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December/January Medium/Long Range Discussion

WinterWxLuvr

By WinterWxLuvr,
in Mid Atlantic

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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
Posted
56 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I like the look of this panel. Potential not realized this run, but here we go again with the delicate interplay between the ss s/w and northern stream energy rotating down.

gfs_z500a_namer_28.thumb.png.09932bc5a4fae15e44d148c38580ed60.png

At a glance, Looks like my favorite....overrunning. Where do we sign?

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Courtesy of the strong EPO/PNA ridge the GEFS is advertising in the long range.

day15temps.gif.150471a9abcb73d6203ba13c567208b6.gif

Its definitely trended to the EPS idea of a big a$$ -EPO/+PNA driving some big time cold into the east.

Cold and dry, lol? We need to score an event or 2 before going into the deep freeze.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Its definitely trended to the EPS idea of a big a$$ -EPO/+PNA driving some big time cold into the east.

Cold and dry, lol? We need to score an event or 2 before going into the deep freeze.

Yea, the epo pushing basically into Siberia would be a lock for strong cross polar flow and arctic invasion. But as you said, it's a dry look not only for here but everywhere in the conus except maybe on the southern edge of the boundary (would be waaay south of our area). 

One of the reasons I liked the weeklies week 3-4 is because it keeps the epo going but opens the door for the pac jet to undercut the pna ridge. That would feature an active gradient period across the conus. Could be very good for our area as long as the cold hangs around. 

Overall (imo) Jan is starting to look really good. Multiple chances before the arctic invasion followed by bay ice tracking followed by overrunning bonanza. That works with me 

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Yeah 850s below freezing north of DC. Haven’t seen precip yet

Not very exciting. Surface is way warm for any accum snow. Northern tier gets T-2" but still warm. Close enough though. Starting to see some convergence on a similar solution.  Temps will be an obstacle. Not getting a clean push of colder air like we saw a few days ago. 

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
Just now, Bob Chill said:

Yea, the epo pushing basically into Siberia would be a lock for strong cross polar flow and arctic invasion. But as you said, it's a dry look not only for here but everywhere in the conus except maybe on the southern edge of the boundary (would be waaay south of our area). 

One of the reasons I liked the weeklies week 3-4 is because it keeps the epo going but opens the door for the pac jet to undercut the pna ridge. That would feature an active gradient period across the conus. Could be very good for our area as long as the cold hangs around. 

Overall (imo) Jan is starting to look really good. Multiple chances before the arctic invasion followed by bay ice tracking followed by overrunning bonanza. That works with me 

I like the concept. My yard needs to get on the board though lol. Then I am totally up for some arctic cold and frozen bays. Like you, I really like the advertised progression on the weeklies, with a potentially active transition, and then moving into a pattern that is somewhat less PAC driven, and with developing HL blocking. Pretty classic Nino look for the end of Jan into Feb.

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frd

frd

Posted
Posted

 

  • from Earthlight , a very good summary

Wanted to provide some brief discussion here to touch base on my initial thoughts from a few weeks ago. Since that time, we have seen a few key things occur:

 

1) The MJO amplitude continues to adjust and most reliable ensemble guidance is struggling (this includes the ECMWF)

2) There have been a few more "head-fakes" in regards to a snowy/cold pattern in the Eastern US in very late December and very early January

3) The SSW has begun and will continue over the next several days, leading to a major change in the stratosphere

 

All of these things fall in line with initial discussion from a few weeks ago. The gradual process that was discussed is underway, and the seeds are in place for the development of a colder/snowier pattern in the Eastern United States by the middle part of January. In the next 72 hours a large Siberian high will descend southward and the development of a deep Aleutian low will develop as an EAMT event gets underway. This is the first warning shot of the changing pattern, especially in the Northern Pacific Ocean. 

