December/January Medium/Long Range Discussion

[CAPE]

New edition of the weeklies look ok- really good actually. Transition from a big -EPO look early-mid Jan to a more typical late winter Nino look, with NA blocking end of the month into Feb. Pretty much as expected based on the EPS 0z run, and and preponderance of winter outlooks.

[CAPE]

Nice panel. Feb will be rockin?

 

[aldie 22]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

Not when Richmond gets a foot....

We got a foot too....up our ass

Damn man aren't you at church?

[Wonderdog]

NWS now forecasting rain and snow for next Sunday night and Monday.

[Bob Chill]

45 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

New edition of the weeklies look ok. Transition from a big -EPO look early-mid Jan to a more typical late winter Nino look, with NA blocking end of the month into Feb. Pretty much as expected.

I thought the transition during week 3 into 4 looked really good for January. That h5 look would imply a very active pacific and our area on the winning side of a gradient. 

Eta: Weeklies look solid in general. Even week 3. All guidance is currently pointing towards being back in the game around NYE without a hint of the wheels coming off down the line. The current shutout pattern we're in now may end up being the worst this winter throws at us.

 

[CAPE]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

I thought the transition during week 3 into 4 looked really good for January. That h5 look would imply a very active pacific and our area on the winning side of a gradient. 

Yeah I like that look better than what precedes it, which might be on the dry side. The advertised look beyond that needs no words. Potentially epic given Nino/late winter climo.

I said the weeklies looked 'ok', but they look pretty great tbh. I am just in a chill mood, drinking G&Ts on Xmas eve.

[nj2va]

41 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah I like that look better than what precedes it, which might be on the dry side. The advertised look beyond that needs no words. Potentially epic given Nino/late winter climo.

I said the weeklies looked 'ok', but they look pretty great tbh. I am just in a chill mood, drinking G&Ts on Xmas eve.

I also like the total period is wetter than average from the SE through the MA.  Very Nino-ish.

[Bob Chill]

33 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I also like the total period is wetter than average from the SE through the MA.  Very Nino-ish.

Agree. Looks really good. Week 3 has been doing pretty well the last few weeks. Ens mostly agree with the +pna/-epo period coming up in early Jan. It's not a good pattern for snow in our region but would be cold so that's good. If ens start undercutting the pna ridge then it would be another good week 3 performance. 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

New edition of the weeklies look ok- really good actually. Transition from a big -EPO look early-mid Jan to a more typical late winter Nino look, with NA blocking end of the month into Feb. Pretty much as expected based on the EPS 0z run, and and preponderance of winter outlooks.

 

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

I thought the transition during week 3 into 4 looked really good for January. That h5 look would imply a very active pacific and our area on the winning side of a gradient. 

Eta: Weeklies look solid in general. Even week 3. All guidance is currently pointing towards being back in the game around NYE without a hint of the wheels coming off down the line. The current shutout pattern we're in now may end up being the worst this winter throws at us.

 

It's coming. I haven't wavered on late January or February at all. Way too much evidence (between the analogs, seasonal, and sub seasonal guidance) to bail on it.

But there was a point where I had some hope maybe this was one of the more rare ninos that flipped cold and snowy sooner.  And while I do think we can easily score during the transition periods odds favor the really good stuff being Jan 20 on.  I'm totally ok with that but some are going to be ready to burn this place down if we don't get a decent snow in the next few weeks. 

[frd]

Pretty good this week in weather by DT just released. 

DT riding the MJO and states the best comes after Jan 10th and seemed to also mention Jan 20th a few times. Still a good video, watching a possible event near Jan 7th  prior to the main cold and stormy pattern depicted fy the CFS and the Euro weeklies. 

The NAO comes about a bit later. In an off hand way I believe HM alluded to this in his string of posts today. but, I enter a disclaimer, its  best you read HM yourself.  

DT did show an experimental MJO model he showed takes the MJO along faster.  

 

[CAPE]

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

It's coming. I haven't wavered on late January or February at all. Way too much evidence (between the analogs, seasonal, and sub seasonal guidance) to bail on it.

But there was a point where I had some hope maybe this was one of the more rare ninos that flipped cold and snowy sooner.  And while I do think we can easily score during the transition periods odds favor the really good stuff being Jan 20 on.  I'm totally ok with that but some are going to be ready to burn this place down if we don't get a decent snow in the next few weeks. 

Although I think we probably see some frozen the next 2 weeks, I am fine waiting till Jan 15 or so. It would not be surprising. We waited until mid Feb a few winters ago, and still had a pretty epic period. We ain't Maine. If we get 3 or 4 good weeks, no matter when it happens, we have had a good winter.

[nj2va]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

It's coming. I haven't wavered on late January or February at all. Way too much evidence (between the analogs, seasonal, and sub seasonal guidance) to bail on it.

