December/January Medium/Long Range Discussion

[aldie 22]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You're cherry picking bad runs. There have been several runs that gave us snow. The euro spit out a big snow a couple days ago. Yesterday the gfs and Fv3 took turns showing a snowstorm. If what you mean is the models haven't been consistently showing a threat run after run, that's not going to happen at range in a progressive pattern. Outside 100 hours storms will shift around run to run. 

That said I'm not as impressed with the prospects the next 2 weeks as some. It's not a shutout pattern and we could luck into one of these waves but epo dominant patterns aren't a lock for our area this time of year either. I still think our best chances are late January and February. 

I don't necessarily disagree that I may be cherry picking I think we all do that to fit our chosen narrative...that said my cherry picking happens to be the last few runs of the two best models so theres that.

[Ji]

I don't necessarily disagree that I may be cherry picking I think we all do that to fit our chosen narrative...that said my cherry picking happens to be the last few runs of the two best models so theres that.

The latest run for me takes precedence. Not the euro run from 3 days ago. January is looking like one of those "January is gonna be rockin months"

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

10 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

I don't necessarily disagree that I may be cherry picking I think we all do that to fit our chosen narrative...that said my cherry picking happens to be the last few runs of the two best models so theres that.

The latest run for me takes precedence. Not the euro run from 3 days ago. January is looking like one of those "January is gonna be rockin months"

I've moved on to 'February will be rockin'.

[Scraff]

2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I've moved on to 'February will be rockin'.

Cool. What year you thinkin? Gotta plan ahead. 

[osfan24]

13 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I've moved on to 'February will be rockin'.

Are we talking Bruce Springsteen or Barry Manilow?

[Ji]

Good patterns will show fantasy snowstorms....

6z GFS and FV3 and 00z euro lol

[PivotPoint]

40 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You're cherry picking bad runs. There have been several runs that gave us snow. The euro spit out a big snow a couple days ago. Yesterday the gfs and Fv3 took turns showing a snowstorm. If what you mean is the models haven't been consistently showing a threat run after run, that's not going to happen at range in a progressive pattern. Outside 100 hours storms will shift around run to run. 

That said I'm not as impressed with the prospects the next 2 weeks as some. It's not a shutout pattern and we could luck into one of these waves but epo dominant patterns aren't a lock for our area this time of year either. I still think our best chances are late January and February. 

 

34 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

I don't necessarily disagree that I may be cherry picking I think we all do that to fit our chosen narrative...that said my cherry picking happens to be the last few runs of the two best models so theres that.

I love when people say “cherry picking” when discussing weather modeling. There is in fact no such thing. The term cherry picking can only be use in the sense of the phrase when discussing outliers and their realative distribution away from a mean. So, in weather modeling every single model run is A) independent from all other runs, B))intrinsically lacks continuity i.e. Lorenz’s Chaos Theory.

So there is no such thing as cherry picking model runs. For our snow chances, model runs typical sequence could go: Good, bad, bad, good, good, bad, good, bad, bad, get the point. In the previous data set which one would you tell another that they cherry picked — the good or bad run?

Anyways, all that aside I liked showmethesnow’s analysis above. However, I just can’t take anything at face value when talking about PV and NAO domain features beyond 3-5 days. I think it’s a fruitless exercise. The predicatablity and verification of ensembles to accurately predict those features at that range is basically as good as guessing one number out of a hundred, right. Low odds.

I look at it more simplistically. What I like is something I mention a couple weeks back when I saw the trough get dumped into the western states and stay put for a time being. Eventually, with enough reload of heights being ramped in AK and that trough axis swinging east, something timed (or better with NAO help) would provide us with some opportunities. 

But I put no stock in foguring out the NAO domain beyond 3-5 days. Never seems to play out unless it is a stable and dominant feature. Then there’s some accuracy predicting beyond that.

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

Good patterns will show fantasy snowstorms....

