December/January Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Waiting on snow]

4 hours ago, CaryWx said:

errrr....not so craptastic for me. Looking at 8+ for snow so far his year and it is not even 2019

Maybe Jan and Feb will be good to you.

[Maestrobjwa]

25 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said:

Probably not necessary. My apologies. The point was no matter how bad you think you have it, someone always has it worse. If the pessimistic few are not happy with 20 inches per season they can send just half to me and I'd call it a winter. I'm sitting on 6 inches and really don't expect anymore. Anymore is just a bonus.

Just as an aside...there are years we don't hit that (sometimes we can go 2-3 years in a row without reaching that! 2 inch winters do exist around here too! The reason for the pessimism is because that magic number of 20 inches ain't been reached since 2016. Again, such a stretch isn't abnormal for this region, but...it can make some a bit more antsy). We live in a strange region...where it snows just enough for it to be impossible NOT to expect it like the south...but yet inconsistent enough to be disappointed in those below normal years as if we lived in the north. The Mid-Atlantic snow dichotomy...lol

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, cbmclean said:

So Mr PSU, just curious what is the climate like in your neck of the woods.  Your profile says you live in Manchester, I was wondering how the local climate affects your snow.

I am about a mile south of PA and at about 1050 ft in elevation at about the highest point along Parrs Ridge.  That makes my climo closer to Norwich CT or Providence RI than most of the mid atlantic. 

My average snowfall is about 40".  My median (better indicator of normal) is 33.5".  In the last 30 years 15 here were between 20 and 40" so that is what I consider typical.   8 years were above 40" which is a truly great year imo.    7 years were below 20 which is what I consider a total crap year. 

In effect my snowfall climo is about double most of the urban corridor.  BUT... even up here a pure all snow warning event is pretty rare.  Typically there is only one of those per year even up here in a normal year.  Only in those rare great years do I get a ton of those type storms up here.  A lot of my snow comes from nickel and dime 1-3" clippers and light events, or from the front or back end of storms that feature some mix or rain.  Only rarely do we get a flush hit of 5" plus of all snow even up here.  That is why I LOL at people who have half my median snowfall acting like that type of event is all they will accept and it needs to happen regularly for them to be happy.  They wouldn't even be happen up here most of the time with their expectations. 

[psuhoffman]

48 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

I’ve seen the “10 days away” before from early Dec to mid March and it never comes. The Vodka Cold Coming winter may be the most infamous and there’s 2 or 3 more.

I still think Jan is a minus temp month and did not call for much snow in long range.

 

It would be different if we expected the winter to be cold and snowy early but nino's typically start warm and most of the snow comes the second half.  Most of the people calling for above normal snowfall were saying it would come the second half of winter...so why are people acting like things are going wrong? 

[yoda]

That was a very boring 00z GFS

[psuhoffman]

Ok...just to make my case why the goal posts are not being moved and people need to be patient.  These were 10 of the best analogs being thrown around for various reasons but all were nino's with some similarities either in strength or evolution and some of these are better analogs than others but....all were used by some of the seasonal forecasts.

1958, 1964, 1966, 1969, 1978, 1987, 2003, 2005, 2010, 2015

All of them were above median snowfall winters at BWI.  Only 64, 2003, and 2010 were especially cold and snowy early.  Obviously we hoped for that but that would have been a fluke.  The majority of analogs did not have much snow early in the winter. 

1958 did have an 8" snowstorm the first week of December.  But then it warmed and was warm and virtually snowless until February.  Actually this year has some similarities, cold in November into early December...one storm that was a southern system, in this years case we just missed to the south but in the gran scheme that is very similar.  Then a flip to warmer.  The flip back didnt happen until very late January then from Feb 1 on BWI recorded snowfall events of 2.8", 15,5", 4.5", 8.2"

1966 BWI had only a trace until 1-22 then recorded 2.1", 7.2", 12.1", 2.7", 8.4"

1969 BWI recorded 4.3" in mid November...then warmed up until February.  The next snow of any consequence wasnt until February 8th.  From then on BWI recorded 3.3", 2,8", 5,4", 2.4"  That year was especially unlucky, the pattern was pretty good through all of February into early March, and there were several coastal storms, a couple mixed in the city and hurt accumulations and a couple came together late and really crushed just to our northeast but only effected our area with minor snowfalls.  It was a generally snowy 5 week period but we failed to really cash in with big totals.  But all the chances were Feb 8 on.