But there was a point where I had some hope maybe this was one of the more rare ninos that flipped cold and snowy sooner.  And while I do think we can easily score during the transition periods odds favor the really good stuff being Jan 20 on.  I'm totally ok with that but some are going to be ready to burn this place down if we don't get a decent snow in the next few weeks. 

Agree.  Not much more to say beyond we just have to be patient until mid month (good luck to some on here).  Hopefully before then we can score a few minor events...I do like Bob’s idea that generally when we have some cold around with precip nearby...out of 3-4 chances we’d score at least one which is being advertised the 1st week of Jan.  

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Although I think we see some frozen the next 2 weeks, I am fine waiting till Jan 15 or so. It would not be surprising. We waited until mid Feb a few winters ago, and still had a pretty epic period. We ain't Maine. If we get 3 or 4 good weeks, no matter when it happens, we have had a good winter.

People loved 87 but there was nothing until after January 20th that year. Same in 78 and 66. We seem to be getting more picky. I just want snow. I don't care if it comes in June. 

[CAPE]

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

People loved 87 but there was nothing until after January 20th that year. Same in 78 and 66. We seem to be getting more picky. I just want snow. I don't care if it comes in June. 

Yeah the SB 1987 storm was a great one here, and there was a moderate event that preceded that, but not much of anything before. I remember that as a very good winter.

eta- wasn't there a big storm in mid Feb too? I remember a paste bomb that was supposed to stay south, until it didn't.

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah the SB 1987 storm was a great one here, and there was a moderate event that preceded that, but not much of anything before. I remember that as a very good winter.

eta- wasn't there a big storm in mid Feb too? I remember a paste bomb that was supposed to stay south, until it didn't.

Yes. The whole winter was really that. There were 3 storms in mid to late January. One hit nw one was region wide and one was the SE half. Then a big wet snow event mid February. But that was a blockbuster year. By today's standards I bet the boo bird crowd would give it a B- at best. Lol

[psuhoffman]

16 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah the SB 1987 storm was a great one here, and there was a moderate event that preceded that, but not much of anything before. I remember that as a very good winter.

eta- wasn't there a big storm in mid Feb too? I remember a paste bomb that was supposed to stay south, until it didn't.

This 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Yes. The whole winter was really that. There were 3 storms in mid to late January. One hit nw one was region wide and one was the SE half. Then a big wet snow event mid February. But that was a blockbuster year. By today's standards I bet the boo bird crowd would give it a B- at best. Lol

Sun angle issues and all..probably a C+.

That really was a great winter though. It snowed a lot in a short time frame, and in the exact window when we would expect it to. People romanticize the big ticket Dec that so rarely happens. Its nice to think about, but totally neurotic to expect.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

This 

That was a wild event here. Had over a foot in my yard but not too far south it was mostly rain until the end. Easton ended up with 4-5" I think.

[psuhoffman]

@EastCoast NPZ would have hated 87. Nothing until late January. Then the February storm was awesome but all melted a day later. I was living in NJ then and we had about a foot. The day after we had to travel to harpers ferry wv for a baptism. By the time we got to Maryland there was barely any snow on the ground. By harpers ferry only piles. I remember I assumed they didn't get as much only to find out from my uncle that had had 16" but it all melted in a few hours that day because it was so warm. 

[frd]

10 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

That really was a great winter though. It snowed a lot in a short time frame, and in the exact window when we would expect it to. People romanticize the big ticket Dec that so rarely happens. Its nice to think about, but totally neurotic to expect.

We had our December in November. 

Sounds funny, but an interesting post by bluewave where in Novembers  ( In New York city ) that had significant snowfall and/or cold ( specifics escape me now ) the following Decembers hardly ever follow up delivering with more significant snow. Make sense in a way. 

I assume it takes a lot for the pattern to be able to deliver that early in the season, and naturally you expect a warm up, and time for a reload. 

I think the progression for us is arriving on time even if there are many who are impatient. 

Mother Nature can deliver wicked weather our way in a matter of weeks in late Jan and Feb, and I  am still looking for a active March.   

     

[CAPE]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

@EastCoast NPZ would have hated 87. Nothing until late January. Then the February storm was awesome but all melted a day later. I was living in NJ then and we had about a foot. The day after we had to travel to harpers ferry wv for a baptism. By the time we got to Maryland there was barely any snow on the ground. By harpers ferry only piles. I remember I assumed they didn't get as much only to find out from my uncle that had had 16" but it all melted in a few hours that day because it was so warm. 

That was a classic marginal airmass with dynamic/evap cooling deal, where the storm took a perfect track. I remember it being sunny and around 50 the day of, and it started snowing in the evening with temps right at 32. It literally should have been rain lol. The old saying- it likes to snow in Feb- was never more true.