6z GFS and FV3 and 00z euro lol

We aren't there yet. I am still somewhat interested in next week, but I concur with PSU that odds are we are looking at mid month and beyond for legit chances at significant winter storms.

[aldie 22]

3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

We aren't there yet. I am still somewhat interested in next week, but I concur with PSU that odds are we are looking at mid month and beyond for legit chances at significant winter storms.

Mid month has been your narrative for some time now. 

[nj2va]

 00z CMC has snow showers at 240 for Ji.  Winter’s saved.  

[CAPE]

10 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Mid month has been your narrative for some time now. 

It has, but I still think the pattern will be good enough to produce something other than rain, probably a modest event, over the next 10 days. And man I will take modest at this point. I was excited to see the heavy frost this morning.

[87storms]

1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said:

Age old question...what's better....total snowfall vs total number of events? 25" of snow in 2-3 events or 25" in 8-10 events?

I'm one who appreciates each event individually...of course I want more snow but I don't control that...what I can control is my enjoyment of each event. 

Its only December 26th...January 20th is only 25 days away.

2-3 events.  i don't need 8-10 snow days, and as fun as blizzards are, they take a while to clear out which has its cons.  6-10" events are the sweet spot.  i'd take 2-3 of those every season and call it a winter.  

[Superstorm]

2-3 events.  i don't need 8-10 snow days, and as fun as blizzards are, they take a while to clear out which has its cons.  6-10" events are the sweet spot.  i'd take 2-3 of those every season and call it a winter.  

Give me a 3 foot blizzard and I would be happy.

 

I travel a lot for work. 2” to 3” of snow in 10 events just makes travel more of a havoc.

 

 

.

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

Cleaning out my attachment folder and accidentally deleted one from my post above. Here is the reposted map.

Until the NAO can either time itself with some luck during the transient negative phases or actually establish itself for more than 1-2 days we are looking at clipper city once the PAC establishes the better look. Our window now is the transition towards the better PAC (Dec 30-Jan 6?) then clipper city and cold/dry/suppressed as the PAC ridging overwhelms the pattern downstream (Jan 3ish+) then we hope the LR NAO progs actually verify for a change as we enter week 2+ of January and move along. The LR guidance has been handling the PAC a heck of alot better than the NAO so I am still very skeptical of some of the Atlantic looks we are seeing. Like many tho I am hopeful for mid Jan thru much of Feb for a stretch of wild winter threats and weather with the roller coaster pattern in full swing by Valentine's.

[PCT_ATC]

48 minutes ago, Ji said:

Good patterns will show fantasy snowstorms....

6z GFS and FV3 and 00z euro lol

...

 

[MillvilleWx]

38 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

We aren't there yet. I am still somewhat interested in next week, but I concur with PSU that odds are we are looking at mid month and beyond for legit chances at significant winter storms.

I've been barking this for a while now. Pretty sure Isotherm was saying this was the case in his Seasonal Outlook too in November. In fact, I think his forecast has been pretty good so far. I hope it comes to fruition since I'll be in town by then 

[PhineasC]

LOL now we are punting to mid-January?

Not too long ago we were punting to early January.

Bad sign, folks.

[Jandurin]

the only difference between early and mid january is 2 weeks

[Eskimo Joe]

5 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

LOL now we are punting to mid-January?

Not too long ago we were punting to early January.

Bad sign, folks.

If there's not a legit threat by Jan 15th on the guidance then its going to get incredibly ugly in here.

[NorthArlington101]

FWIW, the 06z GEFS was the best-looking run for the pre-NYD storm over the course of the last 5 runs. 

6 solid hits, with 2 warning level storms for the area in the mix. 

5 decent hits, by decent I mean a .5"-1.5"er for most of us. 

Only 6 total blanks. 

[PhineasC]

4 minutes ago, Jandurin said:

the only difference between early and mid january is 2 weeks

It's not a positive sign when the good snow patterns on guidance stay at 10-15 days out and never get closer. Some of our worst winters have had that routine.