 

Most guidance is in good agreement that by the New Year (time frame beginning 1/1), an elongated ridge will be in place across the Western United States and into parts of British Columbia. This will be the first "attempt" at a more favorable pattern while most  hemispheric forcing is still on the periphery of favorable stages. There is the potential for a transient system impacting the Eastern US with wintry weather during this time frame. The overall progression of the waveguide here is still in the developmental stages. Note: There may very well be a period of moderation near 1/5 across the Central (perhaps Eastern?) USA as the entire pattern "snaps" back to support the development of an even more noteworthy WNHEM ridge. Do not panic.

The more notable developments come during the time frame after 1/7, as the MJO/AAM (among many other things) begin having a major impact and the pattern can really start to dig its heels in. It is not a coincidence that guidance is suggesting the poleward propagation of a large ridge into British Columbia during this time frame. The potential for colder than normal air and stormy conditions should really begin to crescendo once we approach 1/15 as the subtropical jet begins to extend once again. 

All of this will be somewhat modulated by the Atlantic side of things, which looks increasingly likely to feature a UK ridge that builds gradually westward toward the NAO regions as wave breaking events continue. It remains to be seen exactly how well these two features (the poleward Pac ridge and tropospheric blocking in the Atlantic) are able to harmonize, but they eventually will. The window for that begins from 1/15 and continues to the end of the month in my opinion. 

 

The stratospheric "happenings" will likely only serve to exacerbate the potential for blocking and cold, but it remains to be seen exactly how effectively the downwelling process occurs. There is increasing confidence in a major SSW and the downwelling effects should at least begin by 1/7 with some increased support for a secondary W2 event. This lends credence to the idea that high latitude blocking in the Atlantic could begin to crescendo by late January, with ridging making further inroads toward Greenland and the Davis Strait with the development of a -NAM state. 

To wrap it up...my thoughts remain unchanged overall. The seeds are in place for the development of a colder and snowier pattern in the Eastern US, with the crescendo toward this pattern really building toward 1/15 and the threats continuing thereafter. We are really just beginning to watch the most important parts of the evolution toward a more favorable pattern.

The harmony of poleward Pacific ridging and Atlantic blocking may reach a peak in the third week of January, which is when I suspect we may begin to start talking about a very significant winter storm. 

 Anyway....Merry Christmas

 

 

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WxUSAF

WxUSAF

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Not very exciting. Surface is way warm for any accum snow. Northern tier gets T-2" but still warm. Close enough though. Starting to see some convergence on a similar solution.  Temps will be an obstacle. Not getting a clean push of colder air like we saw a few days ago. 

I’d love t-2” at this point. Need to just see snowflakes soon.

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, frd said:

 

  • from Earthlight , a very good summary

Wanted to provide some brief discussion here to touch base on my initial thoughts from a few weeks ago. Since that time, we have seen a few key things occur:

 

1) The MJO amplitude continues to adjust and most reliable ensemble guidance is struggling (this includes the ECMWF)

2) There have been a few more "head-fakes" in regards to a snowy/cold pattern in the Eastern US in very late December and very early January

3) The SSW has begun and will continue over the next several days, leading to a major change in the stratosphere

 

All of these things fall in line with initial discussion from a few weeks ago. The gradual process that was discussed is underway, and the seeds are in place for the development of a colder/snowier pattern in the Eastern United States by the middle part of January. In the next 72 hours a large Siberian high will descend southward and the development of a deep Aleutian low will develop as an EAMT event gets underway. This is the first warning shot of the changing pattern, especially in the Northern Pacific Ocean. 

 

Most guidance is in good agreement that by the New Year (time frame beginning 1/1), an elongated ridge will be in place across the Western United States and into parts of British Columbia. This will be the first "attempt" at a more favorable pattern while most  hemispheric forcing is still on the periphery of favorable stages. There is the potential for a transient system impacting the Eastern US with wintry weather during this time frame. The overall progression of the waveguide here is still in the developmental stages. Note: There may very well be a period of moderation near 1/5 across the Central (perhaps Eastern?) USA as the entire pattern "snaps" back to support the development of an even more noteworthy WNHEM ridge. Do not panic.

