psuhoffman Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 7 minutes ago, nj2va said: That's exactly what I'm thinking, too. Early signs of the progression to a favorable pattern is now appearing...makes sense given we're now in the first days of January on these LR ensembles. Everyone should just enjoy the holidays and by New Years we will have better things to talk about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 That's what I'm talking about on the 18z GFS. If the storm hangs back a little bit, it could end as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 8 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: That's what I'm talking about on the 18z GFS. If the storm hangs back a little bit, it could end as snow. For where? Snowshoe? Give it up, Chuck. Its a goddamn rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 Oh wow, weeklies look amazing and the good pattern sets in week 3 and never leaves. Strongest -nao signal I've ever seen on the weeklies. I'll post a few images shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 Weeklies begin to get good around the 10th, and then go completely awesome beyond that, straight through until the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 weeklies just saved winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: Oh wow, weeklies look amazing and the good pattern sets in week 3 and never leaves. Strongest -nao signal I've ever seen on the weeklies. I'll post a few images shortly. Wow is right...you beat me too it...Textbook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 lolz. I been getting ninja'd a lot lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 2 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: weeklies just saved winter? Grain of salt. They have looked good before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 Been telling everyone to chill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 It's plenty good well before this panel but the neg nao is literally on fire going into Feb. If global ens start looking like the week 3 progression then it's a pretty good sign and not far away... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Oh wow, weeklies look amazing and the good pattern sets in week 3 and never leaves. Strongest -nao signal I've ever seen on the weeklies. I'll post a few images shortly. I never quite get how the weeklies count weeks. I would think week 3 starts New Year’s Eve. Is that right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: lolz. I been getting ninja'd a lot lately Doesn't mean right we can't get some good snow chances before then?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 Just now, BristowWx said: Grain of salt. They have looked good before. We appear to start breaking in the right direction already and that's only in a couple weeks. I agree about weeks 4-6 being crazy talk but if the week 3 looks fills in with the eps/gefs over the next week then I'm going to get kinda excited... Could be the real deal here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: It's plenty good well before this panel but the neg nao is literally on fire going into Feb. If global ens start looking like the week 3 progression then it's a pretty good sign and not far away... Yeah thats my fav panel from the run. Monster Davis Strait block ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 Everything started fine. But right now the mjo and soi spike are temporarily running interference. Neither of those things will last. When they come off we should resume our regularly scheduled modoki nino programming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Oh wow, weeklies look amazing and the good pattern sets in week 3 and never leaves. Strongest -nao signal I've ever seen on the weeklies. I'll post a few images shortly. Again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: We appear to start breaking in the right direction already and that's only in a couple weeks. I agree about weeks 4-6 being crazy talk but if the week 3 looks fills in with the eps/gefs over the next week then I'm going to get kinda excited... Could be the real deal here. Agree. We shall see but way guarded for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I never quite get how the weeklies count weeks. I would think week 3 starts New Year’s Eve. Is that right? Here's week 3. It's not perfect but serviceable. As long as this type of longwave pattern sets up first week of Jan then we're back in the game at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: Here's week 3. It's not perfect but serviceable. As long as this type of longwave pattern sets up first week of Jan then we're back in the game at least Yeah nice. Cutter risk verbatim for wound up storms but could easily get something modest with that look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 Pretty sweet look by mid Jan though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 6 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Grain of salt. They have looked good before. All the seasonal and sub seasonal guidance looks identical. And they look exactly like a composite of the analogs. And there are current indications the PV is in big trouble. There are reasons to believe this more than just because the euro says so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Again? I just want the pac flamethrower to go away. Any ridging in the pna and/or epo region to kick off the new year will put a lot of people at ease. The upcoming week or 2 is going test the patience of even the most relaxed snow weenies... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I just want the pac flamethrower to go away. Any ridging in the pna and/or epo region to kick off the new year will put a lot of people at ease. The upcoming week or 2 is going test the patience of even the most relaxed snow weenies... Nice that at least the 24-26th will be the coldest days of that stretch. Anything to avoid another 60F+ around Xmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 26 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Been telling everyone to chill I don't think my cynicism will end until I'm shoveling...lol Because even with a great look, I worry about the random bad luck screwing us all season for just no reason whatsoever! As long as we get some hits (even if we have to miss a couple)...then it's OKAY... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: I don't think my cynicism will end until I'm shoveling...lol Because even with a great look, I worry about the random bad luck screwing us all season for just no reason whatsoever! I'm going to list every pattern that had a perfect setup and just failed to deliver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I just want the pac flamethrower to go away. Any ridging in the pna and/or epo region to kick off the new year will put a lot of people at ease. The upcoming week or 2 is going test the patience of even the most relaxed snow weenies... 2 weeks of waiting is nothing, really...that is, IF we can take advantage of a good 4-6 week look at some point and not get screwed over multiple times by random stuff. Quite frankly...I'm more worried about the random stuff than the right look materializing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I'm going to list every pattern that had a perfect setup and just failed to deliver. I can think of better ways for you to spend your evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I'm going to list every pattern that had a perfect setup and just failed to deliver. Oh I know all too well that randomness can screw up a great setup--just some years have better "luck"...and unfortunately, ya can't forecast that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 29 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I just want the pac flamethrower to go away. Any ridging in the pna and/or epo region to kick off the new year will put a lot of people at ease. The upcoming week or 2 is going test the patience of even the most relaxed snow weenies... Amen. It's good to see the negative height anomalies getting out near the Aleutians in the weeklies, and NOT in the Gulf of AK. I can deal with a couple of meh weeks the rest of this month and keep an eye on a transition to something a lot better as we get into January. Only exception is that I've about had it with the 2-day rain-fests. Christmas may not be white, but dammit, at least let's have it be dry and not a miserable washout like this past weekend (and again later this week)! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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