To be fair we don't know and of course nobody else does either

[CAPE]

14 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Maybe it will be 60 on new year's day

Went from low 40s a few runs ago to 55-60 the last 2-3 runs. Lockin' in on another cutter.

eta- I never thought the NYE +- a day period was ever a real threat. The period just beyond that (still) offers some potential.

[aldie 22]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

2 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

After looking at the overnight runs all I can say is...

Remarkable how this always happens after your long post. They are very educational though so it's not in vein!

Whew...if it was IN vein he would be dead

[CAPE]

8 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Whew...if it was IN vein he would be dead

Mastering homophones is hard!

[Ralph Wiggum]

26 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

This is exciting. We saw this blue over the North Pacific at 372-384hr a lot in October and November.

I thought that was in response to the typhoon over there no? 

[showmethesnow]

16 minutes ago, Ji said:

2 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

After looking at the overnight runs all I can say is...

Remarkable how this always happens after your long post. They are very educational though so it's not in vein!

The EPS is still throwing out some good looks IMO through the 15 days. It's just not hitting on/focusing on anything at this given time. So I wouldn't be giving up just yet. Could come down to where it is like the EPS flipped a switch from no snow to snow just like that as it starts keying on systems closer in range. Not really a big fan of the GEFS at this time though.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I thought that was in response to the typhoon over there no? 

It's El Nino related. 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said:

I sure am glad all I'm looking for is snow regardless of the pattern....I'd hate to have some artificial date attached to my name based on what some constantly changing model says. 

 

Maybe people based the date on analogs, mjo progression, and guidance all being in agreement.  That's why so many forecasts are similar. It's not model hugging. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Maybe people based the date on analogs, mjo progression, and guidance all being in agreement.  That's why so many forecasts are similar. It's not model hugging. 

Analogs-like snowflakes no 2 are exactly alike

MJO-somewhat a crapshoot. See Newman's post in the philly forum on MJO progression and how forecasts have been misjudging amplification and delaying our approach to the promised land

Guidance agreement-doesnt always mean they are right just because they agree. We can agree to be wrong...agreed? 

If forecasting was only this easy we would all be pros at this. It's what makes this hobby intriguing....the constant lessons we learn everyday.

[psuhoffman]

44 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

The EPS is still throwing out some good looks IMO through the 15 days. It's just not hitting on/focusing on anything at this given time. So I wouldn't be giving up just yet. Could come down to where it is like the EPS flipped a switch from no snow to snow just like that as it starts keying on systems closer in range. Not really a big fan of the GEFS at this time though.

This thread is getting full of really awful analysis right now...not even analysis, more just whining and lamenting lack of snow.

From range we can predict basic patterns but snow in a specific location is then up to details within a pattern that can't be seen until shorter leads. When the guidance showed a -nao +pna look the first week of January and then a building epo ridge people got excited that it would snow because those pattern drivers usually set up a favorable pattern for snow. It might still snow the January 3-5 period is close. But right now the PV looks too suppressive and so it probably won't. Because of that people are now misguidedly claiming the long range guidance was wrong about the pattern. Then extending that flawed analysis to cast doubt on the rest of winter.  

But the first week of January still looks like a -nao +pna then a building epo ridge. So the guidance nailed the pattern from range. Just because it doesn't snow doesn't make the guidance wrong about the pattern. Not every good look leads to snow. 

Problem is most aren't analyzing the pattern and how the guidance performed all they are analyzing is how much snow falls in their yard.  Problem is snow is very fluky.  Fairly minor details within a pattern that can change due to chaos determine the relatively small area that gets hit with snow by any specific storm.  That's something for short to medium range discussions. Snowfall in a specific spot has nothing to do with a long range pattern analysis. 

Going forward I agree the EPS looks better. Probably another good weeklies coming tonight. The day 15 actually is significantly better than the same time on the last weeklies run and much further along on the progression towards a -AO/nao. The pac looks good already. The gefs is more ambiguous but it has a lot to like also.  The trough southwest of Alaska, -epo. But it's shifting around with its progression run to run elsewhere. 0z was a good look over the Conus and nao 6z wasn't. But even 6z wasn't far off from getting to a good pattern. 

The pattern is actually good enough that I am surprised nothing is showing as a specific threat. That is annoying. But as I said above not all good patterns lead to snow.  

