December/January Medium/Long Range Discussion

[SnowGolfBro]

I think the December warm up has been wildly overblown. Sure we have snuck in a few warm days and another couple on the way later this week, but otherwise it’s been seasonal most of the time. I was lucky to score a couple inches with the Southern hit so that may change my overall perspective of winter so far. We have a couple threats to monitor over the next two weeks and then i truly believe the fun will start. If we get shutout in Jan and we are stuck at 384 hours on guidance for a pattern flip up start  to panic. Until then let’s have some faith in NIno climo

[frd]

24 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Case in point? The 2016 blizzard...lol (now I know most won't count that as a "pattern flip" since it was a one-shot deal, but...it was still a climo-beater that followed a shorts-Christmas!)

That  blizzard saved the winter for those West of the Bay where the best dynamics were.

Bob got 30 inches I think,  I only measured 17 inches.  That was a bummer.

For my location I am still waiting on the Ji every 6 year HECS.  ( maybe this year delivers that )   

 

[BristowWx]

Just now, losetoa6 said:

So many moving pieces just in this first little threat on Sunday evening.  SW breaking in 2 pieces,  ns energy,  ne confluence,  se ridging.

 

Explains the wild op run solutions.  Today’s 12z Gfs is a doozy so far.  Cold air evacuation through 210.  

[showmethesnow]

2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Until the NAO can either time itself with some luck during the transient negative phases or actually establish itself for more than 1-2 days we are looking at clipper city once the PAC establishes the better look. Our window now is the transition towards the better PAC (Dec 30-Jan 6?) then clipper city and cold/dry/suppressed as the PAC ridging overwhelms the pattern downstream (Jan 3ish+) then we hope the LR NAO progs actually verify for a change as we enter week 2+ of January and move along. The LR guidance has been handling the PAC a heck of alot better than the NAO so I am still very skeptical of some of the Atlantic looks we are seeing. Like many tho I am hopeful for mid Jan thru much of Feb for a stretch of wild winter threats and weather with the roller coaster pattern in full swing by Valentine's.

If you hadn't noticed the EPS was suggesting a long duration -NAO event on the maps I showed. Doesn't mean that it is right, just means that if in fact we do see that long duration -NAO verify with the pv locked over the Hudson Bay we will get our looks. We could also see the pv farther to the east as seen with the GEFS which in conjunction with the EPO/PNA ridge would give us the dry, very cold look. We could even see no -NAO. IMO all options are still very much on the table. The only point of my post was to show the importance of inserting the pv in the general vicinity of the Hudson Bay and nothing more. Now if in fact we see the EPS come close to verifying then we will get our looks within the next 15 days, and probably some very good looks to boot. The question is, is the EPS right?

[aldie 22]

Gfs must be saying warm ABC just said 60 on new year's 

[psuhoffman]

37 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I’m fully onboard with the plan for Jan 15-March 1 being prime time. But at the moment I’m just ready to see some flakes and get some dustings or slush that gets washed away or anything. I think we get some snow, nothing major but something, in the next 2 weeks. But if somehow we don’t, it would be pretty crappy to not even see a flake between November 15 and January 15. 

I keep thinking about Boston’s 2015 lately after seeing someone post it on twitter. The chowdaheadz had like 6” total on January 25 or so. Then they had 100” in the following 5 weeks. That won’t happen to us obviously, but having seasonal totals of 3-6” on January 15 or 20 doesn’t mean this winter won’t be epic.

I'm with you. And I think the chances of lucking our way into a front end 1-3" on a west track or some weak follow up wave that clips us or a clipper once the epo goes ape next week...is pretty good. But I also know that won't even come close to satisfying the "doom and gloom" crew.  For then it's warning event or bust and I really think we probably have to wait a bit longer for that. Not definitely. Flukes happen. But the most likely time for a truly epic snow period is and has always been from about January 20 on. You are completely realistic in your expectations. Some others...not so much. 

[NorthArlington101]

Gfs must be saying warm ABC just said 60 on new year's 

I think ABC might be trolling, it shows 39 at DCA.

Or it’s just bold local forecasting.

[psuhoffman]

One last thing. The guidance didn't "tease" us and then pull it away next week. From range they showed a -nao +pna pattern the first week of January. But from range discreet threats cannot be seen. People assumed that 1 there would be a storm and 2 that look was the start of a longer term -nao pattern. 