[HighStakes]

9 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

That was a classic marginal airmass with dynamic/evap cooling deal, where the storm took a perfect track. I remember it being sunny and around 50 the day of, and it started snowing in the evening with temps right at 32. It literally should have been rain lol. The old saying- it likes to snow in Feb- was never more true.

Yup that's exactly what happened. After that storm winter was over. I think I recall a March event that busted.

Aside from that February storm the winter was essentially a 1 week winter. The first storm got us good on Jan. 22nd. We ended up the the good side of a bust. I was living between pikeville and Owings mills and got 14-16 inches. That was followed by an arctic front. The 2nd storm on Superbowl Sunday into Monday morning dropped around 6. The higher total were south and east. Where I live now probably got only 4 but that's a guess. A few days after the 2nd storm there was a clipper but more like warm front that had an intense but short period of snow that dropped a quick 2-3 and up to 4 inches some areas. That was it until the above mentioned February storm.

I'm sure many here would be unhappy with those results but I would sign up for a repeat in a minute.

[psuhoffman]

22 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

Yup that's exactly what happened. After that storm winter was over. I think I recall a March event that busted.

Aside from that February storm the winter was essentially a 1 week winter. The first storm got us good on Jan. 22nd. We ended up the the good side of a bust. I was living between pikeville and Owings mills and got 14-16 inches. That was followed by an arctic front. The 2nd storm on Superbowl Sunday into Monday morning dropped around 6. The higher total were south and east. Where I live now probably got only 4 but that's a guess. A few days after the 2nd storm there was a clipper but more like warm front that had an intense but short period of snow that dropped a quick 2-3 and up to 4 inches some areas. That was it until the above mentioned February storm.

I'm sure many here would be unhappy with those results but I would sign up for a repeat in a minute.

There was a 6" storm up here just before that period that was rain in the cities. But other then that you nailed 87. 

[yoda]

00z GFS made no friends in here tonight

[EastCoast NPZ]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

@EastCoast NPZ would have hated 87. Nothing until late January. Then the February storm was awesome but all melted a day later. I was living in NJ then and we had about a foot. The day after we had to travel to harpers ferry wv for a baptism. By the time we got to Maryland there was barely any snow on the ground. By harpers ferry only piles. I remember I assumed they didn't get as much only to find out from my uncle that had had 16" but it all melted in a few hours that day because it was so warm. 

Remember that one well.   Played bball outside in shorts that afternoon and some of the heaviest snow that night that I have seen.  14" at my home in Warren county, and nearly every bit gone that next day.  Glad for the day off school then, but wouldn't do much for me now.

[Ji]

00z GFS made no friends in here tonight

I thought it looked better for nye's

This is a weird look though

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2018122500&fh=384

[Bob Chill]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

I thought it looked better for nye's

This is a weird look though

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2018122500&fh=384

I thought it was fine too. Same 2 chances showing up. Need to get inside of 5 days before worrying about smaller details 

[Ji]

I thought it was fine too. Same 2 chances showing up. Need to get inside of 5 days before worrying about smaller details 

Fv3 gave us 3 fat pitches and we fouled them of. Dec 30...dec 31...jan 2

[BristowWx]

2 hours ago, Ji said:

3 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

I thought it was fine too. Same 2 chances showing up. Need to get inside of 5 days before worrying about smaller details 

Fv3 gave us 3 fat pitches and we fouled them of. Dec 30...dec 31...jan 2

Yes those were not successful batting opportunities.  See what Santa delivers this morning.  

[showmethesnow]

Looks as if the models are locked in on the general setup leading into the system that will impact our region just before the first of the year. Boundary will be setting up through the general region with a weak system running to our south before it hits the coast and begins to strengthen as it heads OTS. The setup has potential. How much potential will be ironed out as the finer details begin to get nailed down in the coming runs. Being as we are now within 5 days the op runs should be given increasingly more weight as they can now are getting within their range to focus on these finer details that the ensembles can not provide. 

Several things we probably want to focus on at this point. Where does the actual boundary set up (ensembles are favoring through MD at this point)? This will be determined by the interplay between the SE ridging and the high to our north. How deep and warm are the surface and low level temps that are below the 850's that will support snow? Other wise we are looking at white rain at the best. How strong is the low as it moves to our south? A stronger low will tend to push the boundary north but will also provide better over running where rates can potentially overcome low level warmth.  And when does the low actually begin to strengthen? Strengthens a little sooner and potentially we could see colder air drawn in from our NE to flip the rain to snow. 

Now I haven't been particularly enthused over the last few days with this system for the general DC/Balt region and south. But after looking over the overnight runs I do see the potential and I thought they both moved in a positive direction to boot. 

At this point in time I myself would favor any possible snow (besides white rain) being on the extreme northern edges of the heavier precip probably being confined to north and west of the cities up to the MD/PA line because we are really fighting temps at the lower levels. But at 5 days much can still change within the finer details so DC/Balt are still very much in the game.