[Prestige Worldwide]

 

[psuhoffman]

25 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Analogs-like snowflakes no 2 are exactly alike

MJO-somewhat a crapshoot. See Newman's post in the philly forum on MJO progression and how forecasts have been misjudging amplification 

Guidance agreement-doesnt always mean they are right 

If forecasting was only this easy we would all be pros at this. It's what makes this hobby intriguing....the constant lessons we learn everyday.

If your point that forecasts can be wrong I'm well aware. I've had plenty go wrong.  But if guidance, analogs, and timing of the mjo all agree what should we base the forevast on?  And most have been adjusting the mjo for the models continued over deamplification. Finally if a forecast was for the pattern to become snowy towards the end of January and February and nothing has happened yet to indicate that is going wrong why would I or anyone else start to doubt it based on it not snowing now when we didn't think it would be snowing now?  It would be different if I had predicted it to be cold and snow a lot in the first half of winter and I keep kicking the can down the road to stall. But my target dates have been consistent. See the start of a step progression towards colder early January. See a better pattern set in mid to late month. 

Weeklies still show that. Cfs weeklies show it. Ensembles show the genesis of the progression.  Mjo is heading towards cold phases or at least out of warm ones mid month. PV is weak. Analogs suggest this is normal. So why would I panic or abandon that forecast now?  Based on what evidence?  The emotional reaction to lack of snow when it wasn't supposed to be snowing? 

[SnowGolfBro]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This thread is getting full of really awful analysis right now...not even analysis, more just whining and lamenting lack of snow.

From range we can predict basic patterns but snow in a specific location is then up to details within a pattern that can't be seen until shorter leads. When the guidance showed a -nao +pna look the first week of January and then a building epo ridge people got excited that it would snow because those pattern drivers usually set up a favorable pattern for snow. It might still snow the January 3-5 period is close. But right now the PV looks too suppressive and so it probably won't. Because of that people are now misguidedly claiming the long range guidance was wrong about the pattern. Then extending that flawed analysis to cast doubt on the rest of winter.  

But the first week of January still looks like a -nao +pna then a building epo ridge. So the guidance nailed the pattern from range. Just because it doesn't snow doesn't make the guidance wrong about the pattern. Not every good look leads to snow. 

Problem is most aren't analyzing the pattern and how the guidance performed all they are analyzing is how much snow falls in their yard.  Problem is snow is very fluky.  Fairly minor details within a pattern that can change due to chaos determine the relatively small area that gets hit with snow by any specific storm.  That's something for short to medium range discussions. Snowfall in a specific spot has nothing to do with a long range pattern analysis. 

Going forward I agree the EPS looks better. Probably another good weeklies coming tonight. The day 15 actually is significantly better than the same time on the last weeklies run and much further along on the progression towards a -AO/nao. The pac looks good already. The gefs is more ambiguous but it has a lot to like also.  The trough southwest of Alaska, -epo. But it's shifting around with its progression run to run elsewhere. 0z was a good look over the Conus and nao 6z wasn't. But even 6z wasn't far off from getting to a good pattern. 

The pattern is actually good enough that I am surprised nothing is showing as a specific threat. That is annoying. But as I said above not all good patterns lead to snow.  

Not sure why all the panic is going on in here. The late December early January period hasn’t looked great for snow for a while on the long range models. We can score in January even in a marginal pattern. Mid January has always been the time to watch. 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

I got these before govt shutdown happened. After Stratosphere warming at this time:

Jan 10

Jan 15

Jan 20

Jan 25

Jan 30

Feb 5

Feb 10

Feb 15

 

[aldie 22]

48 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Maybe people based the date on analogs, mjo progression, and guidance all being in agreement.  That's why so many forecasts are similar. It's not model hugging. 

I'm not questioning your skills 

[psuhoffman]

15 minutes ago, Prestige Worldwide said:

 

Great throwing out feb 2010 analogs won't raise expectations any lol. 

[Maestrobjwa]

10 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

Not sure why all the panic is going on in here. The late December early January period hasn’t looked great for snow for a while on the long range models. We can score in January even in a marginal pattern. Mid January has always been the time to watch. 

Hasn't looked great most of the time in our entire history...lol I mean, historically it don't happen often in this range (with 1996 being the only outlier since who knows how long)--so it's not like we haven't seen this before (even in our best winters). Too early to condemn any forecast, really!

