December/January Medium/Long Range Discussion

[BristowWx]

Just now, Wonderdog said:

I'm not either.  That's what I think it shows now. A slightly stronger HP than it was at 12z. Will be fun tracking this one.

It’s does show that.  I have no idea but my negative mental state has yielded bupkus....so I am reversing course and headed for another port of call.

[Wonderdog]

1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

It’s does show that.  I have no idea but my negative mental state has yielded bupkus....so I am reversing course and headed for another port of call.

If there is a phase, that might be a big arse snowstorm, if the timing is right. 

[Maestrobjwa]

32 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Don't be such a negative Nancy. Happy Hour has giveth us a minor xmas miracle- snow TV heading into NYE! Plus there is plenty of time for steps forward.

And for those of us watching the Ravens game on Sunday--we literally would be watching snow on TV, lol

Merry Christmas everyone!

[Bob Chill]

12 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

If there is a phase, that might be a big arse snowstorm, if the timing is right. 

There's a lot of scenarios that an h5 setup like that can work around here. Everything from a pure southern stream overrunning wave to a partial phase coastal, to a full phase coastal, to a pure northern stream shortwave. Expect to get teased and trolled by the models over the next 4 days or so. Lol

[aldie 22]

18 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

There's a lot of scenarios that an h5 setup like that can work around here. Everything from a pure southern stream overrunning wave to a partial phase coastal, to a full phase coastal, to a pure northern stream shortwave. Expect to get teased and trolled by the models over the next 4 days or so. Lol

Feels like we are on cut and paste mode this winter. It just needs to snow again regardless of the setup...merry merry everyone 

[WVclimo]

Days 12-16 on the FV-3 look like a lot of fun.  Thumb projection ridge nosing into the Yukon Territory, split flow, and a PV dropping across Hudson Bay.

[Bob Chill]

Really nice gefs run at 18z. Not perfect on the atlantic side but damn nice. Already showing signs of pac energy undercutting the pna ridge with a very strong -epo at the end of the run. Cold and snowy for a lot of areas comes to mind if this panel is right and pac shortwaves come into the west.

Not a single member gives DC the finger through the next 16 days as well...

 

 

[Bob Chill]

54 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Feels like we are on cut and paste mode this winter. It just needs to snow again regardless of the setup...merry merry everyone 

It's coming. All signs point to good times ahead. More confident than I've been all year. 

[Ji]

Really nice gefs run at 18z. Not perfect on the atlantic side but damn nice. Already showing signs of pac energy undercutting the pna ridge with a very strong -epo at the end of the run. Cold and snowy for a lot of areas comes to mind if this panel is right and pac shortwaves come into the west.

Not a single member gives DC the finger through the next 16 days as well...

 
 

Were stuck on 384 hours...we are not going to last 384 more hours lol....

[Ji]

Feels like we are on cut and paste mode this winter. It just needs to snow again regardless of the setup...merry merry everyone 

We need to get something next week.....waiting till jan 15 to get your first inch of snow in an epic winter is nuts

[Ralph Wiggum]

16 minutes ago, Ji said:

1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said:

Feels like we are on cut and paste mode this winter. It just needs to snow again regardless of the setup...merry merry everyone 

We need to get something next week.....waiting till jan 15 to get your first inch of snow in an epic winter is nuts

Define 'epic winter'.

[nj2va]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

Really nice gefs run at 18z. Not perfect on the atlantic side but damn nice. Already showing signs of pac energy undercutting the pna ridge with a very strong -epo at the end of the run. Cold and snowy for a lot of areas comes to mind if this panel is right and pac shortwaves come into the west.

 

Not a single member gives DC the finger through the next 16 days as well...

 

 

 

 

Some pretty pinks showing up on those maps.  

[nj2va]

18z FV3 has a parade of snowstorms in the uber LR...I feel like one of the signs of a good pattern coming is when OPs start spitting out snowstorms at ease.  

[clskinsfan]

Great 18Z runs this evening. I am just happy to see storms heading into our peak climo period starting to show up. Merry Christmas everyone!

[Bob Chill]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

Were stuck on 384 hours...we are not going to last 384 more hours lol....

Lol. Did you look at the run?  Our first chance is in just 120 hours. Looks like at least 2 more before the end of the run. 