1978: BWI had only a T until 1-13 then recorded 3.3", 2.4", 5.6", 9.1", 2.8", 4.8"

1987: BWI had only .3" until January 22 then 12.3", 9.6", 2.8", 10.1"

2005 BWI had only .1 until January 19th then 1.1", 4.5", 1.9", 5.9", 4.2"... again this year was kind of unlucky.  The big storm in January was bigger just to our northeast, and the two storms late February were close to big events that just failed to come together perfectly. 

2015: BWI had a minor snowfall in November...then only 2.6" total from one clipper until January 21... then 2.6", 1", 2.6", 3.8", 6.3", 1.5", 6.2"

so there were a few fluke years where it was cold and snowy early but the significant majority of modoki nino years did not get snowy until the second half.  People aren't just saying that to make you feel better and stall to hope our winter forecasts aren't in trouble.  Its what the facts and data show.  It's why most of the forecasts said a back loaded winter. 

The flip to snowy happened between January 13th in the earliest year (1978) and February 8th in the latest (1969).  But they all flipped snowy at some point.   I have little doubt the pattern will become favorable for snow sometime in the next month or so.  After that it will be up to luck whether we get some snow and end up with an average type year like 1969 or 2005, or we go on an epic run like 58, 66, 78, 87, and 2015.  But nothing that has happened so far indicates this year has gone off track and something has gone wrong. 

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

7 minutes ago, yoda said:

That was a very boring 00z GFS

Calm before the storm? Eerie vibe when a 384 hour op model cant even throw us a flizzard at any time during the entire run in prime climo. Jan 20+ is going to rock 

[BristowWx]

7 minutes ago, yoda said:

That was a very boring 00z GFS

Yes that was quite uninspired. I suppose we need to be prepared for the idea that it may take a while for things to turn around.  

[yoda]

Good thing its just the GFS at LR... those rotating low pressures in the GoA are not good 

[psuhoffman]

Op GFS is close... get that trough in the midwest to dig a little more and the axis a little west and that has potential.  West based NAO block, pretty good pna ridge axis as the trough approaches... there is a lot to like there, unfortunately that vortex in Canada is running some interference.  It can still work if we could get the changes I mentioned.  It's close enough not to give up on it yet. 

[The_Global_Warmer]

41 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Just as an aside...there are years we don't hit that (sometimes we can go 2-3 years in a row without reaching that! 2 inch winters do exist around here too! The reason for the pessimism is because that magic number of 20 inches ain't been reached since 2016. Again, such a stretch isn't abnormal for this region, but...it can make some a bit more antsy). We live in a strange region...where it snows just enough for it to be impossible NOT to expect it like the south...but yet inconsistent enough to be disappointed in those below normal years as if we lived in the north. The Mid-Atlantic snow dichotomy...lol

Living 20 miles from St. Louis it's the exact same. 

We don't get the big storms you guys get.  But our seasonal average is I'd identical to DC.

 

This year from early November through the very start of December we had 16 days with a trace or more.  Since then nothing. 

 

It wouldn't be uncommon to go into late February with nothing. 

 

 

[Maestrobjwa]

23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Op GFS is close... get that trough in the midwest to dig a little more and the axis a little west and that has potential.  West based NAO block, pretty good pna ridge axis as the trough approaches... there is a lot to like there, unfortunately that vortex in Canada is running some interference.  It can still work if we could get the changes I mentioned.  It's close enough not to give up on it yet. 

Wait a minute...so that's why on the op run...the precip is going in on a slant like that? (so that blue vortex in Canada--pardon the terminology--is kinda pushing the system away from the coast?)

[Ji]

tomorrows weeklies will be a step back and we will have to start over again. Bob will say Week 3 and 4 look great. PSU will say the pattern is workable but not quiet there yet.  Cape will say its okay....but to be expected based on the latest ensembles.  Tomorrows meltdowns could be tremendous!

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Wait a minute...so that's why on the op run...the precip is going in on a slant like that? (so that blue vortex in Canada--pardon the terminology--is kinda pushing the system away from the coast?)

That vortex there is making it difficult for the trough to dig and go neutral tilt, its also causing low pressure to our northwest instead of high pressure which interferes in the development of the southern system.  I would rather that vortex just not be there.  That could possibly lead to a warmer overall airmass but I would take my chances...we can't really tap into the true cold anyways with low pressure to our northwest and it's preventing the whole trough from digging in. 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

tomorrows weeklies will be a step back and we will have to start over again. Bob will say Week 3 and 4 look great. PSU will say the pattern is workable but not quiet there yet.  Cape will say its okay....but to be expected based on the latest ensembles.  Tomorrows meltdowns could be tremendous!