I'll remain hopeful since our climate seems shifted now to Feb and early March being our snowiest period. 

 

[frd]

The MJO is so interesting to look at these days, Euro with one progression , the GFS with another progression. 

Depending on the progression, again it seems to indicate a transition to a sustained pattern change here near Jan 10th and after. 

@donsutherland1 posted this AM the first in forever the SOI has turned negative. 

The entire thread below is an awesome read about the MJO and how things might roll forward in Jan.    

I read in an awesome thread started by Eric Webb about the MJO stated that <   the one area of the globe where the GFS is capable of consistently beating the ECMWF on the MJO is when a subseasonal wave is initialized over the Maritime Continent. >

 

 

 

[frd]

More on the MJO

 

[frd]

Interesting some changes in the Bering sea area 

 

[frd]

Maybe a bit more agreement now as things are underway.  

 

[psuhoffman]

56 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

LOL now we are punting to mid-January?

Not too long ago we were punting to early January.

Bad sign, folks.

You and anyone else has every right to be pessimistic. But don't go all revisionists history to enhance your point.  Most have been targeting the second half of January and February from the beginning. I know I've not budged. 

At times a threat has teased and there is always the chance something hits before the ideal pattern evolves. While the analogs greatly favor Jan 20 on for snow a few had fluke snows before that and no two years are the same so it's worth tracking in hope of a early hit. But 99% of the predictions were for most of the snow to come the second half of winter.  That's nino climo. Nothing is going wrong so far. This year is playing out exactly according to climo expectations so far.  We had an early cold period and nearly got the one big early hit some nino years feature. It just missed. Boo hoo. Then we got the late December warm period that is almost universal across ninos. 

Myself and others said we should see the signs of the pattern starting to change by New Years.  We are seeing it already. But it's not going to flip right to perfect. 

Now I don't know what some had as expectations. Maybe some simply heard "above normal snow" and then had visions of a white Christmas and beating climo by New Years and now they are disappointed. But those expectations would have absolutely no support from modoki nino climo or the vast majority of seasonal forecasts. 

48 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

If there's not a legit threat by Jan 15th on the guidance then its going to get incredibly ugly in here.

Didn't you jump when we didn't get a foot of wet snow on Christmas?  

[frd]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We had an early cold period and nearly got the one big early hit some nino years feature. It just missed. Boo hoo. Then we got the late December warm period that is almost universal across ninos. 

As mentioned last week , some of the great late December warm ups have resulted in some awesome pattern flips in the meat oif Winter. 

 

[WxUSAF]

I’m fully onboard with the plan for Jan 15-March 1 being prime time. But at the moment I’m just ready to see some flakes and get some dustings or slush that gets washed away or anything. I think we get some snow, nothing major but something, in the next 2 weeks. But if somehow we don’t, it would be pretty crappy to not even see a flake between November 15 and January 15. 

I keep thinking about Boston’s 2015 lately after seeing someone post it on twitter. The chowdaheadz had like 6” total on January 25 or so. Then they had 100” in the following 5 weeks. That won’t happen to us obviously, but having seasonal totals of 3-6” on January 15 or 20 doesn’t mean this winter won’t be epic.

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, frd said:

As mentioned last week , some of the great late December warm ups have resulted in some awesome pattern flips in the meat oif Winter. 

 

Case in point? The 2016 blizzard...lol (now I know most won't count that as a "pattern flip" since it was a one-shot deal, but...it was still a climo-beater that followed a shorts-Christmas!)

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, frd said:

As mentioned last week , some of the great late December warm ups have resulted in some awesome pattern flips in the meat oif Winter. 

 

Absolutely great stuff you posted as always. Amazing how things have evolved towards what HM and some of the other experts predicted with an initial wave leading to a PV collapse later.  The bottom line is the PV continues to be weak and under assault and is likely to remain so as we head into prime climo.