The more notable developments come during the time frame after 1/7, as the MJO/AAM (among many other things) begin having a major impact and the pattern can really start to dig its heels in. It is not a coincidence that guidance is suggesting the poleward propagation of a large ridge into British Columbia during this time frame. The potential for colder than normal air and stormy conditions should really begin to crescendo once we approach 1/15 as the subtropical jet begins to extend once again. 

All of this will be somewhat modulated by the Atlantic side of things, which looks increasingly likely to feature a UK ridge that builds gradually westward toward the NAO regions as wave breaking events continue. It remains to be seen exactly how well these two features (the poleward Pac ridge and tropospheric blocking in the Atlantic) are able to harmonize, but they eventually will. The window for that begins from 1/15 and continues to the end of the month in my opinion. 

 

The stratospheric "happenings" will likely only serve to exacerbate the potential for blocking and cold, but it remains to be seen exactly how effectively the downwelling process occurs. There is increasing confidence in a major SSW and the downwelling effects should at least begin by 1/7 with some increased support for a secondary W2 event. This lends credence to the idea that high latitude blocking in the Atlantic could begin to crescendo by late January, with ridging making further inroads toward Greenland and the Davis Strait with the development of a -NAM state. 

To wrap it up...my thoughts remain unchanged overall. The seeds are in place for the development of a colder and snowier pattern in the Eastern US, with the crescendo toward this pattern really building toward 1/15 and the threats continuing thereafter. We are really just beginning to watch the most important parts of the evolution toward a more favorable pattern.

The harmony of poleward Pacific ridging and Atlantic blocking may reach a peak in the third week of January, which is when I suspect we may begin to start talking about a very significant winter storm. 

 Anyway....Merry Christmas

 

 

I like that finish.

 

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
28 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I’d love t-2” at this point. Need to just see snowflakes soon.

Me too man. It's on the table across guidance now. Just need to root for the cold push to be just a tad better than what is modeled now. We just witnessed getting way too much of a good thing a few weeks ago. Lol. Maybe this time things can line up better. 

Historically we don't do well with weak cold/timing events but it's the first chance at winter wx and only 5 days out. Hopefully wave 2 materializes as well. I'm feeling pretty good. Keep the chances coming and we'll walk right into an event. 

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BristowWx

BristowWx

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Eps def improved for both chances in the next 10-11 days. Muddy and not a strong signal but our area is clearly  in the game for both chances. Can't really complain about it

Can’t complain you say?  We’ll see about this.  Aleet Aleet..Ji please report to the forum level..Ji to the forum level

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MD Snow

MD Snow

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Eps def improved for both chances in the next 10-11 days. Muddy and not a strong signal but our area is clearly  in the game for both chances. Can't really complain about it

Sure it's still 5-6 days out but it seems the model's have been all over the place with these 2 chances. Normally, it's to be expected but lately I feel like the models have been locking in a bit more quickly on things - seems like the thursday night/fridays storm has been a lock for like a week already. . Heck, the Canadian doesn't even have a storm on the 30th. One run of the GFS is north the next more suppressed. You still have quite the spread in terms of solutions. Expecting things to really start narrowing in over the next 2 days. I feel like either way the best case scenario for the MA is a snow to mix and ending as drizzle type deal. Glad we've got some things to track. 

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Happy hour GFS has light snow on the 30th.

Temps are pretty warm. Never gets below freezing the night before except for far northern tier. Verbatim I don't think any snow would stick near the cities. That may end up being a tough challenge to overcome but it would only apply if there's precip. Lol. 

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
39 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Temps are pretty warm. Never gets below freezing the night before except for far northern tier. Verbatim I don't think any snow would stick near the cities. That may end up being a tough challenge to overcome but it would only apply if there's precip. Lol. 

Don't be such a negative Nancy. Happy Hour has giveth us a minor xmas miracle- snow TV heading into NYE! Plus there is plenty of time for steps forward.

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