Now thar guidance can see beyond it indicates perhaps another relax before going into a better stable look. And despite the favorable pna and nao the guidance has not yet identified a real threat. So people are acting like the models faked us out. But they didn't. This is the gefs now. It still shows the great h5 look it did when it was at day 15. Just because your yard didn't get snow doesn't mean the guidance was off. Not all good patterns lead to snow!

 

[Yeoman]

I'm just hoping I don't go a full 2 months before seeing flakes this season - the ones in here are no substitute

[aldie 22]

8 minutes ago, Yeoman said:

I'm just hoping I don't go a full 2 months before seeing flakes this season - the ones in here are no substitute

It's as simple as that really

[Chris78]

Fv3 so close to a good hit for the pre NYE threat. We need about a 50 to 100 mile shift for the cold push and we would be in business.  Fv3 is basically a 3 to 6 inch storm up in central/southern pa

[Chris78]

Fv3 doesn't have the best snow algorithm  but this shows how close we are to something good.

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, Chris78 said:

Fv3 so close to a good hit for the pre NYE threat. We need about a 50 to 100 mile shift for the cold push and we would be in business.  Fv3 is basically a 3 to 6 inch storm up in central/southern pa

Rain is the predominant solution. GEFS backed off from its 06z run.

Good news for rain enthusiasts though, the mean precipitation is an additional 2.5' right through DCA and BWI before the New Year!

[NorthArlington101]

Also, FWIW, any chance at a real snowstorm after NYD on the GEFS (for this run) has been delayed until the 4th. 

 

[Chris78]

8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Rain is the predominant solution. GEFS backed off from its 06z run.

Good news for rain enthusiasts though, the mean precipitation is an additional 2.5' right through DCA and BWI before the New Year!

At this range the GEFS will play follow the leader.  GFS showed rain so it's not surprising the members are also showing rain. I agree the best bet will be wet not white but the fv3 is very close to some snow atleast at the onset.

[PrinceFrederickWx]

2 hours ago, PhineasC said:

LOL now we are punting to mid-January?

Not too long ago we were punting to early January.

Bad sign, folks.

1979, 1987, 2015 and 2016 are still possible, but the top-tier winters like 02/03 and 09/10 are already off the table obviously since December was a dud. (Some weenies here did call for those though).

[Jandurin]

You can't grade a winter.

[frd]

There was thought back in November from some Mets I reade was that the SSTs in the SW Pac would support less time in warmer phases of the MJO and more time in the colder phases. 

Yet that remains elusive at this time , and the final outcome is still to be determined.   

Seems the typical run of extremes continues this time with the MJO 

And from an emotional forecast tool using the lenght of a JB Daily Update things will take more time.

JB's video was under 2 minutes. Not sure the December weatherBell forecast but December will end up above average,  like most Decembers in the 2010s

 

[PrinceFrederickWx]

2 minutes ago, Jandurin said:

You can't grade a winter.

Yes you can, we do it all the time here. :-)

Highest theoretical grade this winter could get would still be an A- since I *did* get some December snow. But that would require a HECS, snow every month in JFM and a snow event starting at least on New Year’s Eve.

[Jandurin]

I totally meant to write "before it's happened"

 

lol my mind is broken.

Also what about November snow. That was a pretty good snow.

[Bob Chill]

Too much wrangling in here. lol. We're still 4 days away from being remotely in the game. 20 days of Jan with nothing? Yea, I won't take that bet. We're moving into a @PhineasC pattern. Not terrible, not great, but sneaky. We're absolutely not moving into a long track pattern. We may not even see our next "event" until it suddenly pops up in the mid range. 

 

[frd]

Some cold temps in that mix below, also keep in mind the lastest GEFS is showing the potential for West based blocking prior to this time frame near Jan 3rd.

You could possibly speculate if that West based blocking did develop could be a storm threat followed by very cold air mass. 

       

 

[Ji]

Euro baby! Boom...what a great start to January

[Ji]

Dr no say ya

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

Dr no say ya

Sorry dude. It's not Jan 20th yet. 

[peribonca]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

Dr no say ya

Can you elaborate for those of us with only TT access?

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, peribonca said:

Can you elaborate for those of us with only TT access?

Wave runs the boundary and drops .3-.5 qpf into an ok airmass. Mids are fine but surface is marginal. 

[NorthArlington101]

Euro baby! Boom...what a great start to January

meh, DC doesn’t even get below 32. White rain.

[Ji]

I'd take it

[frd]

cool animation with the -NAO