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Great throwing out feb 2010 analogs won't raise expectations any lol. 

Yeah I really wish folks wouldn't do that...seems like 2009-10 gets abused as a hype-machine sometimes. Not that there's anything wrong with pointing out similarities, but...don't just toss that around haphazardly--too much weenie emotion, lol

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

I'm not questioning your skills 

I didn't take it personally. But I'm questioning why so many are acting like the majority of seasonal forecasts that said snowy second half of winter should be doubted now or are in trouble based on it not snowing during a period those forecasts didn't think it would snow?  What has happened so far that indicates a forecast for a snowy second half of winter is wrong?  

[JakkelWx]

It appears as if the EPS went to sh*t in the 11-15 day timeframe in regards to temps:

However, there continues to be high uncertainty on the EPS. I'm starting to think that it might be a blip, although he mentions that other models have trended this way as well.

We shall see!

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I didn't take it personally. But I'm questioning why so many are acting like the majority of seasonal forecasts that said snowy second half of winter should be doubted now or are in trouble based on it not snowing during a period those forecasts didn't think it would snow?  What has happened so far that indicates a forecast for a snowy second half of winter is wrong?  

Nothing has happened...actually that's kind of the point. It's not whether it will or won't but as you and most know the waiting can be the most difficult part...its not like you guys are talking about next week you're talking about almost another month from now. I think a little snow falling will calm some nerves...me...meh... I'm mostly busting C.A.P.E fortunately for me he gets it

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

34 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This thread is getting full of really awful analysis right now...not even analysis, more just whining and lamenting lack of snow.

From range we can predict basic patterns but snow in a specific location is then up to details within a pattern that can't be seen until shorter leads. When the guidance showed a -nao +pna look the first week of January and then a building epo ridge people got excited that it would snow because those pattern drivers usually set up a favorable pattern for snow. It might still snow the January 3-5 period is close. But right now the PV looks too suppressive and so it probably won't. Because of that people are now misguidedly claiming the long range guidance was wrong about the pattern. Then extending that flawed analysis to cast doubt on the rest of winter.  

But the first week of January still looks like a -nao +pna then a building epo ridge. So the guidance nailed the pattern from range. Just because it doesn't snow doesn't make the guidance wrong about the pattern. Not every good look leads to snow. 

Problem is most aren't analyzing the pattern and how the guidance performed all they are analyzing is how much snow falls in their yard.  Problem is snow is very fluky.  Fairly minor details within a pattern that can change due to chaos determine the relatively small area that gets hit with snow by any specific storm.  That's something for short to medium range discussions. Snowfall in a specific spot has nothing to do with a long range pattern analysis. 

Going forward I agree the EPS looks better. Probably another good weeklies coming tonight. The day 15 actually is significantly better than the same time on the last weeklies run and much further along on the progression towards a -AO/nao. The pac looks good already. The gefs is more ambiguous but it has a lot to like also.  The trough southwest of Alaska, -epo. But it's shifting around with its progression run to run elsewhere. 0z was a good look over the Conus and nao 6z wasn't. But even 6z wasn't far off from getting to a good pattern. 

The pattern is actually good enough that I am surprised nothing is showing as a specific threat. That is annoying. But as I said above not all good patterns lead to snow.  

This is an excellent analysis.  There you go again, PSU, using things like *gasp!* science and *gasp!* reasoning in this age of fake news and science denial!  Fetch the fainting couch and my smelling salts! 

In all seriousness, thanks for stating what you did here.  I get the frustration that many have here, now that December is all but a shutout in terms of snow.  But one cannot deny the overall pattern driving features were reasonably well forecast.  No way are those going to pick out potential individual shortwaves that might lead to an event here, nor are they "designed" to.  Any more than saying "we expect below normal temperatures for the DJF period as a whole" in the late fall would guarantee epic amounts of snow.  While it is true that the signals...-NAO/+PNA, etc...would lead one to infer higher chances of a good snow event in this area (or some snow of any kind, not necessarily a HECS), you can't guarantee it nor can you expect those signals to "see" individual smaller-scale events like that.

All we can do is hope the pattern drivers continue to look favorable, and likely sometime down the road it will result in a solid score (or two, or three, between now and mid-March).  Beats the hell out of looking at weeks of lousy pattern with no end in sight and absolutely no chance at all.