December/January Medium/Long Range Discussion

[CAPE]

9 minutes ago, Ji said:

I'd take it

Its workable. This is the type of event that is entirely possible given the set up next week. Just need it a tad colder.

[Ji]

Wave runs the boundary and drops .3-.5 qpf into an ok airmass. Mids are fine but surface is marginal. 

This is your kind of event....marginal...imperfect....sloppy...flawed

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

31 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Wave runs the boundary and drops .3-.5 qpf into an ok airmass. Mids are fine but surface is marginal. 

This is your kind of event....marginal...imperfect....sloppy...flawed

Sounds pretty much like 85% of all our events. 

[Ji]

Its workable. This is the type of event that is entirely possible given the set up next week. Just need it a tad colder.

Makes one really appreciate the mid November crazy event

[psuhoffman]

I still am thinking this evolves towards a stable favorable look later but the 6-10 day period is starting to interest me more. The formation of a ridge bridge across the top is now universal at day 5 across all guidance.   It's only 120 hours not some day 15 dream  

from there we will have a window of opportunity but with a weak fractured PV and minor vortices spinning around under the blocking good luck nailing down specific threats at range  

this look is close to our big storm analogs  

get the vortex over Quebec to the east a bit into 50/50 space and that's darn near ideal.  Or move it west and allow more ridging ahead and it can work too.  But that's close enough not to sleep on the period.  

Its december 26.  The pattern looks good the first week of January.  After that the sub seasonal guidance suggests it gets even better towards late January. The pessimism in here has me confused.  Things are going about exactly as I expected and we are still on the right track to having a good winter imo.

 

[Jandurin]

the pessimism is because it doesn't snow in the midatlantic™

[Maestrobjwa]

14 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Its workable. This is the type of event that is entirely possible given the set up next week. Just need it a tad colder.

What day are we talking about, here?

[Bob Chill]

@ji

Check out the euro control. Never a bad sign when the control run agrees with and is better than the op. Huge spread among the rest of the ens though and don't support the op or control. 

[psuhoffman]

Just now, Jandurin said:

the pessimism is because it doesn't snow in the midatlantic™

It snows almost every year. typucally between 7-18" across the corridor in 60% of years. The other 40% are split between 20% that are better then that and 20% that are worse.

Imo the problem seems to be many act like we are New England and it should snow all the time. Then they disqualify most of the snow we do get because "it came too early or too late" or "it didn't stick to roads" or "it changed to rain" and then continue to complain that it never snows even if it just snowed a few weeks ago!  Seriously when your median snowfall for the whole season is about 12-16" for most around the area how do they get to be so picky?  Im not even close to that picky about how we get snow.  Even if they lived here with my climo they would be disappointed most years. Even up here a pure all snow warning event is a relatively rare thing.  I will never understand setting the bar so high that you will be miserable 80-90% of the time!   

[frd]

Ah, Ben is speaking Vulcan.  Certainly seems logical though   ;-)

( of course the MJO progression might be as tough to figure out as the outcome of the SSWE and NAO phase at long leads  )  

 

 

 

 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

@ji

Check out the euro control. Never a bad sign when the control run agrees with and is better than the op. Huge spread among the rest of the ens though and don't support the op or control. 

They are just all perturbed. 

[TSG]

2 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

1979, 1987, 2015 and 2016 are still possible, but the top-tier winters like 02/03 and 09/10 are already off the table obviously since December was a dud. (Some weenies here did call for those though).

Okay, so if DC set a new annual snowfall record from now through March you still wouldn't consider this a "top-tier" winter?   

[psuhoffman]

This is the best the pattern has looked heading into the heart of our climo in a LONG time. Last two years we had a transient epo dominant cold period around now but the breakdown and following torch was already showing up.  In 2014 and 2015 right now we were still enjoying 60s and endless runs of full Conus ridge.  

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, TSG said:

Okay, so if DC set a new annual snowfall record from now through March you still wouldn't consider this a "top-tier" winter?   

lol I was thinking that but wasn't going to bother...

[CAPE]

23 minutes ago, Ji said:

28 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Its workable. This is the type of event that is entirely possible given the set up next week. Just need it a tad colder.

Makes one really appreciate the mid November crazy event

Except it was 90% rain here, so not so crazy. Just more heavy rain in a year of heavy rain.

So yeah, y'all need to stop whinging.

[clskinsfan]

7-8-1 MJO during our peak climo is so rare around here. IF that happens you can just about guarantee the cold will be there. The only other question is will the storms be there as well?

[WxUSAF]

@psuhoffman that nice GEFS look is right about when today’s euro gets us.

[frd]

[frd]

[psuhoffman]

48 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

@psuhoffman that nice GEFS look is right about when today’s euro gets us.

It's a definite threat window and I'm not sleeping on it. But unfortunately it's a 3 day window and now a long term high probability period. I think that does come...wait for it....after January 20.

[PrinceFrederickWx]

1 hour ago, TSG said:

Okay, so if DC set a new annual snowfall record from now through March you still wouldn't consider this a "top-tier" winter?   

No, because I don’t live in DC and don’t care about them lol

IMBY- still no, must have at least one WSW event in December. Sorry, this is top tier we’re talking about. A+. Flawless.

@Jandurin

November was all rain for me.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

I feel like I've seen this EPO-style threat so many times before. 

[showmethesnow]

LOL. And the 18Z GFS looks as if it will now cut the pre-New Years storm to our west after being suppressive in prior runs. Go figure.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, showmethesnow said:

LOL. And the 18Z GFS looks as if it will now cut the pre-New Years storm to our west after being suppressive in prior runs. Go figure.

Operational guidance is clearly struggling with the details of the overall synoptic set up, but it appears anything that falls through NYD favors mostly/all rain at this point. It is the period immediately following (Jan 2-6) that has looked somewhat interesting IMO for a potentially modest snow/mix event.

[showmethesnow]

5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

H5 looks like the euro at 120 ..and ukmet for that matter 

Trough axis is farther west on the Euro vs the GFS which is more progressive. This difference squashes the follow up system a couple of days later on the GFS.

[showmethesnow]

1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

Agree about the follow up but hr 90-120 was clearly a step towards the euro at h5. 

My bad. I see what you are saying. I am busy trying to do 5 different things at once with my wife also interrupting me so I am losing focus.  I agree it did take a big step towards the Euro on this run. But off run and all that... (showme is trying to get the powers that be on these boards riled up. ) 

[Bob Chill]

Icon says congrats PSU. 

[showmethesnow]

17 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Operational guidance is clearly struggling with the details of the overall synoptic set up, but it appears anything that falls through NYD favors mostly/all rain at this point. It is the period immediately following (Jan 2-6) that has looked somewhat interesting IMO for a potentially modest snow/mix event.

Pretty much falls in line with the EPS 5 day mean (7-12 days) that I threw up this morning. 

I'm not so sure I would rule out something more then just a modest event. If the look the EPS was throwing up has any legs there is the potential for something bigger which would probably be at the end of that period (Jan 5-7?) as the pattern overtop looks to relax somewhat.

[Waiting on snow]

For a place that averages 1-2 feet per year I've never seen so much crying and moaning. You clowns would be suicidal if you lived down here in the Carolina's and had to deal with craptastic winters every year.

[showmethesnow]

7 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said:

For a place that averages 1-2 feet per year I've never seen so much crying and moaning. You clowns would be suicidal if you lived down here in the Carolina's and had to deal with craptastic winters every year.

Do you really think it is necessary to come into another sub-forum and call everyone crying and moaning clowns? Besides a few on this board most have their heads on right and their expectations are in check so you are doing a disservice to most here.