If the weeklies actually take a step back I will be disappointed.   I thought the last run took a bit of a step back, but it's still in line with what I expected.  If it starts to push the good look further back...into February instead of later January that I would take as a bad sign.  We will see tomorrow. 

[Ji]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

If the weeklies actually take a step back I will be disappointed.   I thought the last run took a bit of a step back, but it's still in line with what I expected.  If it starts to push the good look further back...into February instead of later January that I would take as a bad sign.  We will see tomorrow. 

i feel like recently...week 3 and week 4 have looked good but we cant get it to week 1 and 2. So we are on this treadmill....had it not been for the November storm..we literally would have seen no flakes yet this year. We blew 3 big December events...the one we needed was a total miss...the other had an amazing upper low but it was a bit too warm.....and then last weeks dud rainstorm. We cant even get one patch of blue on 00z GFS...through 384 hours. Yes it may turn around but i really thought we would be tracking a threat right now instead of tracking the flawed weeklies

[cbmclean]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

I am about a mile south of PA and at about 1050 ft in elevation at about the highest point along Parrs Ridge.  That makes my climo closer to Norwich CT or Providence RI than most of the mid atlantic. 

My average snowfall is about 40".  My median (better indicator of normal) is 33.5".  In the last 30 years 15 here were between 20 and 40" so that is what I consider typical.   8 years were above 40" which is a truly great year imo.    7 years were below 20 which is what I consider a total crap year. 

In effect my snowfall climo is about double most of the urban corridor.  BUT... even up here a pure all snow warning event is pretty rare.  Typically there is only one of those per year even up here in a normal year.  Only in those rare great years do I get a ton of those type storms up here.  A lot of my snow comes from nickel and dime 1-3" clippers and light events, or from the front or back end of storms that feature some mix or rain.  Only rarely do we get a flush hit of 5" plus of all snow even up here.  That is why I LOL at people who have half my median snowfall acting like that type of event is all they will accept and it needs to happen regularly for them to be happy.  They wouldn't even be happen up here most of the time with their expectations. 

So there is a big difference between you and say, Bob Chill in Rockville, in terms of median snowfall?

[Maestrobjwa]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

If the weeklies actually take a step back I will be disappointed.   I thought the last run took a bit of a step back, but it's still in line with what I expected.  If it starts to push the good look further back...into February instead of later January that I would take as a bad sign.  We will see tomorrow. 

What time of day do those usually come out?

[Maestrobjwa]

10 minutes ago, Ji said:

i feel like recently...week 3 and week 4 have looked good but we cant get it to week 1 and 2. So we are on this treadmill....had it not been for the November storm..we literally would have seen no flakes yet this year. We blew 3 big December events...the one we needed was a total miss...the other had an amazing upper low but it was a bit too warm.....and then last weeks dud rainstorm. We cant even get one patch of blue on 00z GFS...through 384 hours. Yes it may turn around but i really thought we would be tracking a threat right now instead of tracking the flawed weeklies

But dude...why did you just assume that when the more knowledgeable Mets here and on Twitter have been saying "Mid-January onward!" since before December? Yes, the early miss was a bit of a gut punch, but...we're still not at the more promising period yet!

[Ji]

But dude...why did you just assume that when the more knowledgeable Mets here and on Twitter have been saying "Mid-January onward!" since before December? Yes, the early miss was a bit of a gut punch, but...we're still not at the more promising period yet!

We just had a 384 hour run in the heart of winter without a single flake and the pattern in the long range on gefs is okay but nothing special

[psuhoffman]

11 minutes ago, Ji said:

i feel like recently...week 3 and week 4 have looked good but we cant get it to week 1 and 2. So we are on this treadmill....had it not been for the November storm..we literally would have seen no flakes yet this year. We blew 3 big December events...the one we needed was a total miss...the other had an amazing upper low but it was a bit too warm.....and then last weeks dud rainstorm. We cant even get one patch of blue on 00z GFS...through 384 hours. Yes it may turn around but i really thought we would be tracking a threat right now instead of tracking the flawed weeklies