Since you like chasing digital snow more than shoveling real snow you're going to have a blast next couple weeks. Mutiple digital threats without having to shovel anything. 

[aldie 22]

31 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Lol. Did you look at the run?  Our first chance is in just 120 hours. Looks like at least 2 more before the end of the run. 

Since you like chasing digital snow more than shoveling real snow you're going to have a blast next couple weeks. Mutiple digital threats without having to shovel anything. 

Lol you asked if he looked at the run...come on Bob

[Buddy1987]

1 hour ago, nj2va said:

18z FV3 has a parade of snowstorms in the uber LR...I feel like one of the signs of a good pattern coming is when OPs start spitting out snowstorms at ease.  

FV3 for sure has to spark your interest in fantasyland 100%. Idc if I got multiple heavy mixed events. Any type of winter precip is gonna be sweet in a pattern setup such as what it showed. 

[nj2va]

1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said:

FV3 for sure has to spark your interest in fantasyland 100%. Idc if I got multiple heavy mixed events. Any type of winter precip is gonna be sweet in a pattern setup such as what it showed. 

Absolutely, I’d be happy with any frozen event to track...should be a fun period coming up.  

[yoda]

00z GFS is boring for any real storm threats... 00z FV3, on the other hand is very nice.  Decent hit for late Dec 30-31 is shown on the snow maps but the frozen/rain maps for that period don't seem to add up (shows rain across the region as snow accums increase)... and then another hit on Jan 3-4

Large brutal arctic blast then comes in starting Jan 5th till the end of the run looking at the 850s

[yoda]

Looking through the GEFS individual members for our threats:

Till around NYE:

 

Through the 4th of Jan:

 

And then till the 9th of Jan:

 

The GEFS members seem to be more or less hinting at 3 different storm threat time periods... but they are still kind of muddled.

[yoda]

00z took a small step back compared to 18z

[Ji]

As usual the euro hates us and snow...at least thru day 7

[aldie 22]

We aren't really even getting digital threats yet...on one hand I'm glad because chasing unicorns brings out the loons...on the other hand...feels like a red flag. If we have to wait then we wait...but as I said earlier...some of you mf'ers ain't gonna make it 

[BristowWx]

10 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

We aren't really even getting digital threats yet...on one hand I'm glad because chasing unicorns brings out the loons...on the other hand...feels like a red flag. If we have to wait then we wait...but as I said earlier...some of you mf'ers ain't gonna make it 

Agree.  Take the 6z for example today.  Unless I missed it, there is not one flake of snow for the entire run that I can see for anyone in the subforum.  That is discouraging. 

[BristowWx]

And the FV3 agrees with not one virtual threat.  

[showmethesnow]

Seeing as the overnight models seemed to step back on the lazy man's/women's method of determining our snowfall chances (snowfall maps), thought I would throw up something I liked seeing on the EPS.

Have mentioned numerous times over the last month that I would like to see a piece of the PV planted somewhere on our side of the globe and preferably over the general region of the Hudson Bay. For a time there the models were suggesting that the pv would for the most part rotate to the other side of the globe and though we can score in such a scenario, especially during prime climo, it does handicap us for the most part in regards to temps and a much more volatile setup especially through the mid-latitudes. On the other hand putting a pv on our side of the globe will tend to provide colder temps to work with as well as a tendency to provide a more stable pattern. When we see that pv placed in the general region of the Hudson Bay though we see our chances increase a good deal as it tends to create a domino effect across the board as key features respond positively to its location. Well the EPS delivers this run. 

This is the 1-5 day mean at 500's. Notice we have a building -NAO, 50/50, positive tilt trough at the mid latitudes into the SW and the PV planted firmly over the Hudson Bay.

 

Here is the day 6 through 10 mean. Notice the features are the same as above except we are seeing the mid latitude trough less positively tilted as the base has rotated eastward somewhat. Now I will try to explain what we are seeing with these different features, why we are seeing it and what they mean. 

As many are aware troughs normally are either in a positive, neutral or negative state. For our chances in the mid-Atlantic we generally prefer a positive state west of the Mississippi, neutral around the Mississippi and the trough going negative tilt as it moves through the east. Now what a pv will try to do is force the mid-latitude flow/trough below it to conform to its positioning. Hence the preferred location over the Hudson Bay. What this tries to do is establish the mid-Latitude trough at a neutral state right on the Mississippi. But many may notice that the mid-latitude trough is at a positive state west of the Mississippi on the two previous examples so what does that mean. The examples above are nothing more then a static snapshot of a 5 day mean. They don't convey what is occurring day to day as troughs are rotating through the CONUS. Troughs that will tend to reach a neutral tilt around the Mississippi and going negative tilt as they move eastward. 

Now something else I wanted to mention when it comes to this particular pv placement. We quite often see ridging build into Greenland (-NAO). They tend to go hand in hand. Also with the flow setup in front of the pv we also see lows amplify off the east coast and move into the 50/50 region and get trapped (often a steady stream that can reinforce the established 50/50). Needless to say, this -NAO/50/50 combo is often a key feature seen with our mid-atlantic storms.

 

Which brings us to the day 7 to 12 five day mean. Where the previous 2 examples showed a decent amount of potential the one below shows a great deal of potential. Think of it as slots (gambling reference because I will be in Vegas in a couple of weeks, YEAH BABY!!!) You have been priming the machine for hours then you start getting some decent hits and teases of a jackpot (previous 2 examples above) then you hit the stage (below) where you just know the Jackpot is there for the taking if you just don't run out of money first (in this case time),

What we are seeing is the pv over the Hudson Bay has been steadily forcing the mid level trough axis eastward until it is just beginning to broach a neutralish tilt over the Mississippi. A -NAO is in place with a 50/50 underneath it. In the Atlantic we are seeing higher heights extending up the coast from the southeast. This look has Jackpot written all over it as any energy sliding to the south will begin to amplify east of the Mississippi and run up the coast. Now this doesn't mean we score here. Far from it. Just means that odds are extremely favorable. For all we know the EPS could flat out be wrong. All I know is I would take this look in a heartbeat as I was pulling out my snow shovel.

 

 

Now just to point out how crucial the pv placement can be here is roughly the 5 to 10 day mean on the overnight GEFS. It is placing the pv well east of the Hudson Bay. This in turn is attempting to force the mid-latitude trough axis eastward where we would see the neutral state well east of the Mississippi almost to the east coast. So any lows running to our south will be suppressed and they will not begin to amplify and gain latitude until well OTS. This look pretty much says well below average cold and for the most part dry. Could probably expect quick hitting clippers in this pattern but anything of substance would be pretty much off the table.

*** Was cleaning out my attachment folder and accidentally deleted this last map. Not sure if it will show up now so will repost the map in another post below.

 

 

[winterymix]

Good eval, showmethesnow.  The consensus seems to be an expectation for about six weeks of good core to the midAtlantic winter, something along the

lines of 42 to 47 days.  The stepdown can take 3 to 4 weeks.  So, as others have said, the good times roll from Jan 15 to Feb 20?  

That final panel above, looks like a southern VA special; all part of the stepdown.  Climatology, baby!

[aldie 22]

Age old question...what's better....total snowfall vs total number of events? 25" of snow in 2-3 events or 25" in 8-10 events?

I'm one who appreciates each event individually...of course I want more snow but I don't control that...what I can control is my enjoyment of each event. 

Its only December 26th...January 20th is only 25 days away.

[showmethesnow]

Cleaning out my attachment folder and accidentally deleted one from my post above. Here is the reposted map.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said:

We aren't really even getting digital threats yet...on one hand I'm glad because chasing unicorns brings out the loons...on the other hand...feels like a red flag. If we have to wait then we wait...but as I said earlier...some of you mf'ers ain't gonna make it 

You're cherry picking bad runs. There have been several runs that gave us snow. The euro spit out a big snow a couple days ago. Yesterday the gfs and Fv3 took turns showing a snowstorm. If what you mean is the models haven't been consistently showing a threat run after run, that's not going to happen at range in a progressive pattern. Outside 100 hours storms will shift around run to run. 

That said I'm not as impressed with the prospects the next 2 weeks as some. It's not a shutout pattern and we could luck into one of these waves but epo dominant patterns aren't a lock for our area this time of year either. I still think our best chances are late January and February.