THe first week of January actually looks pretty good at H5 even now, but we are not seeing a specific threat materialize and so it doesn't matter.  The storm looks suppressed and so we are ignoring the fact that we look to have a favorable pna/nao pattern.  Not every good look ends up with a snowstorm.  Or maybe the guidance is missing something and we do get snow.  But either way the good look that was on the long range guidance did come to fruition it looks like.  Then week 2 of January now looks like a bit of a relax, not awful but not as good as it looked from longer range.  Then the guidance says it gets better again after that and we will have to see how that goes but so far the long range guidance for January doesn't look like it has been that off.  YET

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

But dude...why did you just assume that when the more knowledgeable Mets here and on Twitter have been saying "Mid-January onward!" since before December? Yes, the early miss was a bit of a gut punch, but...we're still not at the more promising period yet!

We just had a 384 hour run in the heart of winter without a single flake and the pattern in the long range on gefs is okay but nothing special

That's not the heart of winter...mid January on is. Just take some comfort in what PSU just posted about those analogs...some didn't start till the 20th. No sense downing the winter unless things don't look good when we get there...(and even then...some leeway may be necessary--who knows?)

[cbmclean]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

THe first week of January actually looks pretty good at H5 even now, but we are not seeing a specific threat materialize and so it doesn't matter.  The storm looks suppressed and so we are ignoring the fact that we look to have a favorable pna/nao pattern.  Not every good look ends up with a snowstorm.  Or maybe the guidance is missing something and we do get snow.  But either way the good look that was on the long range guidance did come to fruition it looks like.  Then week 2 of January now looks like a bit of a relax, not awful but not as good as it looked from longer range.  Then the guidance says it gets better again after that and we will have to see how that goes but so far the long range guidance for January doesn't look like it has been that off.  YET

Which guidance do you mean?  GFS or EURO (or other).  Ops or ensemble?

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

But dude...why did you just assume that when the more knowledgeable Mets here and on Twitter have been saying "Mid-January onward!" since before December? Yes, the early miss was a bit of a gut punch, but...we're still not at the more promising period yet!

We just had a 384 hour run in the heart of winter without a single flake and the pattern in the long range on gefs is okay but nothing special

day 16 of the GEFS only gets to Jan 12th.  I would argue its better than OK... very negative epo and AO, slightly negative NAO, trough in the east, admitedly the axis too far east but there is more to like than not like and its a cold look.  The whole CONUS east of the Rockies is below normal.  It's close and moving in the right direction up top and still only Jan 12th, a full week before my target date for things to get good. 

[psuhoffman]

11 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Which guidance do you mean?  GFS or EURO (or other).  Ops or ensemble.

All of it...the GEFS/EPS/GEPS all look about the same from a longwave pattern POV.  Details are different obviously but not the kind of thing you would see at range and be picky about. 

The EPS timing doesn't match because the publicly available maps only go to day 10 but if you could see the 5 day mean for 2 days later it would look very close to the GEFS and GEPS.   The general pattern is the same for January 1-7th across guidance. 

 

[cbmclean]

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

All of it...the GEFS/EPS/GEPS all look about the same from a longwave pattern POV.  Details are different obviously but not the kind of thing you would see at range and be picky about. 

The EPS timing doesn't match because the publicly available maps only go to day 10 but if you could see the 5 day mean for 2 days later it would look very close to the GEFS and GEPS.   The general pattern is the same for January 1-7th across guidance. 

 

I see that the EPS has a much stronger South Atlantic ridge.  That makes me nervous. To see it creeping into eastern NC, where I live.

[psuhoffman]

31 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

I see that the EPS has a much stronger South Atlantic ridge.  That makes me nervous. To see it creeping into eastern NC, where I live.

That's only because the free maps for the EPS only go out to 240 so that map is a day earlier than the gefs and geps. EPS beats down the ridge also after that time. 

[Wonderdog]

0z GFS has a look of an overrunning situation IF a few changes takes place around 1/4/19.

[showmethesnow]

After looking at the overnight runs all I can say is...

[showmethesnow]

I will say that the overnight EPS is hinting at a low in the SE or just off the coast during roughly the Jan 5-7th time frame. Not a strong signal but it is there. 500s at that time would suggest the ability for it to run up the coast somewhat. Something to keep an eye on I guess. Otherwise nothing else is really popping up in my mind at this time to focus on. 

eta: And look at what the 06Z GFS just threw out there for the late Jan 7th- early 8th period. 500's are just a touch off though.